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    Title: 中國大陸防疫政策觀點在微博群體極化現象中的研究
    A Study on Polarization within Weibo Communities in Response to Mainland China's COVID-19 Prevention Policies
    Authors: 陳史
    Contributors: 黃葳威
    陳史
    Keywords: 群體極化
    防疫政策
    清零
    微博
    新冠肺炎
    Group polarization
    Prevention Policies
    Zero-COVID
    Weibo
    COVID-19
    Date: 2024
    Issue Date: 2024-05-02 10:26:22 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 中國大陸自武漢疫情就一直採取較為嚴格的清零防疫措施,但在2022年3月上海疫情以後,由於政策執行的不力引發許多問題,再加上世界其他各國也在該時間節點前後陸續宣布解封,進而引發了中國大陸社群媒體上對防疫觀點的爭論——「中國大陸疫情到底該實施清零還是共存政策?」
    本文採用內容分析、文本分析和詞頻分析的研究方法,對2022年3月至2023年1月意見領袖發布的1541條微博進行了分析。研究結果顯示,支持清零的態度為:(1)提前預判了共存後的風險,不能簡單把COVID-19與流感等同;(2)攻擊美國或不少與美國交好的國家因其共存導致的高死亡率;(3)不滿網紅張文宏醫生過早提出「要與病毒共存」的說法。而支持共存的態度為:(1)否認共存即躺平,共存的準備特別強調要提高疫苗接種率;(2)採用清零政策也需要付出巨大的代價;(3)將新加坡作為共存參考。
    此外將整個時間線分為三個階段後發現,該案例在觀點立場上呈現出「完全支持清零」佔據絕大多數的趨同狀態。況且,縱使在其中出現了中堅分子(the hand cores)」和「先鋒(avant-gardes)」去打破主流意見的聲浪,但從佔比分析來看並未出現沈默螺旋倒轉的狀況。而且極端的清零支持者會依據當時發生的疫情事件進一步鞏固和合理化自己的既有傾向,並在碰到意見不合者後表現出反駁的態度,所謂的走出同溫層和過濾氣泡不會使人變溫和,只會更極端。社交媒體的非私密性和半公共性的屬性的確方便了閱聽人直面公共議題,但總體上來說並未阻止群體極化現象的產生。
    Since the Wuhan epidemic, mainland China has been implementing relatively strict zero-COVID measures. However, after the Shanghai epidemic in March 2022, due to inadequate policy implementation, coupled with other countries around the world gradually announcing reopening around that time, it triggered debates on epidemic prevention strategies in mainland China's social media—specifically, whether mainland China should continue with zero-COVID policies or adopt a coexistence approach.
    This study adopts content analysis, text analysis, and word frequency analysis to analyze 1541 Weibo posts from opinion leaders between March 2022 to January 2023. The research results show that attitudes supporting zero-COVID include: (1) Anticipating the risks of coexistence in advance and emphasizing that COVID-19 cannot be equated with influenza; (2) Criticizing the United States and other countries with close ties to the U.S. for their high death rates due to coexistence policies; (3) Displeasure with Dr. Zhang Wenhong, a popular figure, for prematurely suggesting the idea of "living with the virus." Attitudes supporting coexistence include: (1) Rejecting the idea that coexistence means passivity and emphasizing the need to increase vaccination rates for coexistence preparation; (2) Noting that implementing zero-COVID policies also comes with significant costs; (3) Referring to Singapore as a model for coexistence.
    Furthermore, dividing the timeline into three stages, it was found that the case exhibited a trend of "complete support for zero-COVID" dominating the majority of viewpoints. Although there were voices from moderates and avant-gardes challenging the mainstream opinions, the analysis of proportions did not indicate a reversal of the silent spiral. Moreover, extreme supporters of zero-COVID tended to further consolidate and rationalize their existing tendencies based on the epidemic events at that time, and they displayed a rebuttal attitude when encountering dissenting opinions. The so-called "breaking out of echo chambers and filter bubbles" does not necessarily make people more moderate; instead, it may make them more extreme. While the non-private and semi-public nature of social media facilitates public engagement with issues, it has not prevented the emergence of group polarization overall.
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