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| Title: | 中央銀行於特定地區實施LTV上限政策對房市價格之影響
The Impact of Selective Credit Controls on House Price Implemented by the Central Bank of Taiwan on the Specific Policy Area |
| Authors: | 朱冠穎
Chu, Kuan-Ying |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
朱冠穎
Chu, Kuan-Ying |
| Keywords: | 針對性總體審慎政策
選擇性信用管制
貸款成數
斷點迴歸設計
外溢效果
Targeted Macroprudential Policy
Selective Credit Controls
Loan-to-Value
Regression Discontinuity Design
Spillover effect |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 12:59:08 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究旨在探討央行對特定地區所實施的選擇性信用管制政策（即貸款成數上限緊縮政策）是否為有效的管制政策，本研究所包含之樣本地區遍及全台，並依據政策形式將樣本地區劃分成政策實施區以及非政策實施區。研究期間為2010年1月至2016年12月，一共84期。
從房市管制政策是否有效而言，針對政策實施區之分析結果顯示，央行對特定地區之管制會對房市價格產生壓制作用。延伸探討政策發布對非政策實施區房價的外溢效果則發現，政策的發布的確會使房價產生外溢效果，然而影響之方向則不一定。此次央行於2010年至2014年間的打炒房政策，有擴大管制區域之舉，故本研究亦延伸探討央行擴大政策實施範圍的背後動機為未雨綢繆或是亡羊補牢。結果顯示，即將被擴大納入的政策實施區，皆在前一期政策發布後產生房價上漲的外溢情形，因此判定央行擴大政策實施區之舉為亡羊補牢。
綜合上述實證分析，央行於2010年至2014年針對特定地區之房市所進行的貸款成數上限緊縮政策，對政策實施區之房價皆呈現顯著的向下斷點，意即打炒房政策存在一定程度的房價壓制效果。同時也發現，只針對特定地區進行房價管制，會對鄰近地區甚至是非政策實施區產生房價外溢之現象，在方向性上則不一定。
The aim of this study is to investigate whether the selective credit controls on house price implemented by the central bank of Taiwan in specific regions are effective. The sample areas included in this study span across Taiwan and are divided into policy areas, non-policy areas, and quasi-policy areas based on the form of policies. The study period is from January 2010 to December 2016.
In terms of the effectiveness of housing market control policies, results of the policy areas show that there are suppressing effect on house prices. When examining the spillover effects of house prices in non-policy areas, the results indicate the presence of spillover effect. This study also extends to explore the motives behind the expansion of the implementation area, whether it is a proactive measure or a remedial action. Since the house prices in the areas rose before being included in the implementation zone, it can be concluded that the expansion of the implementation area in both cases was a remedial action.
Based on the empirical analysis above, the tightening of loan-to-value （LTV） limits implemented from 2010 to 2014 showed a statistically significant downward break on house prices in the policy areas. At the same time, it was also observed that when only specific areas were subjected to housing price controls, the spillover effects of house prices existed, although the direction of the effects was not necessarily the same. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
110357021 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357021 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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