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    Title: 選舉安全與立法背離
    Electoral Safety and Legislative Defection
    Authors: 徐嘉謙
    HSU, CHIA-CHIEN
    Contributors: 楊婉瑩
    Yang, Wan-Ying
    徐嘉謙
    HSU, CHIA-CHIEN
    Keywords: 選舉安全
    立法背離
    個人實力
    政黨實力
    立法行為
    Electoral Safety
    Legislative Defection
    Personal Strength
    Party Strength
    Legislative Behavior
    Date: 2023
    Issue Date: 2023-09-01 15:36:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   本文探討選舉安全對立法委員於記名表決時之投票背離行為有何影響?並對於過去研究中所闕漏處進行增補,藉由近期研究中的觀點,認為立法者的行為差異不僅存在於制度間,於相同制度之下亦可能有多樣的型態。故本文旨在探究國內於新選制(SMD)下的選舉因素對區域立法委員的「跑票」行為有何影響?在本文中將「選舉安全」拆分為二:一是候選人的「個人實力」;二則是政黨於選區中長期的「政黨實力」,並預計二者對於立法委員的背離行為有不同影響。

      本文採用東吳大學政治學系國會研究中心(CLS)提供之「國會資料庫」中關於第八屆立法院的記名表決資料,與楊婉瑩教授主持之科技部計畫研究案之「政黨提名資料庫」。藉由「二元勝算對數模型」(binary logit model)進行檢證,探討選舉因素如何影響立法委員在記名表決時之背離行為。實證結果顯示本文將選舉安全的拆分對於立法背離確有不同影響:首先,在「個人實力」上,相較無個人實力的立法委員,有個人實力者於記名表決之時,背離政黨的機率會降低;反之,在「政黨實力」上,政黨實力則對於立法背離未有顯著影響。

      此外,本文認為「個人實力」與「政黨實力」可能相互產生矛盾,二者關係並非為一成不變的相同方向,而是有競合關係,故透過在模型之中加入交互項以檢驗之。後續結果顯示「個人實力」與「政黨實力」確不相互獨立。為釐清不同選舉實力組合下對於投票背離的效應,本文提出四種不同的實力組合,並以預測機率將背離機率排序,發現耐人尋味的結果:反而不是同時擁有個人優勢與政黨優勢者最不會背離政黨,而是僅有個人優勢但政黨弱勢者最不會背離政黨。此一結果代表「個人實力」確有決定性的地位,亦即,在同為政黨弱勢的條件之下,相較於個人弱勢者,個人優勢者較不會背離其所屬政黨。
      This study examined the effect of electoral safety on the voting defection behavior of legislators during roll-call votes. In addition, it addressed gaps in prior research and supplemented them by incorporating new research findings. This modern perspective argues that differences in legislator behavior extend beyond the realm of distinct institutional frameworks and may manifest themselves in different patterns even within the same institutional context. In light of Taiwan`s new Single-Member District (SMD) electoral system, the objective of this study was to determine the impact of electoral factors on the "vote against the party line" conduct of regional legislators. This analysis disaggregated "electoral safety" into two distinct components: first, the "personal strength" of individual candidates, and second, the enduring "party strength" exerted by political parties within their respective districts. It was hypothesized that these two factors have distinct effects on the propensity of legislative members to commit defections.

      This study utilized roll-call voting data from the eighth Legislative Yuan, sourced from the "Congressional Database" provided by the Center for Legislative Study (CLS) within the Department of Political Science at Soochow University, and data from the "Party Nomination Database," derived from a research project supervised by Professor Yang Wan-Ying and funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). Using a "binary logit model," the investigation examined how electoral factors affect legislators` defection behaviors during roll-call voting. As outlined in this study, empirical findings have revealed nuanced effects resulting from the subdivision of electoral safety. In terms of "personal strength," legislators endowed with personal strength are less likely to deviate from their party`s position during roll-call voting than their counterparts who lack personal strength. In contrast, there is no statistically significant relationship between "party strength" and legislative defection, indicating that party strength has a negligible effect on such behavior.

      In addition, this study hypothesized that a potential conflict could develop between "personal strength" and "party strength." These two factors would not have a static, unidirectional relationship; rather, they would engage in a dynamic, competitive interplay. To investigate this, the model should include an interaction term for empirical examination. The results have revealed a significant relationship between "personal strength" and "party strength. "This study has introduced four distinct configurations of electoral strength in order to elucidate the effects of various electoral strength combinations on voter defection. Using predictive probabilities to rank defection likelihood, intriguing findings emerge: Contrary to popular belief, those who possess both personal and party advantages are not the least likely to deviate from their party`s position. Rather, individuals who possess only personal advantages but face party disadvantages are the least likely to defect. This result emphasizes the importance of "personal strength." In particular, in the context of comparable party vulnerabilities, individuals with greater personal strengths are less likely to deviate from their party`s position than those with fewer personal strengths.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    政治學系
    107252007
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107252007
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[政治學系] 學位論文

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