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| Title: | 再探湄公河流域水資源治理：中國因素與區域國家的回應
Unpacking Water Resource Governance in the Mekong Basin: China Factors and Response from the Region |
| Authors: | 林麗娥
Lin, Li-O |
| Contributors: | 楊昊
Yang Hao
林麗娥
Lin, Li-O |
| Keywords: | 威權體制類型
遴選集團
水電
對外直接投資
湄公河
Autocratic Regime Type
Selectorate Theory
Hydropower
Foreign Direct Investment
Mekong River |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:21:54 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 中美兩國在科技、貿易和意識形態等領域的競爭都接近冷戰2.0，而湄公河地區可能成為亞洲權力競爭的戰場。區域權力競爭對系統性權力制衡的影響至關重要。在特定地區發生的行動揭示了當前國際體系中正在發生的權力轉換。美國、日本、韓國和澳洲等在與湄公河國家合作上都有各自的倡議，形成了以層疊型區域主義(nesting regionalism)為特色的治理架構。中國於2016年推出由其主導的瀾滄合作組織(Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, LMC)，來強化其區域領導地位。
美國、日本的湄公河倡議，專注於改善湄公河的環境，利用非傳統安全問題來提高其在該地區的地緣政治影響力。中國崛起後透過外國直接投資，積極參與開發中南半島國家的水電資源，企圖控制東南亞的水電發展。水電開發被視為可持續經濟發展的代名詞，以增強國家權力的穩定與合法性，儘管下游五國均有發展上的需求，面對中國的紅色資金卻存在著不同的發展差異。本文主要以緬甸、寮國和柬埔寨為個案，從威權體制的差異解釋這些國家如何隨著威權型態的不同與中國水電開發的合作結果有所不同。儘管緬甸一度出現民主發展的契機，但仍然主要是軍事威權體制，寮國為定期選舉的政黨獨裁，柬埔寨則是個人獨裁，每個國家領導人的政治生存邏輯不一樣，對於水資源開發則有不同的優先偏好。緬甸水資源豐富的地區都集中在克倫邦、撣邦和克欽邦等武裝民族與軍政府衝突地區，由於中央對水電利益的分配不均，促使地方發動內戰，由於不影響領導存續，緬甸領導人首要的生存策略就是「鎮壓」地方民族軍，也導致許多水電站的開發停止或延遲，影響了水電的發展。寮國、柬埔寨領導人偏好的生存策略是透過水電發展來增加財政自主性，「酬庸」親信來獲取支持，因此傾向與中國合作，計畫在湄公河及境內水域建造一系列水壩。
As both China and the US are moving closer to a Cold War 2.0 in areas such as technology, trade and ideology, the Mekong region could become a next battleground for such a power rivalry. The effects of regional power competition matter to the systemic balance of power. Actions that are occurring in a given region (e.g. the LMC) reveal the current power transformation that is occurring in the international system.The Mekong River initiative of the United States and Japan focuses on improving the environment of the Mekong River and using non-traditional security issues to enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.China actively participated in the development of hydropower with Indochina Peninsula countries through foreign direct investment (FDI). Hydropower is regarded as sustainable economic development, which can enhance the stability and legitimacy of state power. This article takes Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia mostly as case study from the differences in authoritarian regime to explain why the countries have different decision-making outcomes under China's hydropower FDI. Myanmar's democratic transition was interrupted by the 2021 coup, it is still military dictatorships, while Laos is still party-based dictatorships, Cambodia is still personal dictatorships. The political survival logic of the three country leaders are different from each other. Myanmar civil wars were caused due to the uneven distribution of hydropower interests by the central government. Myanmar leaders' first survival strategy is to suppress the local ethnic army that make many hydropower developments delay or stop. The survival strategy of Laos and Combodia leaders is prefer to increase fiscal autonomy through hydropower to seek support from the winning coalition. Laos and Combodia tend to cooperate with China and plan to build dams in the Mekong river and other rivers. |
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43. Shira Yoffe, Aaron T. Wolf, and Mark Giordano, 2003/10. “Conflict and Cooperation Over International Freshwater Resources: Indicators of Basins at Risk,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 39, pp. 1109-1126.
