Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147242
|
| Title: | 台灣的1.5軌軍事製備： 軍民HA/DR整合對臺灣綜合國家韌性架構的重要性
Taiwan’s Track 1.5 Military Preparedness: How Integrating Civil-Military HA/DR is Essential to Taiwan’s Comprehensive Resilience Framework |
| Authors: | 舒耀宗
Spencer, Thomas |
| Contributors: | 盧業中
Lu, Yeh-Chung
舒耀宗
Spencer, Thomas |
| Keywords: | 1.5軌軍事
軍民
國家韌性架構
台灣
軍民HA/DR
韌性架構
Humanitarian Aid
Disaster Relief
Civil-Military
Special Operations
National Guard
Resilience |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-09-01 16:14:36 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 中華民國（ROC），今天更廣為人知的名字是臺灣，主要通過1.5軌道或“反向管道”外交運作。 以非官方身份參與的政府官員和非政府專家的混合，使臺灣能夠成功地參與國際社會，否則官方同行無法參與。
這項工作將同樣的“反向管道”原則歸因於臺灣軍隊，作為一種行之有效的方法，在通過人道主義援助和救災（HA / DR）建立國際結締組織的同時，將國內的公民復原力結合起來。以烏克蘭文軍抵抗努力的成功為模型，並適應台灣的獨特情況，在文官組織和軍事能力之間進行協調的統一抵抗對國防至關重要。在開始整合民防組織的後期，烏克蘭未能阻止民族統一主義的俄羅斯。如果台灣要避免與中國重蹈覆轍，就必須建立一個全面的復原力框架，並建立一個軍民聯合組織。
利用其目前的自然災害 HA / DR 能力，臺灣可以建立一個國民警衛隊，統一民防工作，以應對目前分散在政府，軍隊和私人組織之間的類似人為災難。通信、危機管理、角色和責任、共同行動圖景和部隊結構可以通過這個新的國民警衛隊進行協調。他們將在內政部（MOI）下運作，在和平時期作為一個兼職的民間組織，執法權力集中在HA / DR，以及一個國有化的軍事組織，專注於戰時的民防和抵抗。作為一個平民志願組織，台灣國民警衛隊可以參加目前台灣軍隊無法參加的外國訓練、交流和實際行動。
烏克蘭特種作戰部隊（SOF）在軍民復原力方面同樣發揮著重要作用。烏克蘭特種作戰部隊比常規部隊訓練有素，裝備精良，幫助訓練、裝備和陪同國民警衛隊和民防團體開展支援常規部隊的行動。今天的臺灣特種作戰部隊缺乏非常規戰爭、反叛亂和特種偵察的關鍵技能。它們在陸軍、海軍和空軍之間分開，並在每個軍種的層次結構中解散。通過將特種作戰部隊整合為新的聯合指揮總部，並更新其核心任務和能力以應對中國的混合威脅，臺灣特種作戰部隊可以成為臺灣國民警衛隊軍民部分培訓、整合和專業化不可或缺的一部分。
臺灣的1.5軌道軍事模式填補了國防部（MND）今年3月制定的《全面防禦的部隊結構調整》中概述的駐軍防禦力量和民防系統的作用，但從未澄清。它在戰爭時期提供與國防部的軍事聯繫，同時在和平時期的HA / DR任務中建立社會信任和價值。
目前美國和臺灣的威懾努力主要集中在改善徵兵和預備役訓練，同時增加常規武器銷售。本文將展示這種努力的短視性，因為它忽視了最大和最有能力的人口，即36至55歲的臺灣人。他們社會富裕，但超過被徵召預備役的年齡，約佔人口的1/3，佔可自由支配的財富和權力的大多數。中年臺灣人被軍方忽視，如果訓練和組織得當，對整體防禦概念構成了重要的價值主張。多個私人組織已經建立了培訓來填補這一空白，因為中年臺灣人有辦法和願望自掏腰包用於準備工作。
將私人、內務部和運動神經元病志願者組織結合成一項全面的復原力工作，使台灣能夠利用其最寶貴和未開發的自然資源——中年人口。臺灣重新設計的特種作戰部隊和新的國民警衛隊是這一全面復原力框架的基石，當它們結合在一起時，可以作為對中國的綜合威懾。
The Republic of China (ROC), better known today as Taiwan, operates primarily through track 1.5 or “back channel” diplomacy. A mixture of government officials participating in an unofficial capacity and non-governmental experts allows Taiwan to successfully participate in the international community where official counterparts otherwise could not.
