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| Title: | 探究選舉預測的潛在威脅 : 以民意調查中未表態選民投票行為為例
An Inquiry into Potential Threat On Election Prediction: An analysis of Nonresponse in Survey Research |
| Authors: | 沈庭如
Sheng, Ting-Ju |
| Contributors: | 蔡宗漢
Tsai, Tsung-Han
沈庭如
Sheng, Ting-Ju |
| Keywords: | 選舉預測
項目無反應
最大機率投票原則
累加機率投票原則
Election prediction
Item nonresponse
Maximum probability voting principle
Cumulative probability principle |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-02-12 15:52:24 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 選舉預測是投票行為研究中一個普遍關注的議題，選舉預測不僅提供民眾
訊息，亦是競選幕僚作為競選策略的參考依據。同時，選舉預測亦提供研究者能夠將理論方法與事實結合並加以印證的機會。近年來，學術界或是媒體所執行以及公布的選舉預測相當多，而這些選舉預測的資料來源大多是透過住宅電話訪問進行的民意調查為主。然而以民意調查作為選舉預測的工具，勢必會面臨到受訪者沒有提供有效的答案作為分析依據的難題，而回答不知道、無意見、很難說或者是拒絕回答（稱之為項目無反應）。在民意調查中常會面臨項目無反應的問題，尤其在選舉期間所做的民意調查，受訪者雖然接受了訪問，但是在投票意向上，時常會因為各種因素而不願意回答。受訪者雖然在不願意在投票意向上回答有效的答案，但並不表示他們完全沒有任何偏向，只是不願意讓人直接得知真正的意向而已。故此，在進行預測時，無反應的回答該如何處理變是一個嚴謹的步驟。
本研究運用2014年以及2016年「台灣選舉與民主化調查研究」資料，利用兩種不同的選舉民調資料找出在本文的兩個理論架構下，項目無反應對於選舉預測的影響以及何種預測模型所估計的方式平均誤差會較佳。
整體結果顯示，在兩種不同層次的選舉中，透過全國性選舉可以發現受訪者會因為越接近投票日而越容易表態，但其表態的結果無法直接利用於估計得票率，且受訪者會因為社會期許而回答出符合現況的回答。其估計的結果亦顯示出受訪者在進行投票抉擇時的確具有不確定性，且此不確定性可以用累加機率投票原則估計出受訪者對於候選人選擇的機率，進而降低估計的誤差。
Election prediction is in the spotlight of the voting behavior research as it not only provides the public but also the campaign staff the information on electoral competition. Election prediction also enables the researchers to test their theory. Recently, the number of election prediction implemented and announced by academia and media is increasing. Much of the information was collected from opinion poll by the telephone interview method. However, the respondents are likely to provide invalid answer (nonresponse) such as do not know, no comment, hard to say or refuse to answer in survey. The nonresponse problem is common in the opinion poll. This situation is even worse in those opinion poll conducted during the election cycle. The respondents are not willing to answer their voting choice due to various factors. In fact, the respondents who provide invalid responses maybe simply just refuse to express their opinion. Therefore, we should be more cautious to deal with the nonresponse.
Specifically, this study analyzes the 2014 and 2016 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) data to examine the impact of the nonresponse on the election prediction and explore the results of what voting principle is better.
The result shows that between two different levels of election, the respondents become more willing to express their opinion when the polling day is closer. However, the opinion expressed is unable to be used to estimate the voter turnout. Furthermore, the respondents answer a “reasonable” answer due to the social atmosphere. The results also show that there is uncertainty for the respondent in their voting choice, and this uncertainty can be included into the estimated probability of respondents` choice of candidates, which in turn reduces the estimated error. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
政治學系
103252013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1032520135 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/THE.NCCU.PS.001.2019.F09 |
| Appears in Collections: | [政治學系] 學位論文
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