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| Title: | 超越歷史因素： 解釋近年來日韓之間的衝突與合作
Beyond Historical Factors: Explaining the Dynamics of Contemporary Conflicts and Cooperation Between Japan and South Korea |
| Authors: | 黃冠豪
Huang, Kuan-Hao |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu
黃冠豪
Huang, Kuan-Hao |
| Keywords: | 日韓關係
歷史問題
民族主義
國際結構
國內政治
Japan-South Korea relations
Historical disputes
Nationalism
International structure
Domestic politics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-09-01 16:34:30 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文旨在為近年來韓國與日本在合作與衝突之間反覆變化的原因提供一個系統性的解釋。傳統單獨從「國際結構因素」或「國內政治因素」出發的論點，難以充分地解釋日韓關係為何會呈現反覆地高低波動的特殊現象。對此，本文提出一個結合「國際結構」變數與「國內政治」變數的解釋框架，強調這兩個層次的因素如何影響日韓關係的變化。本文以2012年獨島／竹島衝突、2015年慰安婦協議、2016年《日韓軍事情報保護協定》與2019年貿易爭端等四個兩國關係轉變的重要事件作為主要分析案例。有鑒於日本的對韓政策因為自民黨長期執政所以相對穩定，因此本文主要聚焦在韓國的對日政策變化。本文認為，由於兩國在國際層面上面臨相同來自中國、北韓的安全壓力與美國的聯盟壓力，所以雙方不論關係如何處於低點，都會有最低限度的合作，且衝突難以持續升高，並且衝突的累積也將成為促使兩國在未來進一步合作的誘因。在國內層面，由於歷史因素所導致的民族主義的影響，也限制了韓國對日本進一步的合作，並且韓國對日合作的本身也因為壓抑了韓國民族主義的情緒，反而成為未來韓日衝突的遠因。以這個「國際結構決定下限、國內政治因素決定上限」的論點為基礎，本文提出三個假設，進一步指出「事件發生前的雙邊關係」與「韓國總統支持度的變化」，是影響雙方在事件發生當下將會選擇合作或衝突的關鍵條件。
This paper seeks to provide a systematic explanation of the recurring swings between conflict and cooperation in South Korea–Japan relations in recent years. Existing explanations that focus solely on either international structures or domestic politics cannot perfectly explain the distinctive pattern of oscillation in this bilateral relationship. Therefore, this paper develops a framework that combines international and domestic variables and explains how the two levels influence shifts in the bilateral relationship. The study reviews four key cases: the 2012 Dokdo/Takeshima dispute, the 2015 Comfort Women Agreement, the 2016 General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), and the 2019 trade dispute. Because Japan’s policy toward Korea has remained relatively stable under the long-standing dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party, the study concentrates primarily on changes in South Korea’s policy toward Japan. The study argues that international pressures, originating from China and North Korea as common security threats, and from the United States as alliance pressure, establish a persistent “international floor” for cooperation. However, domestic nationalism, rooted in historical resentments, imposes a “domestic ceiling” on cooperation. Cooperation may temporarily suppress nationalist sentiment, but it often becomes the reason for the next conflict. Based on this “international floor and domestic ceiling” model, the study proposes three hypotheses and identifies two crucial conditions that determine whether Korea and Japan choose cooperation or conflict: the state of bilateral relations preceding a crucial event and fluctuations in South Korean presidential approval ratings. |
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Mattes, M., Leeds, B. A., & Carroll, R. 2015. “Leadership Turnover and Foreign Policy Change: Societal Interests, Domestic Institutions, and Voting in the United Nations.” International Studies Quarterly 59 (2): 280-290.
Michishita, Narushige. 2014. “Changing Security Relationship between Japan and South Korea: Frictions and Hopes.” Asia-Pacific Review. 21(2): 19-32.
Miki, Rieko & Nagasawa, Tsuyoshi. 2019. “Trump ups security demands on Japan and South Korea.” Nikkei Asia. August 8. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Trump-ups-security-demands-on-Japan-and-South-Korea. (Accessed on 2024/11/7).
Minor, M. 1985. “Decision Models and Japanese Foreign Policy Decision Making.” Asian Survey. 25(12): 1229-1241.
