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    题名: 不確定衝擊與恆久性及臨時性勞動之替代性
    Uncertainty Shocks and Substitutability between Permanent and Temporary Labor
    作者: 賴廷緯
    贡献者: 經濟系
    关键词: 不確定性;臨時性與恆久性就業循環性共移現象;名目僵固性;勞動調整成本
    Uncertainty;Cyclical Movements of Temporary and Permanent Employment;Nominal Rigidities;Labor Adjustment Costs
    日期: 2022-03
    上传时间: 2025-07-16 11:13:56 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在本計畫中，我們首先提出實證證據顯示臨時性就業和恆久性就業對於不確定性衝擊都具有負向的反應。有趣的是，兩者的衝擊反應函數顯示幾項不同的特徵：一方面，前者對於不確定性的衝擊的反應更為立即與直接而後者的反應則呈現遲滯的現象；另一方面，不確定性衝擊在發生地當期，對於臨時性就業相對於恆久性就業造成更劇烈的效果。為了進一步分析兩類勞動需求受到不確定衝擊的不對稱影響，我們加入考慮兩類受雇人員的相對工資率，我們發現臨時性相對於恆久性雇員的工資比率對於不確定性衝擊有正向的反應。為了解釋以上的發現，我們在一個動態隨機一般均衡模型中加入不同的機制與管道，並透過敏感度和逆向事實的量化分析證明這些管道對於解釋主要的總體經濟變數間的循環性共移現象具有相當程度的重要性。
    In this project, we first provide empirical evidence showing that both temporary employment and permanent employment have negative responses to uncertainty shocks. More interestingly, the two series of impulse responses display several distinctive patterns. on the one hand, the former exhibits a more direct response while the later experiences a more persistent response to uncertainty shocks. On the other hand, a positive uncertainty shock can generate a more dramatic decline in temporary employment when the shock hits. To further explore relative changes in labor demand caused by uncertainty shocks, we exploit the ratio of hourly wage rate of temporary employees to that of permanent ones. The ratio of relative wages exhibits a mildly positive response to the shocks. To account for these findings, we then incorporate a variety of channels into a DSGE model. We show that these channels can be potentially important to generate the cyclical comovements among main macroeconomic variables.
    關聯: 科技部, MOST108-2410-H004-057-MY2, 108.08-110.07
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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