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    题名: 台灣房市之超額購屋負擔檢視
    An Examination of Excessive Housing Affordability in Taiwan Housing Market
    作者: 梁昱宏
    Liang, Yu-Hung
    贡献者: 陳明吉
    Chen, Ming-Chi
    梁昱宏
    Liang, Yu-Hung
    关键词: 房價壓力
    購屋負擔極限
    購屋可負擔能力之超額水準
    Housing Price Pressure
    Maximum Home-Buying Burden
    Excessive Housing Affordability
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-07-01 12:39:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 台灣過去20餘年房價水準不斷攀升，然而薪資水準並無同步提高，進而衍生出民眾購屋負擔之議題，而過去多數討論購屋負擔議題之研究大多圍繞於房價所得比(Housing Price to Income Ratio, PIR)，然而購屋負擔能力不只與房屋價格或是家戶所得有關，而是與當時之融資條件，包含利率水準、貸款之還款期限及貸款成數，以及影響所得之生活支出有關，本研究延伸並改良 Gan and Hill(2009)之研究方法，著重探討考量家戶所得與利率水準、貸款之還款期限及貸款成數，量化台灣每年購屋極限價格，並與實際房價做比較計算購屋可負擔能力之超額水準，購屋可負擔能力之超額水準探討的重點會聚焦於台灣之直轄市以及不動產因子進行分析，不動產因子包含不動產總面積(坪)、主建物占比(%)、屋齡、房價(總價)、不動產型態(透天厝、公寓、華廈及住宅大樓)，最後使用行政院主計總處公布各年度家庭收支調查報告之戶數五等分位組之平均每戶可支配所得表為依據區分高中低收入級距下探討購屋極限價格之試算以及對各直轄市區分收入為高中低族群進行購屋可負擔能力之超額水準分析。實證結果顯示，購屋可負擔能力之超額水準部分與不動產因子及型態呈正向顯著，其中不動產型態與不動產因子交乘中，不動產型態為透天厝之主建物占比及住宅大樓之不動產總面積影響超額購屋負擔最大，來到1278.3萬元39.81萬元，進一步檢視直轄市之迴歸結果，顯示台北與新北市超額負擔最為嚴重，來到743.36及135.87萬元，區分高中低所得下，台北市不管高中或低收入族群皆有正向購屋可負擔能力之超額水準並於低所得族群中最嚴重。
    Over the past two decades, Taiwan has seen continuous increases in housing prices without corresponding rises in wages, raising concerns about homeownership affordability. While most prior studies on this issue focused on the Housing Price to Income Ratio (PIR), affordability isn't solely determined by housing prices and income levels. Factors like interest rates, loan terms, loan-to-value ratios, and living expenses also play crucial roles. This study builds on Gan and Hill's (2009) methodology to calculate Taiwan's annual maximum affordable housing price, considering income levels, interest rates, and other financing conditions. It compares this figure with actual housing prices to assess excess affordability, examining major municipalities and key real estate factors such as area, building ratio, age, and type (detached houses, apartments, etc.).
    Using household income data from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, different income groups (high, medium, low) are analyzed to determine maximum affordable housing prices and excess affordability levels across municipalities. The study finds significant positive correlations between excess affordability and various real estate factors and types. Notably, factors like building ratio for detached houses and total real estate area for residential buildings have substantial impacts on excess affordability, up to NT$12.783 million and NT$398.1 thousand, respectively. Regression analysis highlights Taipei and New Taipei City as having the most severe excess affordability burdens, with levels reaching NT$7.4336 million and NT$1.3587 million, respectively, especially affecting low-income households in Taipei.
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