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| Title: | 股票財富變動對退休行為的影響
The Effect of Stock Wealth on Retirement |
| Authors: | 廖文儀
Liao, Wen-Yi |
| Contributors: | 羅光達
韓幸紋
Lo, Kuang-Ta
Han, Hsing-Wen
廖文儀
Liao, Wen-Yi |
| Keywords: | 股票財富變動
退休年齡
金融危機
工具變數
Changes in stock wealth
Retirement age
Financial crisis
Instrumental variable |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 14:44:11 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文利用2008年金融危機所提供的股市外生衝擊作為準實驗，探討股票財富變動對個人退休年齡的影響。與過去文獻不同，我們使用2004年至2022年的財稅行政資料，追蹤中高齡勞動者長期的勞動市場參與情形，另外，考慮股票投資與退休決策互相影響產生的內生性問題，本文以工具變數兩階段最小平方法估計股票財富變動之效果。
研究結果顯示，股票財富減少1百萬元會使中高齡勞動者平均多工作22天，而年齡愈大的勞工愈容易受到股票財富變動而改變其退休規劃，但整體而言股票財富變動對退休時點的影響微乎其微。此外，根據不同的個人特性，本研究發現男性較容易受到股票財富下跌的影響而延後退休，且單身男性最為容易受到影響；有小孩的勞動者較不容易因股票財富波動而改變退休決策；擁有較多非股票財富的個人較能抵抗股票財富下跌所造成的延後退休效果；未發現低勞動所得者會因股票財富波動而改變退休時點，但高勞動所得者明顯會因股票財富減少而延後退休。最後，本文透過調整樣本篩選門檻與替換工具變數檢驗前述估計效果，發現結果相當穩健，股票財富並不如預期般對個人退休行為有深刻的影響。
This paper estimates the effect of changes in stock wealth on retirement age by using the 2008 financial crisis as a quasi-experiment. Different from previous literature, we utilize fiscal administrative data from 2004 to 2022 to track the long-term labor market participation of middle-aged and elderly workers. To address endogeneity bias, this study uses the two-stage least squares method to estimate the causal effect of changes in individuals’ stock wealth on retirement decisions.
Our results indicate that a 1 million NTD decrease in stock wealth would postpone workers’ retirement by 22 days on average. Furthermore, older workers are more sensitive to stock wealth changes. However, overall, the effect of stock wealth fluctuations on the timing of retirement is minimal. In addition, we find that the effect varies across individual characteristics: men, especially single men, are more likely to postpone retirement due to stock losses. Workers with children and those with substantial non-stock assets are less likely to alter their retirement plans in response to stock wealth fluctuations. High-income earners tend to postpone retirement when stock wealth decreases, while low-income earners show no such trend. Lastly, we test the robustness by adjusting the sample selection thresholds and replacing the instrumental variable, and we find that the results are quite robust. These findings suggest that stock wealth does not have as profound an impact on individual retirement behavior as expected. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255004 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255004 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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