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| Title: | 全球新冠疫情與臺灣對外貿易流量：貿易引力模型之應用分析
Global COVID-19 Pandemic and Taiwan`s Foreign Trade Flows: An Applied Analysis of the Gravity Model of Trade |
| Authors: | 鄭維安
Cheng, Wei-An |
| Contributors: | 徐則謙
Hsu, Tse-Chien
鄭維安
Cheng, Wei-An |
| Keywords: | 貿易引力模型
新冠疫情
民主自由度
自由貿易協定
經濟合作協議
Gravity Model of Trade
COVID-19
Freedom scores
Free Trade Agreement
Economic Cooperation Agreement |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 13:09:56 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文針對臺灣的進出口總值資料進行貿易引力模型的實證研究，主要探討2020年與2021年全球新冠疫情嚴重肆虐期間，各國COVID-19確診人數、各國民主自由程度高低以及對臺經貿協議簽定與否如何影響臺灣的對外貿易表現。文中擴展傳統的貿易引力模型，除了使用臺灣主要貿易夥伴國的GDP、與臺灣之間的地理距離、語言共通與否、宗教相近性指數等數據之外，也加入各國確診人數、自由度分數以及是否與臺灣之間簽訂自由貿易協定（FTA）或經濟合作協議（ECA）等變數資料，以分析其各自對於臺灣進出口總值的影響。研究結果表明，臺灣貿易對象的確診人數與地理距離對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著負相關；臺灣貿易對象的經濟規模、宗教近似程度以及對臺經貿協議的簽訂則對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著正相關；而與貿易對手國之間的語言共通與否以及該國的民主自由程度高低則對於臺灣的進出口總值不具顯著相關性。
The purpose of this thesis was to conduct an empirical study on Taiwan`s import and export value data using the extended Gravity Model of Trade. The study primarily investigated how the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Taiwan`s major trading countries, the level of democracy and freedom of each country, and whether they have signed a free trade agreement or economic cooperation agreement with Taiwan or not, affect Taiwan`s foreign trade performance during the severe global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The results revealed that the number of confirmed cases and geographical distance of Taiwan`s trading partners have a significant negative correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. Furthermore, the economic scale, religious proximity, and signing of a trade agreement with Taiwan by its trading partners have a significant positive correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. However, the language commonality and level of democracy and freedom of the trading partner countries do not have a significant correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. |
| Reference: | 連柏凱（2016）。臺灣服務貿易競爭力之研究-引力模型之應用。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/s9w3mr
陳瀅如（2013）。兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)對台灣機械業之貿易效果-引力模型的驗證。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/hy5t3y
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蔡鳳娟（2010）。台灣地區對外貿易流量模型之發展：以引力模型為基礎。國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣桃園。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/xd7368
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
110351009 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110351009 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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| 100901.pdf | | 1740Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 387 | View/Open |
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