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| Title: | 全球供應鏈與新冠疫情衝擊：臺灣與東協十六國之貿易動態分析
Global Supply Chains and COVID-19 Impacts: A Trade Dynamics Analysis of Taiwan and the ASEAN-16 Countries |
| Authors: | 柯佑潔
Ko, Yu-Chieh |
| Contributors: | 蔡致遠
Tsai, Chi-Yuan
柯佑潔
Ko, Yu-Chieh |
| Keywords: | 新冠疫情
全球價值鏈
貿易引力模型
附加價值研究
COVID-19
Global Value Chain
Gravity Model of Trade
Value-added analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 11:57:18 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究探討新冠疫情對臺灣及東協十六國的貿易影響，藉由傳統引力模型以及卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法 （Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, PPML），使用 2019 年 1 月至 2022 年 9 月期間的貿易數據結合疫情確診病例數資料進行實證分析，以附加價值研究探討疫情在供應鏈貿易下對國際貿易影響的短期、後期與長期效應。此外，研究中亦計算出口國對中國中間財貿易的進口份額，考慮疫情衝擊經由中國供應鏈的間接傳遞途徑。研究結果顯示，短期內，新冠疫情對臺灣和東協十六國的出口貿易具有即時的負面效果，對中國供應鏈的參與度增加將加劇雙邊貿易的不利影響。然而，各國在後期與長期的應對策略調整下，疫情嚴重程度的影響力顯著減緩。另外，針對進口國與出口國的供應鏈相對位置進行分析，位於供應鏈上游的國家更容易受到突發性衝擊，而在相對下游的國家較能靈活調整供應鏈和生產策略以應對疫情帶來的變化。
This study investigates the effects of the pandemic on trade for Taiwan and sixteen ASEAN countries. Employing the traditional gravity model and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation (PPML), this analysis integrates trade data from January 2019 to September 2022 with COVID-19 case numbers to conduct empirical research across 17 exporting countries and 75 importing countries. The study explores the short-term, subsequent, and long-term effects of the pandemic on international trade within supply chain dynamics by analyzing added value. Additionally, the research also accounts for the import share of intermediate goods from China by the exporting countries, considering the indirect transmission of the pandemic impact through the Chinese supply chain. Results indicate that, in the short term, COVID-19 had an immediate negative impact on the exports of Taiwan and ASEAN countries, with an increase in involvement with the Chinese supply chain exacerbating the adverse bilateral trade effects. However, as countries adjusted their strategies in the later stages, the severity of the pandemic's impact significantly diminished. Moreover, the analysis of the relative positions in the supply chain shows that countries located upstream are more susceptible to sudden disruptions, while those downstream are better able to adapt their supply chains and production strategies to cope with changes brought about by the pandemic. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
111351026 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351026 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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