Miyagi, Y. 2009. “Foreign Policy Making Under Koizumi: Norms and Japan’s Role in the 2003 Iraq War.” Foreign Policy Analysis. 5(4): 349-366.
New York Times. 2015. “Japan’s Apologies for World War II.” August 14. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/08/13/world/asia/japan-ww2-shinzo-abe.html. (Accessed on 2024/11/7).
Ostermeyer, Billy. 2021. “U.S. arms sales to South Korea”. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Panda, Ankit. 2014. “No, the US Won’t Back South Korea Against Japan on Dokdo.” The Diplomat. May 2.
Park, C. H. 2008. “Cooperation Coupled with Conflicts: Korea–Japan Relations in the Post-Cold War Era,” Asia-Pacific Review, 15(2): 13-35.
Park, C. H. 2019. “Strategic Estrangement Between South Korea and Japan as a Barrier to Trilateral Cooperation,” Atlantic Council, 1-12.
Rathbun, Brian C, Kertzer, Joshua D., Reifler, Jason, Goren, Paul & Scotto, Thomas J. 2016. “Taking Foreign Policy Personally: Personal Values and Foreign Policy Attitudes,” International Studies Quarterly 60(1): 124-137.
Ripsman, N. M. 2009. “Neoclassical realism and domestic interest groups.” In S. E. Lobell, N. M. Ripsman, & J. W. Taliaferro (Eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy. pp. 170-193. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Roh, Joori. 2019. “From beer to pens, South Koreans boycott Japanese brands as diplomatic row intensifies.” Reuters. July 20. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-japan-laborers-boycott/from-beer-to-pens-south-koreans-boycott-japanese-brands-as-diplomatic-row-intensifies-idUSKCN1UE095/. (Accessed on 2025/7/29).
Rozman, G. 2002. “Japan and Korea: should the US be worried about their new spat in 2001?” The Pacific Review, 15(1): 1-28.
Rozman, Gilbert & Lee, Shin-wha. 2006. “Unraveling the Japan-South Korea ‘Virtual Alliance’: Populism and Historical Revisionism in the Face of Conflicting Regional Strategies.” Asian Survey. 46(5): 761-784.
Russel, Daniel R. 2014. “Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliances,” Testimony Before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Washington, DC. March 4. https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2014/03/222903.htm. (Accessed on 2025/7/29).
Sakaki, Alexandra & Junya, Nishino. (2018). “Japan's South Korea predicament.” International Affairs, 94(4): 735-754.
Schreurs, M.A.A. (2002). “Democratic Transition and Environmental Civil Society: Japan and South Korea Compared.” The Good Society. 11(2): 57-64.
Seo, J, 2021. “Diagnosing Korea–Japan relations through thick description: revisiting the national identity formation process.” Third World Quarterly. 45(6): 1106-1121.
Smith, Alastair. 2016. “Leader Turnover, Institutions, and Voting at the UN General Assembly.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 60 (1): 143-163.
Smith, Josh. 2022. “S. Korea urges improved ties with Japan on freedom anniversary.” Reuters. August 15. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/commemorating-liberation-japan-skoreas-yoon-calls-improved-ties-2022-08-15/. (Accessed on 2024/11/7)
Sneider, Daniel. 2016. “Advancing U.S.-Japan-ROK Trilateral Cooperation. A U.S. Perspective.” The National Bureau of Asian Research. March 30. https://www.nbr.org/publication/advancing-u-s-japan-rok-trilateral-cooperation-a-u-s-perspective-brief/?utm_source=chatgpt.com#footnote2. (Accessed on 2025/7/27).
Snyder, Scott A. 2012. “South Korea’s Small Think With Japan.” Council on Foreign Relations. August 15. https://www.cfr.org/blog/south-koreas-small-think-japan.
Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. 2000. “Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited.” International Security 25(3): 128-161.
Tamaki, Taku, 2020. “It Takes Two to Tango: The Difficult Japan–South Korea Relations as Clash of Realities.” Japanese Journal of Political Science. 21(1): 1-18.
Turcsanyi, Richard Q. & Song, Esther E. 2022. “South Koreans Have the World’s Most Negative Views of China. Why? The explanation goes well beyond the oft-mentioned THAAD dispute,” The Diplomat. December 24. https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/south-koreans-have-the-worlds-most-negative-views-of-china-why/. (Accessed on 2025/7/29).
