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| Title: | 貧困縣政策是否間接產生地方的財政濫用 —以中國汽車市場為例
Does the poverty alleviation policy indirectly lead to local fiscal abuse? —Evidence from Chinese automotive market |
| Authors: | 詹沐融
Chan, Mu-Jung |
| Contributors: | 胡偉民
黃柏鈞
Hu, Wei-Min
Huang, Po-Chun
詹沐融
Chan, Mu-Jung |
| Keywords: | 貧困縣政策
財政貪腐
雙重差分法
Poverty alleviation policies
Corruption
Difference-in-difference method |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 14:46:22 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 據聯合國2015年通過的永續發展目標（SDGs）所述，全球領導人被要求在2030年前消除貧窮。然而，貪腐可能成為實現此目標的重要障礙，因為貪腐不僅會阻礙經濟發展，還可能加劇政治和社會的不穩定。儘管中國在2020年提前宣布實現全面脫貧，擺脫了絕對貧窮，然而有許多報導揭露了貧困縣可能存在貪腐問題，這也引發了民眾的不滿。本研究旨在探討貧困縣政策的灰色地帶，以觀察是否有證據證實這種現象的存在。
本研究以中國40多年的貧困縣政策作為研究主題，將第三次貧困縣調整視為政策時間節點，探討「近貧困縣」在升格為國家級貧困縣後，獲得大量財政扶持資金是否會影響其原有行為。我們從汽車市場的角度切入，利用雙重差分法(Difference-in-Difference)結合傾向分數配對法(PSM)、反向機率加權法(IPW)進行估計。結果顯示，實驗組相對於對照組顯著增加了對公務用車的購買，且更偏好購買進口車系和非中央政府規定的車型，這些跡象顯示出了地方政府存在財政濫用的證據。另外，我們也在穩健性測試中使用了PSM搭配Synthetic Difference-in-Difference的方法(Arkhangelsky et al.2021)，結果也十分穩健，各種情形下也滿足了平行趨勢。研究的結論指出，上級的移轉支付可能導致地方產生財政濫用，尤其是隱性濫用。
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by the United Nations in 2015, call on world leaders to eradicate poverty by 2030. However, corruption poses a significant challenge to achieving this goal, as it hampers economic development, exacerbates poverty, and intensifies political and social instability. Although China declared complete eradication of absolute poverty ahead of schedule in 2020, there continue to be reports of corruption in poverty-stricken counties. This study explores the grey areas of corruption in poverty-stricken counties and investigates empirically whether there is evidence to support the occurrence of this phenomenon.
Drawing on China's poverty alleviation policies spanning over 40 years, this study focuses on the third adjustment of poverty-stricken counties as the policy time point. We evaluate whether the behavior of "near-poverty counties" changes after they become National Poor Counties (hereafter NPCs) and receive significant financial support. Taking the perspective of the automotive market, we employ the Difference-in-Difference (DID) method combined with Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) to estimate the main results. We find that the treatment group significantly purchases more official vehicles compared to the control group. Additionally, they prefer to purchase imported car series and models not mandated by the central government, indirectly indicating evidence of local government financial misuse. Furthermore, in robustness tests, we use PSM combined with the Synthetic Difference-in-Difference method (Arkhangelsky et al., 2021), and consistently find results aligning with the main findings, with all scenarios passing the parallel trends test. This result suggests that transfers from higher levels of government may lead to fiscal abuse at the local level, particularly in the form of implicit misuse. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255025 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255025 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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