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| Title: | 糖衣與鐵拳：來自新南向政策與中美貿易戰的證據
Carrots and Sticks: Firm-Level Evidence from the New Southbound Policy and the U.S.-China Trade War |
| Authors: | 吳奕霈
Wu, Yi-Pei |
| Contributors: | 黃嘉威
吳奕霈
Wu, Yi-Pei |
| Keywords: | 新南向政策
中美貿易戰
海外投資
公司價值
財務績效
New Southbound Policy
U.S.-China Trade War
FDI
Firm Value
Financial Performance |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-07-01 14:52:40 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究旨在探討台灣企業在新南向政策推動與中美貿易戰爆發兩項重大事件之下，對新南向國家之投資行為及其經營績效是否產生顯著影響。研究資料涵蓋 2009 至 2023 年間台灣上市櫃公司之財務資訊與海外投資分布，並透過多元迴歸模型進行實證分析。模型中納入事件虛擬變數（POLICY 與 TRADE_WAR）、對新南向地區的投資比例（INVEST）以及其與事件的交乘項，分別從公司價值（Tobin’s Q）與財務績效（ROE、ROA、Net Profit Margin）兩個層面觀察企業表現的變化。實證結果顯示，兩項事件皆對企業的海外投資行為產生明顯推動作用。新南向政策期間，企業對新南向地區的投資比例顯著提升；而在中美貿易戰期間，亦可觀察到企業進行區域重組與供應鏈調整的行為。在公司價值方面，僅有中美貿易戰期間與投資行為的交乘項呈現正向且顯著效果，顯示市場傾向正面解讀企業在外部壓力下所做出的資源重組與區域調整決策；相較之下，政策誘因雖有助於提升投資意願，卻未在 Tobin’s Q 模型中反映出明顯的價值增益。至於財務績效方面，無論是來自政策誘因或外部衝擊所擴大的投資，對企業的財務績效並未帶來顯著改善，甚至在部分情況下出現負向影響。此一現象顯示，企業在拓展新市場時，仍可能面臨各種實務上的挑戰，例如投入成本高、資源整合不易、或當地營運條件尚未成熟等，使得企業即使因為事件而增加投資，但短期內卻難以反映在財務績效指標上。
This study aims to examine whether two major events—the promotion of Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy and the outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war—have significantly influenced Taiwanese enterprises’ investment behavior and operational performance in New Southbound countries. The analysis is based on financial data and overseas investment distributions of listed Taiwanese companies from 2009 to 2023, utilizing multiple regression models for empirical testing. The models incorporate event dummy variables (POLICY and TRADE_WAR), the proportion of investment in New Southbound countries (INVEST), and their interaction terms. Corporate performance is analyzed from two perspectives: firm value (Tobin’s Q) and financial performance indicators (ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin).The empirical results indicate that both events exerted a clear driving effect on firms’ overseas investment behavior. During the New Southbound Policy period, the proportion of investment in New Southbound countries increased significantly. Likewise, during the U.S.-China trade war, firms exhibited regional restructuring and supply chain adjustments. Regarding firm value, only the interaction term between investment behavior and the trade war period showed a positive and statistically significant effect, suggesting that the market positively interpreted firms’ resource reallocation and regional adjustment decisions in response to external pressure. In contrast, although policy incentives enhanced investment intention, they did not lead to clear value gains in the Tobin’s Q model. As for financial performance, increased investment—whether driven by policy incentives or external shocks—did not result in significant improvements, and in some cases even had negative effects. This suggests that firms expanding into new markets may still face various practical challenges, such as high upfront costs, difficulties in resource integration, or underdeveloped local operating conditions. Consequently, investments prompted by such events may not translate into short-term improvements in financial indicators. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
112357039 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112357039 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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