Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/157857
|
| Title: | 關於當前貨幣、產出和能源市場主要議題的三篇論文
Three Essays on the Current Major Issues in the Monetary, Output, and Energy Markets |
| Authors: | 李柏樂
Lee, Po-Le |
| Contributors: | 曹添旺
李文傑
Tsaur, Tien-Wang
Lee, Wen-Chieh
李柏樂
Lee, Po-Le |
| Keywords: | 中央銀行數位貨幣
通貨替代
新冠肺炎疫情
資源錯配
國防生產法案
機器學習
Central bank digital currency
Currency substitution
COVID-19 pandemic
Resource misallocation
Defense Production Act
Machine learning |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-07-01 15:34:02 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本論文嘗試分析近年貨幣、產出與能源市場的重要趨勢及其影響，以提供政策建議。博士論文的第二章聚焦於貨幣市場，我們建構一個動態一般均衡模型，分析中央銀行發行數位貨幣對貨幣政策與通貨替代的影響。首先，我們發現，隨著民眾持有數位貨幣的數量增加，傳統貨幣政策的效果將逐漸減弱，此時改變數位貨幣供給成長率將成為一項相對有效的貨幣政策工具。其次，國外若開發數位貨幣，確實可能導致通貨替代的風險。最後，在假設發展數位貨幣會使貨幣需求彈性增加的情況下，我們發現發行數位貨幣可以擴大貨幣政策的規模效果，從而降低通貨替代的可能性。基於以上分析，我們建議小型開放經濟體的中央銀行應考慮發行數位貨幣。博士論文的第三章針對產出市場，使用資源錯配模型分析新冠肺炎疫情對各產業資源扭曲的影響。首先，我們分析疫情期間各產業加成（markup）的變化幅度。其次，我們計算疫情前後各產業生產效率的變化，結果顯示，疫情對餐飲住宿業的影響尤為顯著。最後，我們討論補貼政策對生產效率的影響，並分析其如何促進勞動力回流，加速餐飲住宿業的復甦。博士論文的第四章聚焦於能源市場，我們利用機器學習方法預測企業的能源使用量，並將其應用於美國《國防生產法案》的政策效果分析。該政策獎勵綠色投資並提高生產效率，從而減少企業能源使用量。通過差異中之差（DiD）分析，我們量化了該政策對企業能源使用量的影響，結果發現，相較於加拿大，該政策顯著降低了美國企業的能源使用量。然而，我們同時發現，該政策也導致能源扭曲程度增加，這對產業發展產生不利影響。如何通過政策設計來降低能源扭曲，將是下一個值得深入探討的議題。
This dissertation analyzes recent trends and impacts in monetary, output, and energy markets, offering policy recommendations. Chapter 2 constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine the effects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) issuance on monetary policy and currency substitution. We find that increasing public holdings of digital currency weakens traditional monetary policy, making changes to digital currency supply growth an effective tool. Foreign issuance of digital currencies poses currency substitution risks, but increasing money demand elasticity through CBDC issuance can expand the scale effect of monetary policy and mitigate substitution risks. We recommend that central banks in small open economies issue digital currency. Chapter 3 uses a resource misallocation model to analyze COVID-19’s impact on resource distortions across industries, quantifying markup and production efficiency changes. The accommodation and food services sector was particularly affected. We also examine how subsidies improve efficiency and promote labor holding, accelerating recovery. Chapter 4 employs machine learning approaches to predict firms' energy usage and leverages these predictions to analyze the implications of the U.S. Defense Production Act (DPA). The policy incentivizes green investments and enhances efficiency, reducing U.S. firms’ energy usage compared to Canada. However, it increases energy distortions, posing challenges for industrial development. Addressing energy distortions remains a key area for further exploration. |
| Reference: | Anayi, Lena, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Phillip Bunn, Steven Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Myrto Oikonomou, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen (2021), “Labour market reallocation in the wake of Covid-19,” VoxEU. org, 13.
Auer, Raphael, Codruta Boar, Giulio Cornelli, Jon Frost, Henry Holden, and Andreas Wehrli (2021), “CBDCs beyond borders: results from a survey of central banks,” BIS papers.
Auer, Raphael, Giulio Cornelli, and Jon Frost (2020), “Rise of the central bank digital currencies: drivers, approaches and technologies,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15363.
Baker, Scott R, Robert A Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, and Constantine Yannelis (2020), “How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic,” Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 834–862.
Bang, Guri (2010), “Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?,” Energy Policy, 384, 1645–1653.
