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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 國際經營與貿易學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/156771

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/156771

Title:	State-Dependent Local Projections – the Dynamic Effects of Regime Transitions
Authors:	顏佑銘 Yen, Yu-Min;Lin, Hsin-Yi;Hsiao, Yu-Hsiang
Contributors:	國貿系
Keywords:	Democracy;economic growth;impulse responses;local projections
Date:	2025-02
Issue Date:	2025-04-30 15:03:14 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This article proposes using state-dependent local projections (SDLP) to forecast the dynamically asymmetrical effects of political regimes or policy transitions. By conditioning on the ex ante status, the SDLP method estimates first-differenced local projections that depend on the previous regime type, allowing for asymmetric regime transitions and reversals. Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that the SDLP estimator involves a smaller bias than existing local projections and performs well with small samples. We apply the proposed SDLP method to examine the effects of democratization and autocratization on economic growth. Our empirical results suggest that the accumulated impacts of democratization on economic growth are positive and increase over time, while the negative effects of autocratization are more substantial and increase over time. These findings suggest that democracy promotes economic growth, whereas reversals to autocracy have an even greater detrimental impact on growth.
Relation:	Econometric Reviews, pp.1-25
Data Type:	article
DOI 連結:	https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2025.2456520
DOI:	10.1080/07474938.2025.2456520
Appears in Collections:	[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 期刊論文

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