政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/141254
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 110944/141864 (78%)
造访人次 : 48039971      在线人数 : 1024
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141254


    题名: 新興凱因斯模型下通貨膨脹與產出缺⼝的動態調整：⾃然利率衝擊與擴張性貨幣政策的分析
    Dynamic Adjustment of Inflation and Output Gap in a New Keynesian Model: Analysis of the Natural Rate Shock and Expansionary Monetary Policy
    作者: 陳尚毅
    Chen, Shang-Yi
    贡献者: 賴景昌
    Lai, Ching-Chong
    陳尚毅
    Chen, Shang-Yi
    关键词: ⾦融危機
    新興凱因斯模型
    貨幣政策
    動態調整
    宣⽰效果
    Financial crisis
    New Keynesian model
    Monetary policy
    Transitional adjustment
    Announcement effect
    日期: 2022
    上传时间: 2022-08-01 18:28:50 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本⽂以Werning(2012)與Liu, Huang and Lai(2020)為基礎，建構連續時間之下的前瞻性新興凱因斯模型，其中貨幣當局之貨幣政策係採⾏泰勒法則，並且探討貨幣當局事先宣告與未宣告之擴張性貨幣政策(調⾼⽬標通貨膨脹率)，對於經濟體系的產出缺⼝與通貨膨脹率之影響。以及透過負的⾃然實質利率衝擊來詮釋⾦融⾵暴發⽣之時，完全預知的消費者與廠商如何出決策，進⽽影響產出⽔準與通貨膨脹率。本⽂分析得出了兩個結論：
    ⼀.當⾯臨負的⾃然實質利率衝擊時，將會帶來經濟的衰退並出現通貨緊縮。
    ⼆.貨幣當局宣告將會調升⽬標通貨膨脹率之際，不論政策的類型為何(暫時性或恆久性貨幣政策)，產出缺⼝與通貨膨脹率會在政策宣告但還未實施之時就先⾏上漲。
    This thesis sets up a forward-looking New Keynesian model in continuous time based on Werning (2012) and Liu, Huang and Lai (2020), in which the monetary authority implements a Taylor’s rule. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated expansionary monetary policies (raising the target inflation rate) govern the transitional dynamics of the output gap and inflation rate. In addition, this thesis explains how the perfect foresight households and firms make optimal decisions during a financial crisis via negative temporary natural real interest rate shocks.
    Two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, when economy faced with negative temporary natural real interest rate shocks, the economy will sink into a recession with deflation. Second, the output gap and inflation rate will rise immediately before the policy is announced but not yet implemented, regardless of the type of the monetary expansion policy.
    參考文獻: 一. 中文部分
    許溪南、王家美(2010),「2008 全球金融海嘯之起因、影響與教訓」,《證券櫃檯月刊》,第一四九期:頁 87-98。
    蔡耀如(2010),「金融危機對金融體系與總體經濟之影響」,《全球金融危機專輯(增訂版)》:頁 25-46,台北:中央銀行。
    賴景昌(1994),《國際金融理論-進階篇》,第四章,台北:茂昌。
    賴景昌(2018),《總體經濟學》,第四版,第十四章,台北:雙葉。
    賴景昌(2020),「理性預期」、「宣示效果」、「國際金融」,研究所上課講義。
    二. 西文部分
    Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. and Evans, C. L. (2005), “Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy,” Journal of Political Economy, 113, 1-45.
    Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. and Rebelo, S. (2011), “When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?” Journal of Political Economy, 119, 78-121.
    Eggertsson, G. B. (2011), “What Fiscal Policy is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 25, 59-112.
    Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Rubio -Ramírez, J. F. and Uribe, M. (2011), “Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks,” American Economic Review, 101, 2530-2561.
    Galí, J. (2015), Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle, 2nd Edition. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.
    Holston, K., Laubach, T. and Williams, J. C. (2017), “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants,” Journal of International Economics, 108, 59-75.
    Liu, S. F., Huang, W. C. and Lai, C. C. (2020), “Could Fiscal Policies Overcome a Deep Recession at the Zero Lower Bound?” MPRA Paper No. 101282.
    Rotemberg, J. J. (1982), “Sticky Prices in the United States,” Journal of Political Economy, 90, 1187-1211.
    Rotemberg, J. and Woodford, M. (1999), “Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model,” NBER Papers No. 6618.
    Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M. (2004), “Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-order Approximation to the Policy Function,” Journal of
    Economic Dynamics & Control, 28, 755-775.
    Walsh, C. E. (2010), “Teaching Inflation Targeting: An Analysis for Intermediate Macro,” Journal of Economic Education, 33, 333-346.
    Walsh, C. E. (2017), Monetary Theory and Policy, 4th Edition. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
    Werning, I. (2012), “Managing a Liquidity Trap: Monetary and Fiscal Policy,” NBER Papers No. 17344.
    Wieland, J. F. (2019), “Are Negative Supply Shocks Expansionary at the Zero Lower Bound?” Journal of Political Economy, 3, 973-1007.
    Woodford, M. (2003), Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.
    三. 網站部分
    Moll, B. (2012), Lecture 2: New Keynesian Model in Continuous Time. Princeton University.
    檢自 https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Lecture2_ECO521_web.pdf (最後瀏覽日期:2022/06/30)
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    109258035
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258035
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202200805
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    803501.pdf1730KbAdobe PDF2170检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