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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/143349
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/143349


    Title: 以標準化死亡率估計平均餘命
    Using Standardized Mortality to Estimate Life Expectancy
    Authors: 呂靖翎
    Lu, Jing-Ling
    Contributors: 余清祥
    Yue, Ching-Syang
    呂靖翎
    Lu, Jing-Ling
    Keywords: 平均餘命
    小區域估計
    標準化死亡率
    地區差異
    線性模式
    Date: 2023
    Issue Date: 2023-02-08 16:16:29 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 平均餘命是衡量國家發展的重要指標,反映各地區的經濟發展、公共衛生、醫療水準,也可用於商業保險,作為商品費率的參考依據。平均餘命通常透過編製生命表,包括資料插補、死亡率修勻等步驟,其結果可用於探索時間變化與地區差異。因為平均餘命會因為人數少而產生震盪,加上資料蒐集及選擇適合小地區編算方法的考量,我國現在僅公布國家層級、人口較多行政地區(如縣市)的官方生命表。隨著地區差異與氣候變遷等因素,民眾可透過重要的地方資訊選擇居住地,政府也可藉由小區域平均餘命評估各地居民健康,檢視現有政策、調整資源分配、規劃地區發展等的參考。
    本文以估計小區域之平均餘命為目標,透過各地標準死亡率等指標,在不考量編算生命表的前提下,建立估計平均餘命的可行方法。標準化死亡率(Standardized Death Rate)和標準化死亡比(Standardized Mortality Ratio)常用於比較兩地同時或同地異時的死亡率,可減少年齡結構造成的干擾,我們以這兩個指標為基礎,透過線性模型估計小區域平均餘命。實證資料包括臺灣全國、縣市層級簡易生命表(民國89~109年)、人口死亡資料庫(Human Mortality Database),以交叉驗證評估線性模型的優劣。研究發現本文方法可有效估計平均餘命,在人數較少區域的偏誤與變異比使用生命表更小,但模型的參數值會隨著兩個指標而變,使用時需格外謹慎。
    Reference: (一)中文部分
    1. 王信忠、余清祥、王子瑜(2017)。「臺灣原住民死亡率暨生命表編撰研究」。《人口學刊》,55,99-131。
    2. 王信忠、金碩、余清祥(2012)。「小區域死亡率推估之研究」。《人口學刊》,45,121-154。
    3. 余清祥、王信忠、陳譽騰(2021)。「年輪變動比用於小區域人口推估的探討」。《人口學刊》,63,99-133。
    4. 吳宛蕙、楊長興(2007)。「全民健保對健康差距之影響-以平均餘命為測量」 《台灣公共衛生雜誌》,26,196-207。
    5. 陳政勳、余清祥(2010)。「小區域人口推估研究:臺北市、雲嘉兩縣、澎湖縣的實證分析」。《人口學刊》,41,153-183。
    6. 溫啓邦、蔡善璞、鍾文慎(2005)。「高雄市和臺北市居民平均餘命差距之分析」。《台灣公共衛生雜誌》,24,125-135.
    7. 劉士嘉、林正祥(2017)。「人類壽命上限值探討—以臺灣為例」。《人口學刊》,55,133-163。


    (二)英文部分
    1. Ahmad, O. B., Boschi-Pinto, C., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J., Lozano, R., and Inoue, M. (2001). Age Standardization of Rates: A New WHO Standard. Geneva: World Health Organization, 9(10), 1-14.
    2. Arias, E., Escobedo, L. A., Kennedy, J., Fu, C., and Cisewki, J. (2018). U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project: Methodology and Results Summary. Vital and Health Statistics, 181, 1-40.
    3. Hamilton, C. H. and J. Perry (1962). A Short Method for Projecting Population by Age from One Decennial Census to Another. Social Forces, 41(2), 163-170.
    4. Lai, D., Guo, F., and Hardy, R. J. (2000). Standardized Mortality Ratio and Life Expectancy: A Comparative Study of Chinese Mortality. International journal of epidemiology, 29(5), 852-855.
    5. Lai, D., Hardy, R. J., and Tsai, S. P. (1996). Statistical Analysis of the Standardized Mortality Ratio and Life Expectancy. American Journal of Epidemiology, 143(8), 832-840.
    6. Lawson, C. L., and Hanson, R. J. (1974). Solving Least Squares Problems. New York, NY: Prentice-Hall.
    7. Lee, R. D. and Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and Forecasting US Mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659-671.
    8. Lee, W. C. (2003). A Partial SMR Approach to Smoothing Age-specific Rates, Annals of Epidemiology, 13(2), 89-99.
    9. Lewis, E.B. (1982). Control of Body Segment Differentiation in Drosophila by the Bithorax Gene Complex. Embryonic Development, 1, 269-288.
    10. Li, N. and Lee, R. (2005). Coherent Mortality Forecasts for a Group of Populations – An Extension of the Lee-Carter Method. Demography. 42(3), 575-594.
    11. Liou, L., Joe, W., Kumar, A., and Subramanian, S. V. (2020). Inequalities in Life Expectancy: An Analysis of 201 Countries, 1950–2015. Social Science and Medicine, 253, 112964.
    12. Raftery, A. E., Chunn, J. L., Gerland, P., and Ševčíková, H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography, 50(3), 777-801.
    13. Skriver, M. V., Væth, M., and Støvring, H. (2018). Loss of Life Expectancy Derived from A Standardized Mortality Ratio in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 46(7), 767-773.
    14. Sormin, M. K. Z., Sihombing, P., Amalia, A., Wanto, A., Hartama, D., and Chan, D. M. (2019). Predictions of World Population Life Expectancy Using Cyclical Order Weight/Bias. Journal of Physics: Conference Series ,1255.
    15. Stephens, A. S., Purdie, S., Yang, B., and Moore, H. (2013). Life Expectancy Estimation in Small Administrative Areas with Non-uniform Population Sizes: Application to Australian New South Wales Local Government Areas. BMJ open, 3(12).
    16. Wang, H.-C., Yue, C.-S. J., and Chong, C.-T. (2018). Mortality Models and Longevity Risk for Small Populations. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 78, 351-359.
    17. Whittaker, E. T. (1922). On a New Method of Graduation. Proceedings of the Edinburgh Mathematical Society, 41, 63-75.
    18. Wilmoth, J. R., Andreev, K., Jdanov, D., Glei, D. A., Boe, C., Bubenheim, M., Philipov,D., Shkolnikov.,and Vachon, P. (2007). Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley, and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, 9, 10-11.
    19. Yue, J. C., Wang, H.-C. and Wang, T.-Y. (2019). Using Graduation to Modify the Estimation of Lee-Carter Model for Small Populations. North American Actuarial Journal, 1-11.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    110354008
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110354008
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 學位論文

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