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    Title: 貿易期望理論在中美經濟上的適用性 : 半導體的案例研究與貿易期望理論的關係
    Applicability of Trade Expectation Theory on Sino-American Economics Case Study of Semiconductors in Relation to Trade Expectation Theory
    Authors: 紀凱逸
    Jeter, Jared Owen
    Contributors: 盧業中
    Lu, Yeh-Chung
    紀凱逸
    Jeter, Jared Owen
    Keywords: 貿易預期理論
    半導體供應鏈
    貿易依賴理論
    戴爾·柯普蘭
    經濟脫鉤
    經濟相互依賴
    Trade Expectation Theory
    Semiconductor Supply Chains
    Trade Dependency Theory
    Dale Copeland
    Economic Decoupling
    Economic Interdependence
    Date: 2025
    Issue Date: 2025-08-04 14:37:45 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本論文旨在探討戴爾·柯普蘭 所提出之「貿易預期理論 對中美貿易關係之適用性。研究目的在於證明該理論相較於「貿易依賴理論,不僅更能解釋當前大國行為,亦具有作為預測未來事件之分析模型之潛力。
    本研究將採用觀察性資料與歷史資料,試圖建立一致性的分析模式,並應用於當前中美貿易衝突情境中,以驗證二者間之相關性。此外,論文亦將參考目前從事相關領域實地研究之專家學者之觀點與意見,以增強研究之學術深度與實證基礎。

    本研究將以跨太平洋半導體產業為個案分析對象,原因在於該產業為當今全球最具關鍵性的戰略性商業資源之一。本論文之主要假設為:隨著各方對穩定貿易體系之信心逐漸下滑,並且雙邊敵意行動日益升高,全球貿易將逐步走向類似冷戰時期地緣政治格局之區域性封閉體系。
    透過本研究所獲得之統計與觀察性結果顯示,中美間之地緣經濟貿易模式確實呈現出與貿易預期理論所主張之論點相符之趨勢,足以佐證其理論之解釋力與預測效用。
    This thesis studies the applicability of Dale Copeland’s Trade Expectation Theory on the Sino-American trading relationship. The objective of this thesis prove that Trade Expectation Theory is not only more superior to Trade Dependency Theory in explaining the recent actions of the great powers but also can be used to provide a predictive model for upcoming events. This study will employ observational and historical data to establish a consistent pattern that can be applies to the current conflict in order to prove correlation. This paper will also employ expert opinions from those currently engaged with in-field research. This thesis will be using a case study on the trans-Pacific semiconductor production industry as this resource is one of if not the most critical commercial good in the world today. The primary hypothesis posits that as confidence in stable trade lines decline and as increasingly hostile escalations occur on both sides, we will begin to see the development of gradually isolated trading spheres reminiscent of cold war era geopolitics. The statistical and observational results of this study indicate that there is consistent pattern of geoeconomic trade patterns in line with the assertions made by trade expectation theory.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
    112862009
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112862009
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文

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