This work ascribes the same “back channel” principle to Taiwan’s military as a proven method to incorporate civil resilience domestically while building international connective tissue through Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HA/DR). Taking the success of Ukraine’s civil-military resistance efforts as a model and adapting them to Taiwan’s unique situation, a unified resistance coordinated between civilian organizations and military capabilities is essential to national defense. Late in starting this consolidation of civil defense organizations, Ukraine failed to deter irredentist Russia. If Taiwan is to avoid the same fate with China, a comprehensive resilience framework must be in place and a joint civil-military organization created.
Capitalizing on its current HA/DR capabilities for natural disasters, Taiwan can create a National Guard that unifies civil-defense efforts for similar man-made disasters that are currently fragmented between government, military, and private organizations. Communications, crisis management, roles and responsibilities, common operating picture, and force structure can be coordinated through this new National Guard. They would operate under the Ministry of Interior (MOI) as a part-time civilian organization in peacetime with law enforcement powers focusing on HA/DR, and a nationalized military organization focusing on civil defense and resistance in times of war. As a civilian volunteer organization, Taiwan’s National Guard could attend foreign training, exchanges, and real-world operations currently denied to Taiwan’s military.
Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SOF) played an equally vital role in civil-military resilience. Better trained and equipped than conventional forces, Ukraine’s SOF helped train, equip, and accompany National Guard and civil defense groups in operations supporting conventional forces. Taiwan’s SOF today lacks the critical skills of unconventional warfare, counterinsurgency, and special reconnaissance. They are separated between the Army, Navy, and Airforce and defanged in the hierarchy of each service. By consolidating SOF into a new joint command headquarters and updating their core tasks and capabilities to counter China’s hybrid threat, Taiwan’s SOF can be integral to the training, integration, and professionalization of the civil-military component of Taiwan’s National Guard.
Taiwan’s track 1.5 military model fills the role of the Garrison Defense Force and Civil Defense System outlined in the Force Structure Adjustment of All-Out Defense made by the Ministry of Defense (MND) in March of this year – but never clarified. It provides military linkage to the MND in times of war while building societal trust and value in peace-time HA/DR missions.
Current US and Taiwanese deterrence efforts focus primarily on improving conscription and reservist training while increasing conventional arms sales. This paper will demonstrate the shortsightedness of this endeavor as it neglects the largest and most capable demographic, 36 to 55 year-old Taiwanese. Affluent in society but over the age to be called-up for reserve service, they account for roughly 1/3 of the population and the majority of discretionary wealth and power. Overlooked by the military, middle-aged Taiwanese pose a significant value proposition to an overall defense concept if properly trained and organized. Multiple private organizations have instituted training to fill this void as middle-aged Taiwanese have the means and desire to pay out-of-pocket for preparedness.
Combining private, MOI, and MND volunteer organizations into a comprehensive resilience effort allows Taiwan to harness it’s most valuable and untapped natural resource – its middle-aged population. Taiwan’s redesigned SOF and new National Guard are cornerstones to this comprehensive resilience framework that when combined, stand as an integrated deterrence against China. |
| Reference: | References
539A. (2023, June 6). Tzu Chi Member. (T. Spencer, Interviewer)
Aljazeera. (2022, Aug 1). `If she dares`: China warns Nancy Pelosi against visiting Taiwan. Retrieved from Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/1/china-warns-pelosi-against-visiting-taiwan
Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydide`s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Borsari, F. (2022, March 15). Hunting the Invader: Ukraine`s Special Operations Troops. Retrieved from CEPA: https://cepa.org/article/hunting-the-invader-ukraines-special-operations-troops/
Bosco, J. (2018, February 26). Cross-Strait Relations: The Strategic Importance of Taiwan. Taiwan Insight.
Brands, H., & Beckley, M. (2022). Danger Zone, The Coming Conflict with China. W.W. Norton and Company.
