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| Title: | 中共對台軍事孤立策略與效果
China`s Military Isolation Strategy toward Taiwan and Its Effects |
| Authors: | 許志嘉
Hsu, Chih-Chia |
| Contributors: | 東亞研究 |
| Keywords: | 中共對台政策;兩岸關係;外交孤立;軍事孤立;軍售;中美關係
China`s Taiwan Policy;Cross-Strait Relations;Diplomatic Isolation;Military Isolation;Arms Sale;Sino-American Relations |
| Date: | 2004-07 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-03-28 10:18:58 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 從理論分析架構而言，一個國家對另外一個國家採行外交孤立，可區分為政治外交、軍事、經濟和社會文化等四種不同領域。在軍事領域孤立方面，又可概分為軍事協議、派駐軍事代表、軍事訪問、武器轉移、軍事援助和軍事合作等六個不同指標。中共長期以來對台灣採取外交孤立策略，其中，對台軍事孤立既是中共外交政策的重要工作，也是對台政策、國防政策的重要一環。從政策宣示來看，中共對台軍事孤立政策主要是讓台灣不能與其他國家結成軍事同盟，發展軍事合作？係，使台灣一旦發生戰爭，在軍事上陷入孤立無援的困境，並迫使其他國家不能售台武器或轉移武器科技，以使台灣的軍事裝備無法更新，實質軍事能力無法提升，在兩岸軍事平衡中失去與中共解放軍對抗的力量，進而減低解放軍攻台的阻力，提高攻台的成功率。在具體的對台軍事孤立策略與作為方面，中共的策略包括：軍事外交拉攏圍堵、外交斡旋經貿利益阻止軍售、外交抗議經貿制裁報復軍售、利用軍售孤立台灣。從中共對台軍事孤立效果來看，軍事協議、派駐軍事代表、軍事援助方面，台灣面臨的困境最大，幾乎除了邦交國之外，便很難能有所突破。軍事訪問幾乎也以邦交國為主，但美國、新加坡等少數國家是例外。軍事合作方面，新加坡長期與台灣進行軍事合作，也是少數例外。包含軍售在內的武器轉移是中共對台軍事孤立最主要項目，但卻也是台灣最積極爭取的項目。基於歷史因素，只有超級強權美國是被中共「認可」售台武器的國家，也只有美國有實力可以擋住中共的壓力，因此，美國仍然是台灣突破中共軍事孤立的主要對象。在現實的國際社會，中共是當前一超多強格局中的中心力量之一，日本、俄羅斯、歐盟等中心力量顯然無法與台灣採取更緊密的合作，一個選擇與中共對抗的台灣，便只能尋求美國的協助，在外交政策與國防政策上，只能受到美國的高度影響，甚至接受美國的宰制。
Military isolation toward Taiwan is an important issue for China’s foreign policy, Taiwan policy, and national defense policy. The diplomatic isolation could be divided into four areas: diplomatic/political, military, economic, and social/cultural isolation. In the area of military isolation, there are six indicators to explain the degree of isolation. Military agreements, military representation, military visits, arms transfer (including arms purchases and sales), military aid, and military cooperation are the six indicators used in this paper to analyze the military isolation. China’s first goal of military isolation toward Taiwan is to force Taiwan not to have a military alliance with the other nation and not to develop military cooperation. Therefore, once the Taiwan Strait war occurs Taiwan would fall into an isolated situation. The second goal of China’s military isolation toward Taiwan is to force the other nations not to sale arms and transfer military technology to Taiwan. Once Taiwan’s military equipments could not be proliferated the military balance between Taiwan and China would be changed, and that would reduce the resistant capability of Taiwan in a possible war. The strategies of China’s military isolation toward Taiwan include military diplomacy to make friends with the other nations, retaliation toward those nations that sale arms to Taiwan, diplomatic negotiation to deter a possible arms sale to Taiwan, and using arms sale to isolate Taiwan. From the effects of China’s military isolation toward Taiwan, the military agreements, military representation, and military aid are the most severe isolation areas for Taiwan. In the field of military visits, most military visits happened between Taiwan and her friendly nations except for the U.S. and Singapore. In the field of military cooperation, Singapore is almost the only nation publicly have military cooperation program with Taiwan. Arms sale is the most important target for China to isolate Taiwan, but Taiwan also tried her best to get arms. The United States is the most important arms supplier for Taiwan, and that’s why Taiwan has no chips on the arms sale negotiation with the U.S. |
| Relation: | 東亞研究, 35(2), pp.71-106 |
| Data Type: | article |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究] 期刊論文
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