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| 題名: | 沉沒成本謬誤,永續政策與不完全訊息對廠商採用破壞性綠色創新決策之影響
The Effects of Sunk Cost Fallacy, Sustainable Regulations and Incomplete Information on Firms’ Adoption Decisions for Disruptive Green Innovation |
| 作者: | 余康善
Yu, Kang-Shan |
| 貢獻者: | 何靜嫺
余康善
Yu, Kang-Shan |
| 關鍵詞: | 沉沒成本
訊號理論
私人資訊
寡占競爭
Sunk cost
Signaling
Private information
Oligopoly compitition |
| 日期: | 2025 |
| 上傳時間: | 2025-08-04 12:49:12 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本研究建立數個理論架構，以探討沉沒成本謬誤是如何延遲永續技術的採用。儘管許多實證文獻已經記錄了此一行為偏誤，但針對該主題的理論分析仍相當少。本文填補了此一空缺，分析政府管制、沉沒成本謬誤與私人資訊在獨占與寡占市場中的交互作用。本研究提出了在碳稅（carbon tax）與碳權交易（cap-and-trade）的制度下，沉沒成本謬誤會如何影響永續技術的採用。接著我們進一步分析了在寡占市場中，當存在私人資訊時，訊號理論（signaling）與跨期策略行為會如何影響企業的採用門檻。
研究發現：沉沒成本謬誤與政府政策之間存在抵換關係，政策工具有能力影響技術採用的門檻。具體而言，在碳稅制度下的採用門檻低於碳權交易制度（cap-and-trade）。在寡占市場中，採用的臨界點亦低於獨占市場。此外，當考量到訊號理論（signaling）與世代間影響時，企業受到沉沒成本謬誤影響的程度會更加明顯。本研究提出，心理偏誤會如何影響企業的投資決策，並在均衡中產生特定的技術採用路徑。
This study develops a theoretical framework to examine how sunk cost fallacy can delay the adoption of sustainable technologies. While many empirical studies have documented this behavioral bias, theoretical analyses on this subject remain scarce. Our paper bridges the gap by analyzing the interaction between government regulation, sunk cost fallacy and private information in monopoly and oligopoly market. This study presents a theoretical model illustrating how sunk cost fallacy affects the adoption of sustainable technologies under carbon tax and cap-and-trade regimes. We further analyze an oligopoly case with private information, where signaling and intertemporal strategic behavior shape firms’ adoption thresholds. We found that There exists a trade-off between the sunk cost fallacy and government regulation, policy instruments can influence the adoption threshold. Specifically, the adoption threshold is lower under a carbon tax regime compared to a cap-and-trade system. In the oligopoly, the cutoff point is lower than in the monopoly. Moreover, when signaling and intergenerational effects are taken into account, the degree of sunk cost fallacy becomes more pronounced. The analysis highlights how psychological biases distort forward-looking incentives and generate adoption paths in equilibrium. |
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| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
111258043 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111258043 |
| 資料類型: | thesis |
| 顯示於類別: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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