政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/125805

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/125805

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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Department of Economics > Theses > Item 140.119/125805

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/125805

Title:	深度學習於台灣指數期貨之應用 : 經驗模態分解下之長短期記憶神經網路建模 Application of Deep Learning in Taiwan Index Futures : Long-term and Short-term Memory Neural Network Modeling Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition
Authors:	莊彥哲 Chuang, Yan-Che
Contributors:	陳樹衡莊彥哲 Chuang, Yan-Che
Keywords:	人工智慧深度學習神經網路長短期記憶模型遞迴神經網路機器學習 K-近鄰演算法經驗模態分解日內資料金融時間序列趨勢預測當沖交易
Date:	2019
Issue Date:	2019-09-05 17:07:54 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文中我們主要的目標是想要基於深度學習模型(Long Short Term Memory Network，縮寫LSTM)，並結合經驗模態分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition，EMD分解)將期貨的分鐘頻率日內資料分解為有意義的頻率信號，將人工智慧應用於預測金融時間序列走勢，且實際用於期貨市場的當沖交易。預測金融時間序列走勢的一直都不是個簡單的任務，主要是因為金融時間序列的非定態，具有序列相關。於是我們想結合專門將時間序列分解成多個獨立且有頻率意義信號的經驗模態分解(EMD分解):以及具有長期記憶、寫入、清除、輸出，專門處理時間序列資料的長短期記憶神經網路模型(LSTM)，並運用模型輸出結果實際在歷史資料上交易回測，然後計算模型效能、策略績效，最後與傳統的機器學習(本文中以具有隱藏層以及多神經元的深度學習區分傳統上統計學的機器學習方法)演算法K-近鄰演算法(K Nearest Neighbor. KNN)做比較。經過實驗我們成功找出EMD分解與LSTM、KNN的最佳預測區間長度，且經由實驗證明EMD分解確實能有效幫助中、短期的金融時間序列趨勢預測，以及深度學習模型LSTM的效能在相同資料處理方式下明顯優於傳統機器學習方法KNN。
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 105258033
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258033
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU201900955
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Economics] Theses

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