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| Title: | 新冠肺炎疫情期間國際房價之探討
A Study of International Housing Prices during the COVID-19 Era |
| Authors: | 鐘柏堯
Chung, Po-Yao |
| Contributors: | 朱芳妮
Chu, Fang-Ni
鐘柏堯
Chung, Po-Yao |
| Keywords: | 房價
新冠肺炎疫情
國際房市
調控政策
追蹤資料自我迴歸分配遞延模型
Housing Prices
COVID-19 Pandemic
International Housing Markets
Regulatory Policy
Panel ARDL |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:27:42 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在2019年新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19) 爆發後，對社會經濟帶來嚴重衝擊，各國房市也在同時受到前所未有的震盪。雖然疫情導致各國經濟進入蕭條，但房地產市場卻在全球性的COVID-19疫情中，於多種基本面、非基本面因素以及各國因應疫情所實施的紓困和振興經濟措施下，逆勢進入榮景。由於全球性大流行的疫情在近代史上少有發生，因此研究COVID-19疫情期間國際房價之變化對政府與投資人均具有啟示性。目前學術上對於疫情期間跨國房市的研究依然不充分，且並未跨國分析非基本面因素與房市調控政策的影響。因此，本研究使用Panel ARDL 模型分析COVID-19期間的建築成本、總體經濟、貨幣政策與疫情嚴重程度對於台灣、南韓、新加坡、美國、紐西蘭、英國與愛爾蘭房市的影響，並從房市非基本面因素，探討疫情媒體恐慌情緒與經濟政策不確定性如何影響房地產市場。最後分析同時期各國緊縮性房市調控政策的效應。
本研究將疫情期間影響房價的因素分為市場基本面因素以及基於人性之非基本面因素。在基本面因素方面，COVID-19期間的大盤股價指數與政策利率對各國房價有顯著影響，顯示疫情時期總體經濟與貨幣政策在各國房市發展中的重要性。而新增確診數與營造工程物價指數的影響則不顯著。關於非基本面因素，疫情媒體恐慌指數對房價有顯著負向影響，顯示出對於突發事件的恐慌心態會暫時性減少購屋需求。經濟政策不確定性指數對房價產生正向影響，因不確定性使房市供給減少，而避險需求增加。
COVID-19期間各國針對過熱房市所制定的調控政策難以改變房市參與者之預期，使其並無顯著抑制房價之效應。然而，這樣的結果並不意味著這些政策完全無效。這些政策的主要目標是穩定房市並維持金融系統的穩定，不應僅關注政策是否導致房價顯著下跌。實證結果顯示，房市調控政策的宣布在短期對房價則有顯著正向影響。COVID-19期間的寬鬆貨幣政策與恐慌性購屋情緒，使得政策宣布後在短期內助長了購屋需求；再加上同時期針對剛性的自住需求的協助性措施，都可能使政策無法達到預期的影響。因此，若未來有相似的狀況發生，政策制定者可以考慮採取非典型的房市調控政策作法。
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019, the pandemic plunged economies into a recession, but the real estate market surprisingly entered a boom during the global COVID-19 pandemic due to various fundamental, non-fundamental factors and economic stimulus measures. Since such a global pandemic are rare in modern history, the changes in international housing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic are highly instructive for governments and investors. This study uses the Panel ARDL model to analyze the impact of construction costs, macroeconomic factors, and monetary policy on the real estate markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Ireland during the COVID-19 era. It also explores how media panic and economic policy uncertainty affect the real estate market from the perspective of non-fundamental factors. Finally, the study examines the impact of housing market regulatory policies.
Among the fundamental factors, the stock price indexes and policy interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on housing prices in various countries, highlighting the importance of the macroeconomy and monetary policies in the development of housing markets during the pandemic. However, the number of new confirmed cases and the construction cost index did not have a significant impact. In terms of non-fundamental factors, the coronavirus media panic index had a significant negative impact on housing prices, indicating that panic attitudes towards extreme events temporarily reduced housing demand. Economic policy uncertainty had a positive impact on housing prices, as uncertainty led to a decrease in market supply and an increase in demand for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 era.
Housing market regulatory policies during the COVID-19 period struggled to alter market participants' expectations and didn’t significantly suppress housing prices. However, this does not imply that the policies were entirely ineffective. The primary objective of these policies is to stabilize the housing market and maintain financial stability, and not solely be on whether housing prices significantly decrease. The empirical results show that the announcement of housing market regulation policies had a significant positive impact in the short term. Loose monetary policies and FOMO home-buying sentiment during COVID-19 likely boosted demand shortly after the policy announcements. Additionally, supportive measures for essential housing demand during this time may have prevented the policies from achieving their intended effects. Therefore, if similar situations occur in the future, policymakers might consider using unconventional tools for housing market regulation. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
111257013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
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| 701301.pdf | | 6165Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
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