Watanabe, A. 1978. “Foreign Policy Making, Japanese Style.” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-). 54(1): 75-88.
Wiegand, K. E., & Lee, S. 2024. “Walking a Fine Line: US Involvement in Bilateral Tensions between South Korea and Japan.” Journal of East Asian Studies 24(3): 386-407.
Wiegand, Krista. 2015. “The South Korean–Japanese security relationship and the Dokdo/Takeshima islets dispute,” The Pacific Review. 28(3): 347-366.
Wu, Cathy, Licht, Amanda A., & Wolford, Scott. 2021. “Same as the Old Boss? Domestic Politics and the Turnover Trap,” International Studies Quarterly 65(1): 173-183.
Yangmo, KU. 2019. “Privatized Foreign Policy? Explaining the Park Geun-hye Administration’s Decision-making Process.” Korea Journal, 59(1): 106-134.
Yokota, Yusuke, Mizorogi, Takuya & Sahori, Marie. 2019. “58% in Japan support export curbs on South Korea: Nikkei survey.” Nikkei Asia. July 29. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-South-Korea-rift/58-in-Japan-support-export-curbs-on-South-Korea-Nikkei-survey. (Accessed on 2025/7/29).
Yoo, Cheong-mo. 2019. “Over half of Koreans support end of GSOMIA with Japan: poll.” Yonhap news. August 26. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190826005300315. (Accessed on 2025/7/29).
三、日文部分
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), 2015.〈政治意識月例調查〉, https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/yoron/political/2015.html#pageTop. 查閱時間：2025/5/16。
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), 2016.〈政治意識月例調查〉, https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2016.html. 查閱時間：2025/5/16。
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), 2017.〈政治意識月例調查〉, https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2017.html. 查閱時間：2025/5/16。
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), 2018.〈政治意識月例調查〉, https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2018.html. 查閱時間：2025/5/16。
NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), 2019.〈政治意識月例調查〉, https://www.nhk.or.jp/bunken/research/yoron/political/2019.html. 查閱時間：2025/5/16。
外務省, 2021.〈アジア女性基金による事業の概要〉, March 3. https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/taisen/asia_jk_genjyo.html. 亞洲婦女基金會計畫概述，查閱時間：2025/5/12。
古垣弘人, 2017.〈安倍内閣の支持率下落 危険水域？〉,《NHK》, July 27. https://www.nhk.or.jp/politics/articles/feature/3932.html. 安倍內閣支持率下滑，進入危險水域？查閱時間：2025/5/16。
外務省, 1993.〈慰安婦関係調査結果発表に関する 河野内閣官房長官談話〉, August 8. https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/taisen/kono.html. 關於慰安婦相關調查結果發表 河野內閣官房長官談話，查閱時間：2025/5/5。
外務省, 1998.〈日韓共同宣言-21世紀に向けた新たな日韓パートナーシップ-〉, October 8. https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/a_o/na/kr/page1_001262.html. 日韓聯合宣言—面向21世紀的新型日韓夥伴關係，查閱時間：2025/5/12。
外務省, 2002.〈日韓外相会談及び金大中大統領表敬（概要）〉, November 11. https://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/8671078/www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/g_kawaguchi/korea_0211/gh.html. 日韓外相會談及拜會金大中總統（概要），查閱時間：2024/11/7。
外務省, 2016.〈日韓秘密軍事情報保護協定の署名〉, November 23. https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/release/press4_003950.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com. 日韓簽署《軍事機密保護協定》，查閱時間：2025/5/12。
日本経済新聞, 2023.〈河野談話「内閣の意思」 慰安婦「強制」宮沢首相も了解〉, December 12. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA270BH0X21C23A2000000/. 河野談話是「內閣的意思」慰安婦「被強制」宮澤首相也知情，查閱時間：2025/5/5。
四、韓文部分
강병철. 2016. “<박근혜 정부 3년> 지지율 파노라마…40%대 지지율 고수”연합뉴스. February 22. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20160221030100001. 《〈朴槿惠政府三年〉支持率變化全圖──穩守40％支持率》，查閱時間：2025/4/20
경수현, 박상현. 2025. “[이재명 당선 확실] 일본 전문가들 "한일관계, 협력이 서로에 이익"” 연합뉴스. June 4. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20250602000800073. 【李在明當選已成定局】日專家：“韓日關係、合作互利”，查閱時間：2025/6/9。
국가기록원. 2017. “대일 경제협력” https://www.archives.go.kr/next/newsearch/listSubjectDescription.do?id=010518&pageFlag=C&sitePage=1-2-2. 對日經濟合作.
