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    政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of Finance > Theses >  Item 140.119/146281
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146281

    Title: 疫情恐慌下的房市:恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒之分析
    The Real Estate Market Under the Panic of the COVID-19 Pandemics: Analysis of Panic Buying and Perceived Scarcity
    Authors: 劉祉岑
    Liu, Chih-Tsen
    Contributors: 陳明吉
    Chen, Ming-Chi
    Liu, Chih-Tsen
    Keywords: COVID-19
    Panic Buying
    Perceived Scarcity
    Real Estate Market
    Date: 2023
    Issue Date: 2023-08-02 12:58:16 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究以Google Trends方法量化疫情期間台灣的恐慌情緒程度,並將恐慌情緒進一步細分為形成恐慌情緒與影響消費者市場的主要兩個情緒:恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒。探討所開發一般消費者與房市消費者之恐慌、恐慌購買與感知稀缺情緒變數與台灣房價指數、住宅交易量、房屋銷售天數與房價議價空間的動態影響關係。研究期間為2019年1月至2023年2月,探討COVID-19疫情期間相關情緒變數對於房市之影響,並進一部觀察情緒變數對於房市是否具有非線性的門檻效果以及雙向反饋的因果關係。


    This study uses Google Trends to quantify the degree of panic sentiment in Taiwan during the pandemic. And further splits panic sentiment into two main sentiments that shape panic sentiment and affect the consumer market: panic buying sentiment and perceived scarcity sentiment. To investigate the dynamic relationships between the panic, panic buying, and perceived scarcity sentiment variables developed for general consumers and housing market consumers and the housing prices, transaction volume, flow days, and bargaining space in Taiwan. The study period is from January 2019 to February 2023 to investigate the impact of sentiment variables on the housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic and to further observe whether the sentiment variables have non-linear threshold effects on the housing market and the causal relationship of bidirectional feedbacks.

    This study demonstrates that the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive effect on the growth rate of housing price during lagged one period. For the flow days, the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment had a negative effect during lagged two period. As for the growth rate of transaction volume, the change in panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period and lagged one period, while it has a positive effect during lagged two period. In terms of bargaining space, the change in panic sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in panic buying sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in housing market panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during lagged one period, and the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period.

    In addition, the results of the study show that there is a non-linear threshold effect between the amount of change in panic buying sentiment and the growth rate of flow days, and between the amount of change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment and the growth rate of transaction volume. Finally, the results show that there is no bivariate causality between sentiment variables and housing market information. However, in addition to the effect of the change in sentiment on the growth rate of housing market information, the change in housing market information also affects panic sentiment and triggers the change in panic sentiment.
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    Description: 碩士
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357014
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Finance] Theses

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