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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/157766
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157766


    Title: 股價突破歷史新高與未來報酬:台灣股市的實證研究
    Historical High Breakouts and Future Returns: An Empirical Study in the Taiwan Stock Market
    Authors: 李紹禎
    Lee, Shao-Chen
    Contributors: 周冠男
    Chou, Robin K.
    李紹禎
    Lee, Shao-Chen
    Keywords: 資產定價
    行為財務
    金融市場實證
    交易決策
    投資
    歷史高點
    Asset pricing
    Behavioral finance
    Empirical evidence in financial markets
    Financial decision-making
    Investments
    Historical highs
    Date: 2025
    Issue Date: 2025-07-01 14:48:41 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究以台灣股市 1983–2022 年資料為樣本,發現當股價「突破歷史高點」時,在散戶佔交易量七成以上且每日有漲跌幅限制的市場結構中,報酬會由短期過度反應轉為遲滯反應而呈現持續性的正向動能;其中,小型股(散戶比例高)、異常週轉率高的股票在 1 週至 6 個月內的動能最為強勁,而週轉率較低的股票則在 6–12 個月內維持穩定超額報酬,且此現象於每年 11 月至翌年 4 月尤為明顯,對行為財務理論與實務投資策略均具啟示。
    How does market structure affect price formation around psychological barriers? While the research has found negative returns when stocks approach historical highs in institutional-dominated markets, the effect of such price patterns in retail-dominated markets remains unexplored. We use data from Taiwan’s stock market in which individual investors account for 74% of the trading volume to examine how their composition and the market structure influence return patterns around historically high prices. We find that when stocks exceed historical highs, they trigger a shift from overreaction to underreaction. This shift yields positive returns. This effect is particularly pronounced for small-cap stocks with larger retail ownership in which investors’ level of sophistication plays a crucial role in price formation around psychological barriers. The effect varies systematically with trading volume and manifests a strong seasonality, with returns concentrated between November and April. Our findings show how the market structure affects the relationship between historical highs and future returns. This finding extends our theoretical understanding of price formation and provides practical insights for investment strategies in emerging markets.
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    Description: 博士
    國立政治大學
    財務管理學系
    105357501
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105357501
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財務管理學系] 學位論文

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