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    題名: 高雄氣爆後的房價被市場暴棄了?
    Does the Housing Price Drop Dramatically after Kaohsiung Gas Explosions?
    作者: 林士淵
    Lin , Shih-Yuan
    徐士勛
    Hsu, Shih-Hsun
    陳琮仁
    Chen, Tsung-Jen
    貢獻者: 地政系
    關鍵詞: 高雄氣爆;實價登錄;地理資訊系統;差異中的差異法
    Kaohsiung Gas Explosions;Real Estate Transaction;Geographic Information System;Difference-in-Differences
    日期: 2018-12
    上傳時間: 2019-11-26 14:41:41 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 為了分析 2014 年高雄氣爆事件對氣爆區域房屋總價的影響,我們整理氣爆前後兩年高雄市的房屋實價登錄交易資料並輔以『地理資訊系統』完成房屋的空間定位,之後我們在最適對照組的時空資料範圍下利用『差異中的差異法』進行分析。我們發現,「災害陰影效應」對平均總房價的負向影響在氣爆後9個內並沒有顯著高於「更新效應」的正向影響;相對地,「更新效應」淨效果隨氣爆時間經過而較可能顯著拉抬房價。分量迴歸分析更顯示高總價房屋在氣爆3個月後就顯著受益於「更新效應」的抬價效果,而低總價的物件則遲至氣爆後9個月才顯著呈現此正向效果。整體而言,氣爆後「更新效應」淨效果對氣爆區房價的總拉抬效應高於公私部門投入的復建與修繕更新總經費。
    In order to analyze the impact of the gas explosion accident occurred in Kaohsiung in 2014 on the property price over the gas explosion area, we accessed the official real estate transaction database to collect properties located inside and outside the area and were transacted two years before and after the gas explosion. A Difference-inDifferences approach was then applied based on the transaction records. The results indicated that the impact of the negative "hazard effect" on the average total price of property was not significantly higher than the positive "renew effect" in the nine months after the gas explosion. The net effect of the "renew effect" was more likely to increase the price as the gas explosion time passes. Moreover, the quantile analysis suggested that the high-priced properties significantly benefited from the "renew effect" after three months of gas explosion, while the positive effect on properties with low total price was significantly after nine months of the explosion. Overall, the total increase of the house price due to the net "renew effect" in the gas explosion area was higher than the total cost of the reconstruction and renovation contributed by the public and private sectors.
    關聯: 經濟論文
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[地政學系] 期刊論文
    [經濟學系] 期刊論文

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