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| Title: | 政黨衝突對經濟發展的影響
The influence of political conflict on economic development |
| Authors: | 廖健豪
Liao, Chien-Hao |
| Contributors: | 楊子霆
黃柏鈞
Yang, Tzu-Ting
Huang, Po-Chun
廖健豪
Liao, Chien-Hao |
| Keywords: | 政黨衝突
經濟發展
政策不確定性
政黨衝突指數
Political conflict
Economic development
Policy uncertainty
Political conflict index |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-03-02 11:26:23 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 政黨衝突是否影響台灣經濟成長的影響一直是學界和產業界關心的議題，本研究參考Azzimonti（2018）嘗試利用1990年至2018年的台灣新聞資料，來建構政黨衝突指數（Political Conflict Index，以下簡稱PCI指數），並以計量模型探討政黨衝突對於總體經濟和企業投資的影響。研究結果顯示，PCI指數在重大衝突的重大事件（國民大會、政治遊行和政策改革）有明顯的上升趨勢，並且政府是否為分立政府顯著影響PCI指數的變化。而計量結果顯示，PCI指數的上升將會顯著造成FDI 的下降，而當PCI上升1倍時，企業的資本支出率將下降0.05個標準差。
Whether or not political conflicts affect Taiwan’s economic development has been a topic of concern to academics and industry. This study refers to Azzimonti (2018) `s attempt to use Taiwanese news from 1990 to 2018 to construct the Political Conflict Index, and use econometric models to explore the impact of political conflicts on the overall economy and corporate investment. The research results show that the PCI index has a clear upward trend in major events of political conflicts (National Congress, political marches and policy reforms), and whether the government is a divided government has significantly affected PCI index. The measurement results show that the rise of the PCI index will cause a significant decline in FDI, and when the PCI doubles, the company`s capital expenditure rate will fall by 0.05 standard deviation. |
| Reference: | Azzimonti, M. (2018). Partisan conflict and private investment. Journal of Monetary Economics.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics.
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Boudoukh, J., Feldman, R., Kogan, S., & Richardson, M. (2013). Which news moves stock prices? a textual analysis (No. w18725). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Canes-Wrone, B., Clark, T. S., & Park, J. K. (2010). Judicial independence and retention elections. The Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization.
Feng, Y. (2001). Political freedom, political instability, and policy uncertainty: A study of political institutions and private investment in developing countries. International Studies Quarterly.
Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2015). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies.
Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The Journal of Finance.
Segal, G., Shaliastovich, I., & Yaron, A. (2015). Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications. Journal of Financial Economics. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
106258026 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106258026 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000193 |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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