김동현. 2021. “외교부 "정상적 외교소통은 이제 일본 몫"…대화 의지 재차 강조”연합뉴스. March 2. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20210302154700504. 外交部：「正常的外交溝通現在是日方的責任」…重申對話意願，查閱時間：2025/3/28。
김민지. 2023. “2030 한일관계 인식 조사 결과.” 연합뉴스. February 7. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/GYH20230227001000044. 2030韓日關係認知調查結果，查閱時間：2024/11/7。
김소연. 2024. “정부, 새 한·일 선언 추진…“과거 모두 넘는 미래지향” 강조” 한겨레신문. March 13. https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/international/japan/1132071.html. 政府推動韓日新宣言，強調「面向未來，超越過去」，查閱時間：2025/3/17。
김종우, 이승우, 안용수, 2011. “한일정상회담서 위안부 첫 본격 쟁점화(종합)” 연합뉴스. December 18. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20111218014451001. 韓日首腦會談中首次將慰安婦問題作為重要議題提出（綜合），查閱時間：2025/3/26。
김효정. 2011. “`위안부 첫 공개증언' 20년…日 묵묵부답” 연합뉴스. August 12. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20110811174900004. “慰安婦首次公開證言”20年… 日本沈默不答，查閱時間：2025/5/5。
노효동. 2015. “美국무부 당국자 "한일관계 새 장…TPP 만큼 중대한 합의"” 연합뉴스. December 29. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20151229008400071. 美國國務院官員：韓日關係的新篇章…“如同TPP一樣重要的協議”，查閱時間：2025/7/26。
대통령 기록관.2019. ”대통령 이야기 제17대 이명박” https://www.pa.go.kr/online_contents/president/president17.jsp. 總統故事：第17任總統李明博。
대통령 기록관.2019. ”대통령 이야기 제18대 박근혜” https://www.pa.go.kr/online_contents/president/president18.jsp. 總統故事：第18任總統朴槿惠。
동아시아연구원(EAI) 2009. “[여론브리핑 67-1호] 국정지지율 분석 : MB 지지 44.1%, 2009년 상승세로 마감”. https://www.eai.or.kr/new/ko/project/view.asp?code=48&intSeq=13017&board=kor_issuebriefing&keyword_option=&keyword=&more=. 【民意簡報第67-1期】國民支持率分析：MB(李明博)支持率44.1%，2009年呈上升趨勢。
동아시아연구원. 2024. “2024 EAI 동아시아 인식조사: 일본편.” September 19. https://www.eai.or.kr/m/research_view.asp?intSeq=22666&code=17&menu=program. 2024EAI東亞認知調查：日本篇，查閱時間：2025/1/17。
동아일보. 2023. “日, 한국 ‘화이트리스트’ 복귀시켜…4년만에 수출규제 다 풀렸다” Julu 21. https://www.donga.com/news/Inter/article/all/20230721/120346742/1. 日本恢復韓國「白名單」…解除四年來的出口限制全部解除。
류현성. 2014. “유엔 인권이사회 기조연설 하는 윤병세 장관” 연합뉴스. March 5. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/PYH20140305121100088. 尹炳世部長於聯合國人權理事會發表主題演講，查閱時間：2025/3/27。
박세진. 2019. “日언론 "오래 못 갔던 한국 불매운동, 이번엔 이례적 장기화"”연합뉴스. July 30. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20190730081000073?utm_source=chatgpt.com. 日本媒體：「以往撐不久的韓國抵制日貨運動，這次卻異常地持續了很久」，查閱時間：2025/5/12。
백기철. 2005. “노대통령 “일본과 외교전쟁도 불사하겠다”” 한겨레신문 March 23. http://xn--hani-9d0i37d.co.kr/arti/politics/politics_general/20497.html. 盧總統：與日本展開外交戰也在所不惜，查閱時間：2025/3/18。
소환욱. 2023. “[여론조사] 윤 대통령 '대일 외교' 부정평가 59.7%.” SBS news. April 11. https://news.sbs.co.kr//news/endPage.do?newsId=N1007150202. [民意調查] 尹總統 「對日外交」負評59.7%，查閱時間2025/1/17。
