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| Title: | 台灣財政支出之再驗證：以華格納法則及財政永續性為核心
Revisiting Taiwan’s Fiscal Expenditure: Evidence from Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Sustainability |
| Authors: | 廖昰軒
Liao, Shih-Syuan |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
Chen, Joe
廖昰軒
Liao, Shih-Syuan |
| Keywords: | 邊界共整合檢定
華格納法則
財政永續性
ARDL-ECM
Bounds test
Wagner’s Law
Fiscal sustainability
ARDL-ECM |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-08-04 14:24:23 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 我國《預算法》係採取基金制，將預算區分為「普通基金」及「特種基金」二者，惟我國目前統計資料庫及過往學術研究對於政府支出之定義範圍僅限於普通基金，以致於未能充分衡量政府規模，而得出華格納法則於我國不成立之結論。
因此，本研究將引入國際貨幣組織於《政府財政統計手冊》的概念，並從公法角度將我國政府部門區分為：僅包括普通基金之「狹義政府部門」、普通基金加計非營業特種基金之「一般性政府部門」、普通基金加計全體特種基金之「公共部門」三者後，並依此定義重新劃分民國64年至112年間資料之政府收支資料。再藉由自我迴歸分配遞延模型 (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model；ARDL) 及邊界共整合檢定 (Bounds Test)，對重分後之政府支出及人均GDP進行檢定，以分析我國是否成立華格納法則﹔此外，本研究並檢定重分後政府收支間之長期關係，以檢定我國是否符合財政永續性的要求。實證結果發現：首先，在一般性政府部門定義下的政府支出將成立華格納法則；其次，於全樣本期間 (1975年至2023年)，不同定義下的政府收支雖可視為符合財政永續性；但部分樣本期間 (1989年至2023年)，狹義政府部門及一般性政府部門之財政支出擴張速度已異於財政收入成長速度，財政永續性已有疑慮。
本研究結論顯示，我國政府統計資料數據庫及過往研究對於政府支出定義過於狹隘，以致於未能忠實衡量政府支出，且已有政府支出藏匿於特種基金中之現象；而華格納法則成立代表長期政府支出已有膨脹趨勢，若政府稅收未對應成長，將發生財政永續性的疑慮，因此華格納法則可作為財政永續性之觀察指標。
Taiwan’s Budget Act adopts a fund-based budgeting system, under which government budgets are categorized into two types: the General Fund and the Special Fund. However, existing statistical databases and prior academic research in Taiwan have generally defined government expenditure narrowly, focusing solely on the General Fund. As a result, the scale of government activity has been systematically underestimated, leading some studies to conclude that Wagner’s Law does not hold in the Taiwanese context.
To address this limitation, this study introduces the institutional framework provided in the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) by the International Monetary Fund and reclassifies Taiwan’s government sectors from a public law perspective into three categories: (1) the “narrow government sector,” which includes only the General Fund; (2) the “general government sector,” which includes the General Fund and non-operating Special Funds; and (3) the “public sector,” which encompasses both the General Fund and all types of Special Funds. Based on these definitions, government revenue and expenditure data from 1975 to 2023 are reorganized.
Subsequently, this study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Bounds Testing approach to examine the existence of Wagner’s Law by testing the long-run relationship between the redefined government expenditures and real GDP per capita. Furthermore, it evaluates the fiscal sustainability of Taiwan by testing the cointegration between government revenues and expenditures under different sectoral definitions.
The empirical findings are as follows. First, under the definition of the general government sector, the empirical evidence supports the validity of Wagner’s Law in Taiwan. Second, during the full sample period (1975–2023), fiscal sustainability appears to hold across all definitions of government sectors. However, in the sub-sample period (1989–2023), under both narrow and broad definitions of government, the rate of expenditure growth differs from that of revenue growth, suggesting potential concerns regarding fiscal sustainability.
These results indicate that prior research and government statistical systems in Taiwan have adopted an overly restrictive definition of public expenditure, thereby failing to accurately capture the full scope of government activities. The presence of off-budget expenditures, particularly within Special Funds, further compounds this issue. The confirmation of Wagner’s Law implies a structural tendency for long-run government expenditure expansion. If tax revenues fail to grow correspondingly, fiscal sustainability risks may emerge. Therefore, Wagner’s Law may serve as a valuable indicator for assessing long-term fiscal sustainability. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
112255033 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112255033 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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