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| Title: | 硬投資人情緒對壽險保單解約行為的影響
The Impacts of Hard Investor Sentiment on Life-Insurance Policy Surrenders |
| Authors: | 黃立新
Huang, Li-Xin |
| Contributors: | 江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu
黃立新
Huang, Li-Xin |
| Keywords: | 投資人情緒
主動及被動解約率
理性保單解約
非理性保單解約
Investor sentiment
Surrender/Lapse rate
Rational policy surrender
Irrational policy surrender |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-07-01 17:45:23 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 藉由最被廣泛使用的 BW 情緒指數 (Baker and Wurger, 2006) 及其校準版本的PLS 情緒指數 (Huang et al., 2015)，本文首次在實證上提供投資人情緒影響壽險解約行為的證據。本文發現，解約行為與 BW 指數負向顯著相關而與 PLS 指數存在正向顯著關係。BW 指數蘊含更多經濟週期相關的資訊而 PLS 指數更體現投資人需求/行為。情緒指數的不同意涵導致其對解約行為截然相反的影響。藉由對總解約率進行主動解約及被動失效的拆分，本文發現高、低階段的投資人情緒指數對主動解約決策的影響一致，而對被動失效解約決策的影響不一致。主動解約受 BW 指數負向顯著影響而不受 PLS 指數影響；被動失效解約率則受 BW指數及其低階段指數負向影響，受 PLS 指數及其高階段指數正向影響。透過投資人情緒指數，本文進一步揭示保戶解約行為之需求。主動解約人群的解約行為不受對股票需求(PLS 指數)的影響，體現主動解約人群基於緊急資金需求與新保單替代的需求而選擇解約。相較於主動解約的動機，被動解約人群在高 PLS 指數階段對股票的需求增加，表明其額外的對投機的需求。
Based on the widely-used Baker and Wurgler (2006, BW hereafter) sentiment index and its aligned version of PLS sentiment index (Huang et al., 2015), this paper provides
the first empirical evidence that investor sentiment affects life-insurance policy surrenders. This research finds that policy surrenders and lapses are negatively related to BW index and have a positive relationship with PLS index. BW index contains more business-cycle-related information content while PLS index reveals more investor
demand or investor behavior. The different central components of sentiment indexes lead to opposite effects on lapsations. By decomposing the total termination rate into
voluntary surrender and non-voluntary lapse rates, this study confirms that sentiment indexes with different stages affect surrenders in the same way while lapses display
conditional patterns in low- and high-sentiment periods. Surrender is negatively affected by the BW index but not the PLS index. Lapse receives the negative effects of low BW index and the positive impacts of high PLS index. Along with sentiment indexes, this paper further disentangles the driven factors of lapsation. A policy holders’ voluntary surrender is motivated by the demand for emergency funds and new attractive policy rather than the investor demand (PLS index). Beyond the surrenders’ motivations, lapses show an increased demand for stock in the high PLS sentiment periods, indicating an additional desire for speculation. |
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| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
金融學系
104352508 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104352508 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100480 |
| Appears in Collections: | [金融學系] 學位論文
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