鑒於國際財務報導準則公報第十七號¬－保險合約即將生效，勢必對保險公司產生重大影響，因此研究實施後保險公司的運作、需要的資源、保險負債之估計成為重大議題，其中新概念合約服務邊際成了保險公司盈餘的一項指標，有必要加深對其之討論。 本研究以生死合險為例，運用時間序列模型來配適死亡率及解約率，並對其做模擬，探討兩項因素如何影響合約服務邊際，結論是死亡率及解約率降低，合約服務邊際上升，且解約率對合約服務邊際之影響較甚。 In view of IFRS 17 is about to enter into force, it will inevitably have a significant impact on insurance companies. Therefore, research on the operation of insurance companies, the resources required, and the estimation of insurance liabilities have become major issues. Among them, new concept contractual service margin has become an indicator of the insurance company's surplus, and it is necessary to deepen its discussion. This study takes endowment insurance as an example, uses a time series model to match the mortality rate and the lapse ratio, and simulates them to explore how two factors affect the contractual service margin. The conclusion is that the mortality rate and the lapse ratio are reduced, and the contractual service margin is reduced. Rise, and the lapse ratio has a greater impact on the contractual service margin.