44. Siciliano Giuseppina, Frauke Urban ,May Tan-Mullins ,Lonn Pichdara, andSour Kim, 2016/09.” The Political Ecology of Chinese Large Dams in Cambodia: Implications, Challenges and Lessons Learnt from the Kamchay Dam,” Water, Vol.8, Issue 9, pp.1-18.
45. Tomashevskiy Andrey, 2017/04. “Investing in Violence: Foreign Direct Investment and Coups in Authoritarian Regimes,” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 79, No. 2, pp. 409-423.
46. Thomas Ambrosio, 2010/11. “Constructing a Framework of Authoritarian Diffusion: Concepts, Dynamics, and Future Research,” International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp.375–392.
47. Tran Thong Anh, Suhardiman Diana, 2020/3. “Laos' hydropower development and cross-border power trade in the Lower Mekong Basin: A discourse analysis,” Energy Policy, Vol. 61, No. 2, pp. 219-235.
48. Urban Frauke, Nordensva¨rd Johan, Khatri Deepika, Wang Yu, 2012/04. “An analysis of China’s investment in the hydropower sector in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region,” Environment Development and Sustainability, Vol. 15, No.2, pp. 301–324.
49. Un Kheang and So Sokbunthoeun, 2011/06. “Land rights in Cambodia: How neopatrimonial politics restricts land policy reform, ” Pacific Affairs, Vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 289–308.
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學位論文
1. Yorth, Bunny, 2014. International Mekong River Basin: Events, Conflicts or Cooperation, and Policy Implications, Oregon State University.
網際網路
1. Nang Shining, 2016/12/16. Hydropower in Myanmar: For Whose Benefit? Transnational Institute, <https://www.tni.org/en/article/hydropower-in-myanmar-for-whose-benefit>.
2. Phillip Guerreiro, 2022/8/30. Is China making Laos the battery of Southeast Asia, or wrecking the Mekong delta? Asia & the Pacific Policy Society, <https://www.policyforum.net/giving-a-dam-in-the-mekong-basin/>.
3. Laos and its Dams: Southeast Asia's Battery, Built by China, Radio Free Asia, <https://www.rfa.org/english/news/special/china-build-laos-dams/>.
4. RFA Lao, 2024/02/28.China Poised to Become Top Trading Partner of Laos in 2024” Radio Free Asia, <https://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/chinese-investment-02282024151635.html>.
5. Sim Vireak, 2014/07/30.“Cambodia’s Hydroelectric Question: China Power and the Environment”, The Diploment,
<https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/cambodias-hydroelectric-question-china-power-and-the-environment/>.
6. Phyu Hnin, 2024/04/03. “How a Fractured Myanmar is Navigating U.S.-China Rivalry”, United States Institute of Peace, <https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/04/how-fractured-myanmar-navigating-us-china-rivalry>.
7. Michiel Verver, Jake Wieczorek,” Politics and society in contemporary Cambodia”, The Newsletter 78 Autumn 2017, <https://www.iias.asia/the-newsletter/article/politics-society-contemporary-cambodia>.
8. World Report 2024: Cambodia, <https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/cambodia>.
9. Sim Vireak, 2014/07/30.“Cambodia’s Hydroelectric Question: China Power and the Environment”, The Diploment,
<https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/cambodias-hydroelectric-question-china-power-and-the-environment/>.
10. “Chinese Energy Investment in Cambodia: Fuelling Industrialisation or Undermining Development Goals?” The People’s Map, May 6, 2021,
<https://thepeoplesmap.net/2021/05/06/chinese-energy-investment-in-cambodia-fuelling-industrialisation-or-undermining-development-goals/>. |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
100260502 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100260502 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
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