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| Title: | 美中貿易戰對臺灣製造業出口之影響
The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Exports of the Manufacturing Industry of Taiwan |
| Authors: | 尹德中
Yin, Der-Jong |
| Contributors: | 吳文傑
彭喜樞
Wu, Wen-Chieh
Peng, Shi-Shu
尹德中
Yin, Der-Jong |
| Keywords: | 美中貿易戰
臺灣製造業
資訊電子業
金屬石化業
傳統製造業
海關進口稅則
U.S.-China trade war
Manufacturing industry of Taiwan
Electronics industry
Metalworking & petrochemistry
Traditional manufacturing industry
Customs import tariff |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-12-02 15:26:56 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在美中相互競爭及保護主義興起下，美國為減少對中國大陸日趨嚴重的貿易逆差、防止智慧財產權遭受侵害，2018年第2季起數度對中國大陸進口產品加徵關稅，中國大陸亦採取相應的報復性關稅回擊，美中經貿關係由摩擦、衝突逐漸激化成貿易戰爭。為探討身處美中產品供應鏈不可或缺一環的臺灣製造業是否受到波及，本研究在假設「臺灣接單、大陸製造、銷售美國」的架構下，挑選2020年第4季臺灣出口至全球貿易額前20名具代表性製造業的橫斷面資料，歸類為資訊電子業、金屬石化業、傳統製造業3類，結合從2015年第1季至2020年第4季的時間序列資料而形成的追蹤資料（Panel Data），分析美中貿易戰前、後臺灣出口至美國貿易額（即被解釋變數）究係上升或下降？並控制一些重要變數，如臺灣出口至中國大陸貿易額、產業分類虛擬變數等，以Limdep軟體中普通最小平方法進行分析。
迴歸結果得出貿易戰發生之後（相對發生之前）：臺灣製造業出口至美國貿易額上升且具顯著性，代表臺灣製造業從中受益；以傳統製造業為比較基準，進一步分析3類，可發現資訊電子業受益程度大於傳統製造業，而金屬石化業受益程度小於傳統製造業且均具顯著性。值得一提的是，臺灣出口至中國大陸貿易額上升會使臺灣出口至美國貿易額下降且具顯著性，意味著臺灣製造業出口中國大陸、臺灣製造業出口美國二者間，由原先的互補關係也演變成替代關係。
With the rise of protectionism and competition between the U.S. and China, the U.S. has levied higher tariffs on imports from China several times since the second quarter of 2018 in order to cut down the trade deficit towards China, prevent the intellectual property rights from being stolen. China has levied retaliatory tariffs accordingly in response. The stages of U.S.-China economic and trade relations went through friction, confrontation, even escalated to trade war. The research aims to study whether the manufacturing industry of Taiwan, which plays a critical role in U.S.-China product supply chains, gets hurt. We assume “Order in Taiwan, manufacture in China, sale to the U.S.”, select the twenty products, which have top-20 values of Taiwan export to the world in the fourth quarter of 2020, as cross-sectional data, and can be classified into 3 categories (electronics industry, metalworking and petrochemistry, traditional manufacturing industry). Combined time-series data covering 24 quarters from 2015 to 2020 to form a panel data, we analyze whether the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. (i.e. dependent variable) increases after the trade war. We control a few important variables, such as the values of Taiwan manufacturing industry export to China, the product dummy variables, etc. The model we used is OLS linear regression.
The results are as follows: After the trade war, the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. increase significantly, which indicates the manufacturing industry of Taiwan benefits from it. Use traditional manufacturing industry as a base to analyze 3 categories, we find that electronics industry has benefited more than traditional manufacturing industry, and metalworking & petrochemistry has benefited less than traditional manufacturing industry. Both arguments are statistically significant. Noticeably, the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to China increasing will make the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. decreasing significantly, which indicates the relations between manufacturing industry of Taiwan “export to China” and “export to the U.S.” were initially complements and are now substitutes. |
| Reference: | 一、中文部分
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三、相關網站
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
106255018 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255018 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201697 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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