Bullard, M. (1997). The Soldier and the Citizen, The Role of the Military in Taiwan`s Development. NY: East Gate.
Cai, Y., Feng, W., & Shen, K. (2018, December). Fiscal Implications of Population Aging and Social Sector Expenditure in China. Population and Development Review, 44(4), 811-831.
Campbell, C. (2021, October 1). Inside the Taiwan Firm that Makes the Worlds Tech Run. Retrieved from Time.Com: https://time.com/6102879/semiconductor-chip-shortage-tsmc/
Campbell, F. C. (2008). Elements of Metallurgy and Engineering Alloys. ASM International. doi:9780871708670.
Carbonnel, A. D. (2014, March 13). How the separatists deliverd Crimea to Moscow. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-aksyonov-idINL6N0M93AH20140313
Chaser, W. (2020, 07 20). Detailed Analysis of Taiwan`s Military Strength. Retrieved from https://read01.com/d0aAee7.html
Chen, L. C., Liu, Y. C., & Chan, K. C. (2006). Integrated Community-Based Disaster Management Program in Taiwan: A Case Study of Shang-An Village. Natural Hazards(37), 209-223. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000523
Cialdini, R. B. (1993). Influence: Science and Practice (3rd ed.). New York: HarperCollins.
Colby, H., & Ruslan, P. (2014). Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of teh Crisis in Ukraine. Minneapolis, Minnisota: Eastview Press.
Coutu, D. (2002, May). How Resilience Works. Harvard Business Review, 30. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2002/05/how-resilience-works
Defense, U. D. (2022). 2022 National Defense Strategy. Washington: US DoD.
Deng, C., & Qi, L. (2021, April 19). China Stresses Family Values as More Women Put Off Marriage, Childbirth. Wall Street Journal.
Devore, C. (2021, June 01). To Defend Its Freedom Taiwan Must Create a National Guard. Retrieved from The Federalist: thefederalist
Dieanu, A. (2022). The Role of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Within the War in Ukraine. International Scientific Conferece "STRATEGIESXXI".
Doshi, R. (2019). Hu`s to blame for China`s Foreign Assertiveness. Brookings Institute, 1-3.
Easton, I. (2022). The Final Struglle: Inside China`s Global Strategy. Manchester: Eastbridge Books.
Economist Intelligence. (2021, September 23). Asia reacts to AUKUS. Economist Intelligence, pp. 1-3.
Edmonds, M. (1988). Armed Services and Society. Leicester: Leicester University Press.
Fathi, K. (2022). Multi-Resilience-Development-Sustainability, Requirements for securing the future of societies in tgeh 21st century. Berlin, Germany: Springer. doi:978-3-658-37891-2
Feaver, P. (1999). Civil-Military Relations. Annual Review of Political Science(2), 211-241.
Feldman, H. (1991). Constitutional Reform and the Future of the Republic of China. (A. M. Sharpe, Ed.) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gersten, B. (Director). (2020). The Great Toilet Paper Scare [Motion Picture].
Goodkind, D. (2015). The claim that China`s fertility restrictions contributed to the use of prenatal sex selection: a sceptical reappraisal. Population Studies, 69.
Hanbury, M. (2021, November 29). Adult Diaper Sales in China Could Exceed Infant Diaper Sales by 2025, Research Suggests. Business Insider.
Harrison, M. (2017, Jul 13). The end of martial law: An important anniversary for Taiwan. Retrieved from Lowy Institute: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/end-martial-law-important-anniversary-taiwan
Hornblower, S. (2004, November 23). Wal-MNart and China: A Joint Venture. Retrieved from Frontline: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/walmart/secrets/wmchina.html
IMF National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2023). Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China from 2012 to 2022 with Forecasts until 2028. Statistica.
