Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147211
|
| Title: | 長壽風險對退休財務規劃與投資策略之影響分析
Longevity Risks on Retirement Financial Planning and Investment Strategies Impact Analysis |
| Authors: | 姜孟廷
Chiang, Meng-Ting |
| Contributors: | 王儷玲
姜孟廷
Chiang, Meng-Ting |
| Keywords: | 長壽風險
長期照護費用
退休財務規劃
退休投資策略
Longevity risk
Long-term care expenses
Financial planning in retirement
Investment strategy in retirement |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-09-01 16:07:35 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 醫療技術進步的環境下，人們平均壽命逐年遞增，可能會因活太長導致退
休金不足的風險，甚至開始有延年退休的現象以多累積退休金，因此需要在退休前甚至更加提前進行財務與投資規劃以面對長壽風險。
本研究發現，退休理財規劃會因為在2000年到2019年這20年間，平均餘
命的增加在很多面向受到顯著的影響，即便將平均餘命之外的其他變數設為固定變數，例如將利率設為固定值，因平均餘命的拉長，難以避免在2019年會較在2000年時所承擔的長照相關費用較重，在準備退休金規劃的資金需要更多成本，得以應付因活太長造成資金不足的情況。
實證結果也觀察到，從年輕的時候開始做退休理財規劃，並採取積極的投
資策略，每月需要負擔的機會成本相對要輕許多；反之，到年紀較長時才開始做退休理財規劃，且年紀愈大愈容易採相對保守的投資策略，若要達到相同條件的退休金理財目標，則需要相對付出更多的機會成本。而年輕族群若採取相對較保守的投資策略，相較於年輕族群採積極的投資策略，在退休理財規劃的機會成本差距會擴大，所需付出的機會成本會增加。因此，能證實及早做退休理財規劃與採取較積極投資策略的重要性。
Under the environment of medical technology advancement. The average life expectancy of people is increasing year by year, which may lead to the risk of insufficient pension due to having a too long life, even start to delay retirement to
accumulate more pension. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out financial and investment planning before retirement to face the longevity risk.
This study found that retirement financial planning will be significantly affected in many aspects due to the increasing in the average life expectancy during the 20 years from 2000 to 2019, even if other variables except the average life expectancy are set as fixed variables, such as interest rates are set to fixed value. Because of the extension of the average life expectancy, it is inevitable that the people in 2019 will take long-term care expenses more heavily than the people in 2000. Moreover, the funds for the preparation of retirement plan will require more costs to cope with the long-term life insufficient funding situation.
The empirical results also observed that Starting retirement financial planning at a young age and adopting an active investment strategy, the monthly opportunity cost is relatively light; on the contrary, starting retirement financial planning at the older age, that the older people are tend to adopt with a relatively conservative investment
strategy. If the older people want to achieve the same retirement fund management goals, they will need to pay more opportunity costs. On the other hand, if the young people adopt a relatively conservative investment strategy, ompared with the young people who adopt an active investment strategy, the opportunity cost gap in retirement financial planning will widen, and the opportunity cost will also increase. Therefore, it can prove the importance of early financial planning in retirement and adopting a more active investment strategy. |
| Reference: | 1. Hong-Chih Huang, Andrew J.G. Cairns. (2006). On the control of definedbenefit
pension plans. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 38, 113-131
2. Mitchell, D.,Brockett, P.,Mendoza-Arriaga, R.,Muthuraman, K.(2013).Modeling
and Forecasting Mortality Rates.Insurance: Mathematics and
Economics,52(2),275-285.
3. Natacha Brouhns, Michel Denuit, Jeroen K. Vermunt. (2002). A Poisson logbilinear
regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables.
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 31, 373–393
4. O’Hare, C.,Li, Y.(2012).Explaining Young Mortality. Insurance: Mathematics
and Economics,50(1),12-25.
5. Plat, R.(2009).On Stochastic Mortality Modeling. Insurance: Mathematics and
Economics,45(3),393-404.
6. Renshaw, A. E.,Haberman, S.(2006).A Cohort-Based Extension to the Lee–
Carter Model for Mortality Reduction Factors. Insurance: Mathematics and
Economics,38(3),556-570.
7. Ronald D. Lee and Lawrence R. Carter. (1992). Modeling and Forecasting U.S.
Mortality. Taylor & Francis, Ltd. on behalf of American Statistical Association
8. Sandra Blome, Kai Fachinger, Dorothee Franzen, Gerhard Scheuenstuhl, Juan
Yermo. (2007). Pension Fund Regulation and Risk Management: Results from
an ALM Optimisation Exercise
47
9. Tanja MarkovičHribernik, Igor Jakopanec. (2012). Pension Funds, the
Requirement of Providing the Minimum Guaranteed Return and Excessive
Legislative Restrictions of Pension Fund Investments. South East European
Journal of Economics and Business. Page range: 7 -22
1. 王信忠, Hsin-Chung,金碩, Shuoh,余清祥, Jack C.(2012)。小區域死亡率推估
之研究。人口學刊，45，77-110
2. 王信忠, Hsin-Chung,余清祥, Jack C.,陳怡萱, Yi-Xuan(2016)。高齡死亡率模
型的探討。人口學刊，52，1-42。
3. 王儷玲、黃泓智、楊曉文、陳彥志、鄭惠恒，2017，年金改革與建立臺灣
永續年金制度，臺灣經濟預測與政策中央研究院經濟研究所48:1 (2017), 1-
39
4. 王儷玲、黃泓智、楊曉文、彭金隆，2022，全方位退休理財與保險規劃
（2022年版），退休理財規劃顧問RFA（Retirement Financial Advisor）
5. 李永琮, 劉議謙, 宮可倫(2019)。死亡率模型之比較：以臺灣資料為例。人
口學刊，58，1-37
6. 余清祥(2002)。死亡率的降低對於退休金純保費的影響:台灣地區的實証研
究。壽險季刊，125，9-20
7. 余清祥, 王信忠, 陳譽騰(2021)。年輪變動比用於小區域人口推估的探討。
人口學刊，63， 99-133
8. 國家發展委員會，2022，中華民國人口推估（2022 年至 2070 年）
48
9. 黃泓智,李永琮(2015)。Lee-Carter模型下死亡率預測之改善與其在確定提撥
制退休金的應用。管理評論，34卷4期
10. 張士傑(2000)。退休基金評價的最適提撥策略與資產負債管理。行政院國
家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告，NSC 89-2416-H-004-058
11. 勞動部勞工保險局、擎天駒管理顧問有限公司，2021，110年度「勞工保
險普通事故保險費率精算及財務評估」報告 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
110358029 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110358029 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| index.html | 0Kb | HTML2 | 62 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