Barrdear, John and Michael Kumhof (2022), “The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 142, 104148.
Bartik, Alexander W, Marianne Bertrand, Zoe Cullen, Edward L Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton (2020), “The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(30), 17656–17666.
Beniak, Patrycja (2019), “Central bank digital currency and monetary policy: a literature review,” MPRA Paper No. 96663.
Brodeur, Abel, David Gray, Anik Islam, and Suraiya Bhuiyan (2021), “A literature review of the economics of COVID-19,” Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(4), 1007–1044.
Brunel, Claire and Arik Levinson (2013), “Measuring environmental regulatory stringency,” .
Cajner, Tomaz, Leland D Crane, Ryan A Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz (2020), “The US labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession, tech. rep.,” National Bureau of Economic Research.
Calvo, Guillermo A and Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez (1977), “A model of exchange rate determination under currency substitution and rational expectations,” Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 617–625.
Chen, Chau-Nan (1973), “Diversified currency holdings and flexible exchange rates,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(1)1, 96–111.
Chen, Chau-Nan and Tien-Wang Tsaur (1983), “Currency substitution and foreign inflation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 177–184.
Chen, Chau-Nan, Tien-Wang Tsaur, and Chein-Fu Chou (1981), “Gross substitution, Gresham’s law, and Hayek’s free currency system,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 3(4), 547–557.
Chen, Chau-Nan, Tien-Wang Tsaur, and Shun-Chieh Liu (1989), “Currency substitution, foreign inflation, and terms-of-trade dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy, 97(4), 955–964.
Chetty, Raj, John N Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner, et al. (2020), “The economic impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a new public database built using private sector data, tech. rep.,” National Bureau of Economic Research.
Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza (2022), “Central bank digital currency and monetary policy,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 142, 104150.
De Loecker, Jan, Jan Eeckhout, and Gabriel Unger (2020), “The rise of market power and the macroeconomic implications,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(2), 561–644.
De Vries, Gerdien, Bart W Terwel, Naomi Ellemers, and Dancker DL Daamen (2015), “Sustainability or profitability? How communicated motives for environmental policy affect public perceptions of corporate greenwashing,” Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 223,
142–154.
Dixon, Robert K, Elizabeth McGowan, Ganna Onysko, and Richard M Scheer (2010), “US energy conservation and efficiency policies: Challenges and opportunities,” Energy Policy, 3811, 6398–6408.
Dodge, Joel, Joel Michaels, Lenore Palladino, and Todd N. Tucker (2022), “Progressive Preemption: How the Defense Production Act Can Override Corporate Extraction, Boost Worker Power, and Expedite the Clean Energy Transition,” Roosevelt Institute, December, 9, 2022.
Dornbusch, Rudiger (1976), “Expectations and exchange rate dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1161–1176.
Eicher, Theo S and Stephen J Turnovsky (1997), “Convergence speeds and transitional dynamics in non-scale growth models,” Available at SSRN 2054998.
Foster, Lucia, John Haltiwanger, and Chad Syverson (2008), “Reallocation, firm turnover, and efficiency: selection on productivity or profitability?,” American Economic Review, 98(1), 394–425.
Galeotti, Marzio, Silvia Salini, and Elena Verdolini (2020), “Measuring environmental policy strin-gency: Approaches, validity, and impact on environmental innovation and energy efficiency,” Energy Policy, 136, 111052.
Greenspoon, Lauren R and Ryan D Class (2020), “Defending the producers: examining product liability protection for compelled manufacturing under the defense production act,” Def. Counsel J. 87, 1.
Griffoli, Mr Tommaso Mancini, Mr Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Mr Itai Agur, Mr Anil Ari, Mr John Kiff, Ms Adina Popescu, and Ms Celine Rochon (2018), “Casting light on central bank digital currencies,” International Monetary Fund.
Guerrieri, Veronica, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub, and Iv´an Werning (2022), “Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages?,” American Economic Review, 112(5), 1437–74.
Hayashi, Fumio (1982), “Tobin’s marginal q and average q: A neoclassical interpretation,” Econometrica, 50, 213–224.
Hoffman, Kenneth C and Dale W Jorgenson (1977), “Economic and technological models for evaluation of energy policy,” The Bell Journal of Economics, 444–466.
Hopenhayn, Hugo and Richard Rogerson (1993), “Job turnover and policy evaluation: A general equilibrium analysis,” Journal of Political Economy, 101(5), 915–938.