Inskeep, S. (2022, May 24). Ukraine`s stand is a model for fighting a Chinese attack, Taiwan`s top diplomat says. Retrieved from NPR: https://www.npr.org/2022/05/24/1100897990/taiwan-defense-china-ukraine-invasion-lessons-joseph-wu
International Monetary Fund. (2023, 05 11). PRC Country Data Real GDP growth. Retrieved from International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN#data
Jett, J., Luce, D., & Kwan, R. (2022). Empty threats? Fears grow as China fumes over possible Pelosi visit to Taiwan. NBC News. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pelosi-taiwan-china-america-fears-escalation-beijing-washington-biden-rcna40229
Jinping, X. (2022). The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Report to the Conference on behalf of the 19th Central Committee (p. 5). Beijing: Xinhuanet. Retrieved from http://www.gwytb.gov.cn/
Kofman, M., Migacheva, K., Nichiporuk, B., Radin, A., Tkacheva, O., & Oberholtzer, J. (2017). Lessons from Russia`s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. RAND Corporation. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1498.html.
Kuzan, S. (2021, September 7). Kyrylo Budanov: Ukrainian intelligence is able to conduct operations in any part of the world, if necessary. Retrieved from https://uscc.org.ua/en/kyrylo-budanov-ukrainianintelligence-
Life News. (2014, June 02). Ukraine returns peacekeepers from Africa to be deployed to the southeast. Retrieved from Life News: https://web.archive.org/web/20160303230629/http://lifenews.ru/news/134278
Lung, S. (2019). China`s GDP Growth Could be Half of Reported Number, Says US Economist at Prominent Chinese University. South China Morning Post. Retrieved from https://scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us
M.N.D. Taiwan. (2022, 06 01). All-out Defense Mobilization. Retrieved from Armed Forces Reserve Command, All-out Defense Mobilization Agency, M.N.D.: https://afrc.mnd.gov.tw/afrcweb/Content_en.aspx?MenuID=6305&MP=2
Mars, S. (2023, May 16). Taiwan Comprehensive Resilience Framework: Core Emergency Management Strategic Projects of National Fire Agency 2023-2028. (T. Spencer, Interviewer)
McDonald, P. (2009). The Invisible Hand of Peace: Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Ministry of National Defense, Republic of China. (2021). National Defense Report. Taipei: MND.
Moore, M. (2013, March 15). 336 million abortions under China`s one-child policy. Telegraph.
Morris, J. (2018, October 29). The Great Debate: Chiang Kai-shek`s Role in 21st Century Taiwan. Retrieved from The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/the-great-debate-chiang-kai-sheks-role-in-21st-century-taiwan/#:~:text=In%201948%2C%20the%20Nationalists%20placed%20all%20of%20mainland,officials%2C%20and%20elites%20from%20the%20mainland%20to%20Taiwan.
O`dougherty, W. M., Masten, A. S., & Narayan, A. J. (2013). Resilience Processes in Development: Four Waves of Research Adaptation in the Context of Adversity. In W. O`Dougherty, A. S. Masten, & A. J. Narayan, Handbook of Resilience in Children (In S. Goldstein & R.B. Brooks ed., pp. 15-37). Springer.
Open Knowledge. (2023, 06 20). Who We Are. Retrieved from Open Knowledge: https://okfn.org/who-we-are/
Pincus, W. (2022, April 12). U.S. SOCOM Has History with Ukraine`s Special Forces. Retrieved from The Cipher Brief: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/u-s-socom-has-history-with-ukraines-special-forces
Pion-Berlin, D., & Martinez, R. (2017). Solkdiers, Politicians, and Civilians: Reforming Civil=Military RElations in Democratic Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge Universtiy Press.
Rada of Ukraine. (2022, January 1). On the Basis of National Resistance. Retrieved from Zakon.Rada: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/en/1702-20?lang=en#Text
Raworth, S. (2022, February 20). Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson. Retrieved January 15, 2023, from BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60448162
Reik, T. (1965). Essay 3" The Unreachables. In T. Reik, The Repetition Compulsion in Jewish History (p. 133). New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
Rosenberg, M. (2019, April 03). Countries With the Most Neighbors. ThoughtCo., pp. 1-3.
Ross, J., & Smith, E. M. (2021, November 04). The "Made in Taiwan" Miracle. (S1-E12). Taipei, Taiwan.
