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| Title: | 碳稅與稅收循環政策對脆弱家戶影響之研究
The Impacts of the Carbon Tax and Revenue Recycling Policy on Vulnerable Households |
| Authors: | 許毓庭
Hsu, Yu-Ting |
| Contributors: | 蕭代基
Shaw, Dai-Gee
許毓庭
Hsu, Yu-Ting |
| Keywords: | 環境稅制改革
稅收循環
定額移轉
累退性
脆弱家戶
climate change
revenue recycling policy
lump-sum transfer
carbon tax
vulnerable households |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:38:02 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 氣候變遷已成為各國急迫處理的重大議題之一，我國亦無法置身事外，於2022年公布2050淨零排放路徑及策略總說明，隨後為加速減碳行動，將溫管法修正並更名為《氣候變遷因應法》修正內容中除了包含2050淨零目標，亦涵蓋了我國預計於2024年實施的碳費制度相關條文，而我國國發會在2023年公布的公正轉型戰略行動計畫中，則將淨零轉型中可能使民生消費支出增加而使中低收入戶受到負面衝擊的議題列入因應目標之一。
過往研究多關注實施碳定價政策後的總體效果，如減排效果、GDP、就業量等議題，較少研究關注在碳定價實施下，各類型家戶所會遭受到支出面、所得面的衝擊和影響，故本研究利用E3ME總體計量模型預測課徵碳稅後對各類商品、家戶所得的變動，以分析不同稅額的碳稅實施後，如何影響不同家戶的支出情形和負擔。
接著本研究使用我國家庭收支調查原始資料，先將家戶依可支配所得進行分組，並將碳稅稅收進行不同比例的運用，以了解其改善所得分配之效果。進而利用家庭收支調查中可獲取的家戶特徵來進行分析，以了解具有何種特徵的家庭可能在碳稅實施下面臨較平均而言為高的負面衝擊，以辨別出淨零轉型下的脆弱群體。
本研究發現，低所得家庭在碳稅課徵下面臨較高所得家庭更大的負面衝擊，如將碳稅收入百分之百進行定額移轉，各所得組皆可獲得正的淨所得並可有效改善中低所得組的衝擊；如只使用百分之五十的碳稅收入返還於民，各所得組皆為負的淨所得，且仍為低所得者有較高的負擔，故本文進而探討兩種僅針對中低所得家戶的返還方式，發現只針對中低所得家戶進行發還，在情境一和情境二分別只需運用17.91%和18.33%的碳稅收入，即可抵銷中低所得家戶的負面衝擊；如使用返還金額加倍（定額移轉予全民的金額乘以二，並只返還給中低所得家戶）的作法，在情境一和二分別只需運用27.38%和27.39%的碳稅收入，即可使中低所得家戶有正的淨所得增額。
最後，本研究在脆弱家戶特徵的分析上，分別以全體家戶和僅以所得級距一之家戶特徵進行分析，如以全體家戶進行分析，高齡家庭、經濟戶長65歲以上之家庭、教育程度國中之經濟戶長、單人家庭、夫婦二人家庭、祖孫二代家庭有較高的支出負擔比例，其中祖孫二代家庭、所得級距一的家戶支出金額增加較少且該增額卻占其所得比例高於全體平均，屬於本文所定義之脆弱家戶；如僅以所得級距一的家戶進行分析，在級距一的家戶中，不論使用何種特徵分類，其負擔比例都會略高於全體算出來的負擔比例，故在級距一中我們辨別出負擔比例高於級距一全體平均負擔比例的特徵，有：高齡家庭、經濟戶長65歲以上之家庭、經濟戶長教育程度大學以上、經濟戶長教育程度高中職及專科、核心家庭以及夫婦二人家庭。
Previous research has mostly focused on the overall effects of implementing carbon pricing policies, such as emission reduction, GDP, and employment. However, there has been less focus on the impact on expenditures and incomes of different household types under carbon pricing. Therefore, this study uses the E3ME macro-econometric model to predict changes in the costs of various goods and household incomes after the imposition of a carbon tax. The analysis aims to understand how different carbon tax rates affect household spending and financial burdens.
We use the Taiwan Family Income and Expenditure Survey to group households based on disposable income and applies carbon tax revenues in various proportions to assess the effect on income distribution. By analyzing household characteristics available in the survey, this essay identifies which types of households might face higher-than-average negative impacts under carbon tax implementation, thereby identifying vulnerable households in the net-zero transition.
This essay finds that low-income households face greater negative impacts compared to higher-income households under carbon taxation. If 100% of the carbon tax revenue is returned equally, all income groups can achieve a net gain, effectively mitigating the impact on low-income groups. However, if only 50% of the carbon tax revenue is returned, all income groups experience a net loss, with low-income households bearing a higher burden. Therefore, we further explored two redistribution methods targeting only middle and low-income households. It finds that targeting only middle and low-income households would require using just 17.91% and 18.33% of the carbon tax revenue in scenarios one and two, respectively, to offset the negative impacts on these households. Additionally, doubling the amount of redistribution would require using only 27.38% and 27.39% of the carbon tax revenue in scenarios one and two, respectively, to achieve a net gain for middle and low-income households.
Finally, we analyze the characteristics of vulnerable households by examining all households and those in the lowest income bracket. For all households, those with elderly members, heads of households over 65, heads of households with an education level below elementary school, one-person family, couple family, grandfamily, and three-generation family bear higher expenditure burdens. When analyzing only the lowest income bracket, households with elderly members, heads of households over 65, heads of households with higher education levels (university or above), and core families bear higher burdens than the average for the entire income bracket. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
111258014 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111258014 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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