Horschig, Thomas and Daniela Thr¨an (2017), “Are decisions well supported for the energy transition? A review on modeling approaches for renewable energy policy evaluation,” Energy, Sustainability and Society, 7, 1–14.
Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Peter J Klenow (2009), “Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(4), 1403–1448.
Jiang, Peiyun (2020), “Research on the Influence of Government Intervention on Energy Intensity,” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 563, (1), IOP Publishing, 012016.
Jin, Yousen, He Li, and Juan Lu (2024), “How does energy policy uncertainty perception affect corporate greenwashing behaviors? Evidence from China’s energy companies,” Energy, 306, 132403.
Kumhof, Michael and Clare Noone (2018), “Central bank digital currencies-design principles and balance sheet implications,” Bank of England Working Paper No. 725.
Lai, Ching-Chong and Chi-Ting Chin (2013), “Monetary rules and endogenous growth in an open economy,” Macroeconomic Dynamics, 17(2), 431–463.
Lee, Shun-Chung and Li-Hsing Shih (2010), “Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model—The case of Taiwan,” Energy Economics, 32, S67–S78.
Liviatan, Nissan (1981), “Monetary expansion and real exchange rate dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy, 89(6), 1218–1227.
Manuel, Timothy and Terri L. Herron (2020), “An ethical perspective of business CSR and the COVID-19 pandemic,” Society and Business Review, 15(3), 235–253.
McKinnon, Ronald I (1982), “Currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard,” American Economic Review, 72(3), 320–333.
Miles, Marc A (1978), “Currency substitution, flexible exchange rates, and monetary independence,” American Economic Review, 68(3)3, 428–436.
Minesso, Massimo Ferrari, Arnaud Mehl, and Livio Stracca (2022), “Central bank digital currency in an open economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 127, 54–68.
Mongey, Simon, Laura Pilossoph, and Alexander Weinberg (2021), “Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?,” Journal of Economic Inequality, 19, 509–526.
Olley, G Steven and Ariel Pakes (1996), “The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry,” Econometrica, 64(6), 1263–1297.
Park, Won-Am (1987), “Crawling PEG, inflation hedges, and exchange rate dynamics,” Journal of International Economics, 23(1), 131–150.
Restuccia, Diego and Richard Rogerson (2017), “The causes and costs of misallocation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(3), 151–174.
Ruple, John C., Jamie Pleune, and Erik Heiny (2022), “Evidence-based recommendations for improving National Environmental Policy Act implementation,” Colum. J. Env’t L. 47, 273.
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X and Robert J. Barro (1995), “Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth, tech. rep.,” Center Discussion Paper.
Sidrauski, Miguel (1967), “Rational choice and patterns of growth in a monetary economy,” American Economic Review, 57(2), 534–544.
Stockman, Alan C (1981), “Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 8(3), 387–393.
Suen, Ming-Hon and Chong K Yip (2005), “Superneutrality, indeterminacy and endogenous growth,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 27(4), 579–595.
Tobin, James (1969), “A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(1), 15–29.
Tsaur, Jen-Ruey and Tien-Wang Tsaur (2024), “Currency Substitution, Trade Elasticities, Real Exchange Rate Dynamics, and Monetary Independence,” Taiwan Economic Review, forthcoming.
Turnovsky, Stephen J (1996), “Optimal tax, debt, and expenditure policies in a growing economy,” Journal of Public Economics, 60(1), 21–44.
Turnovsky, Stephen J (2000), “Growth in an open economy: some recent developments,” National Bank of Belgium Working Paper, 5.
Turnovsky, Stephen J (2002), “Intertemporal and intratemporal substitution, and the speed of convergence in the neoclassical growth model,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 269-10, 1765–1785.
Uribe, Martın (1999), “Comparing the welfare costs and initial dynamics of alternative inflation stabilization policies,” Journal of Development Economics, 59(2), 295–318.
Wang, Ping and Chong K Yip (1992), “Alternative approaches to money and growth,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 24(4), 553–562.
Wang, Yun, Xiaohua Sun, and Xu Guo (2019), “Environmental regulation and green productivity growth: Empirical evidence on the Porter Hypothesis from OECD industrial sectors,” Energy Policy, 132, 611– 619.
Wieczorek-Kosmala, Monika, Dorota Marquardt, and Jaros law Kurpanik (2021), “Drivers of sustainable performance in European energy sector,” Energies, 1421, 7055.
Zhang, Junxi (2000), “Inflation and growth: pecuniary transactions costs and qualitative equivalence,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32(1), 1–12. |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
108258501 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258501 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 850101.pdf | | 2447Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