Saito, Y., Wei, D., Hong, J., & Wilen, A. (2022, March 14). China Canceled H&M. Every Other Brand Needs to Understand Why. Retrieved from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-china-canceled-hm/
Sciutto, J., & Williams, K. B. (2022, February 25). US concerned Kyiv could fall to Russia within days, sources familiar with intel say. Retrieved from CNN Politics: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html
Seligman, L. (2022, May 19). `Deadly serious`: U.S. quietly urging Taiwan to follow Ukraine playbook for countering China. Retrieved from Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/deadly-serious-u-s-quietly-urging-taiwan-to-follow-ukraine-playbook-for-countering-china-00033792
Song, Y. (2011, August 25). Cronology of Mass Killings During the Chinese Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). Mass Violence & Résistance. Retrieved 05 2021, from http://bo-k2s.sciences-po.fr/mass-violence-war-massacre-resistance/en/document/chronology-mass-killings-during-chinese-cultural-revolution-1966-1976
Taliaferro, J. W. (2006, July-September). State Building for Future Wars: Neoclassical Realism and the Resource-Extractive State. Security Studies, 15(3), 464-495. doi:10.1080/09636410601028370
Telegraph. (2014, August 28). Serving Russian Soldiers on Leave Fighting Ukrainian Troops Alongside Rebels, Pr-Russian Separtist Leader Says.
Thompson, D. (2021, October). Winning the Fight Taiwan Cannot Afford to Lose. Strategic Forum, National Defense University(SF No. 310), 15.
Tsai, I.-W. (2022, 12 27). President Tsai announces military force realignment plan. Retrieved from Office of the President Republic of China (Taiwan): https://english.president.gov.tw/NEWS/6417
Tsai, I.-W. (2022, 10 10). President Tsai delivers 2022 National Day Address. Retrieved from Office of the President Republic of China (Taiwan): https://english.president.gov.tw/News/6348
Tusaie, J. D. (2004). Resilience: A historical review of the construct. Holistic Nursing Practice(18), 3-10.
Tweten, C. (2021, May 27). Fitbit`s Marketing Strategy: 500% User Growth in 7 years. Retrieved May 10, 2023, from Growsurf: https://growsurf.com/blog/fitbit-marketing-strategy
U.S. Department of Defense. (2022). 2022 National Defense Strategy. Washington D.C.: US DoD.
U.S. Department of Defense. (2022, June 1). Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine. Retrieved from U.S. Department of Defense: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3049483/fact-sheet-on-us-security-assistance-to-ukraine
Urbanska, T. (2018, February 18). Operation "Crimea is Ours".
Wang, F., & Mason, A. (2007). Demographic dividend and prospects for economic development in China. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, (p. 155). Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/Proceedings_EGM_Mex_2005/full_report.pdf#page=155
Wu, E. (2023, June 01). Forward Alliance. (T. Spencer, Interviewer)
Yang, C.-y., & Liu, T.-h. (2022, September 23). Firefighters overworked, underpaid, NPP says. Retrieved from Taipei Times: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/09/23/2003785797
Yang, Y., Hille, K., & Liu, Q. (2020, September 27). China`s biggest chipmaker SMIOC hit by US sanctions. Financial Times, 3.
Yoshihara, T. (2020). Evaluating the Logic and Methods of China`s United Front Work. Obris, 64(2), 230-248.
Yu, C.-F. (2021). Building a defense force that has the confidence and trust of the people, the country, and the friends and allies. Leesburg, Virginia: US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference 2021.
Yu, M., & Yeh, J. (2021, 12 30). New mobilization agency formed to show Taiwan`s resolute all-out defense: Tsai. Retrieved from ROC Central News Agency: https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2021/taiwan-211230-cna01.htm
Yuan, L. (2022, August 4). Perils of Preaching Nationalism Play Out on Chinese Social Media. Retrieved from The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/04/business/new-world-nancy-pelosi-taiwan-social-media.html
Zenz, A. (2018, March 12). China`s Domestic Security Spending: An Analysis of Available Data. China Brief, no.4.
Zinin, V. (2015, July 22). " Igra v soldatikov: Pochemu reputatsiya armii okazalas` pod ugrozoy" ("Playing Soldiers: Why the Army`s reputation is threatened"). Retrieved July 2023, from Gazeta.Ru: http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2015/07/22_e_7652977.shtml |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
110862012 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110862012 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 201201.pdf | | 3720Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 121 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