심인성. 2016. “美국방부 "한일 군사정보협정, 北위협속 양국 협력 강화에 기여"” 연합뉴스. November 15. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20161115011700071. 美國國防部：「韓日軍事情報協定有助於強化處在北韓威脅中的兩國合作」，查閱時間：2025/7/25。
심지우. 2017.” [이슈 모아Zoom] 역대 대통령 지지율”조선일보. April 6. https://www.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/11/02/2016110201177.html. 【議題聚焦Zoom】歷屆總統支持率，查閱時間：2025/4/24。
연합뉴스. 2016. “<개성공단 중단> 개성공단 가동 전면중단”. February 10. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/PYH20160210090100013. <中斷開城工業園區> 開城工業園區全面中斷運營，查閱時間：2025/7/24。
오동룡. 2016. “일본은 꽃놀이패에 불과, 아쉬운 쪽은 한국이란 사실 인식해야”월간조선. December. https://monthly.chosun.com/client/news/viw.asp?ctcd=&nNewsNumb=201612100040&utm_source=chatgpt.com. 日本只不過是手握好牌的一方，應該認清事實：真正感到遺憾的是韓國，查閱時間：2025/5/11。
외교부. 2009.“2008년도 한일관계 주요일지” https://jpn-yokohama.mofa.go.kr/jp-ko/brd/m_1061/view.do?seq=684365&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp=&multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd=&company_nm=. 2008年韓日關係主要年表.
외교부. 2012. “독도관련 일본 정부의 발표에 대한 외교부 대변인 논평” https://www.mofa.go.kr/www/brd/m_4080/view.do?seq=343353&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp=&multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd=&company_nm=&pitem=10. 外交部發言人對日本政府關於獨島聲明的評論.
외교부. 2014. “한일관계 주요일지(14.5월)” https://jpn-yokohama.mofa.go.kr/jp-ko/brd/m_1061/view.do?seq=1083905&page=10. 2014年5月韓日關係主要年表.
외교부. 2018. “한·일 일본군 위안부 피해자 문제 합의 검토 태스크포스 검토 결과 보고서 발표”. https://jpn-yokohama.mofa.go.kr/jp-ko/brd/m_1059/view.do?seq=1325769&page=69. 韓日慰安婦受害者問題協議審查工作小組發布結果
우승지. 2003. “냉전 시기 한국-일본 협력의 퍼즐: 불개입가설 대 개입-연합정치가설.” 한국정치학회보. 37(3): 129-150. 冷戰時期韓日合作之謎：不介入假說與介入—聯合政治假說。
윤석이. 2017. “'위안부 합의' 재협상 가능할까…한일 관계 험로 예고” 연합뉴스. May 12. https://www.yna.co.kr/amp/view/MYH20170512009300038. 慰安婦協議是否可能再協商？預告韓日關係的險路，查閱時間：2025/3/27。
윤정호. 2016. ” "오바마가 일본에 위안부 합의 물밑 압박했다"” 조선일보. January 7. https://www.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/01/07/2016010700195.html. 歐巴馬私下向施壓日本慰安婦協議，查閱時間：2025/7/26。
은현탁. 2022. “역대 대통령 5년 평균 지지율 문재인, 김대중, 박근혜, 김영삼 순” 대전일보. April 29. https://www.daejonilbo.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=2002478. 歷代總統5年平均支持度，依序為文在寅、金大中、朴槿惠、金泳三。
이귀원. 2016. “윤병세, 유엔인권이사회서 軍위안부 언급 안했다” 연합뉴스. March 3. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20160303000800014?site=mapping_related. 尹炳世在聯合國人權理事會未提及慰安婦議題，查閱時間：2025/3/27。
이근평. 2019. “'지소미아' 카드 엇갈린 시선…美 반응했지만 자충수 우려도.” 중앙일보. July 21. https://www.joongang.co.kr/article/23531455. 「GSOMIA」牌引發分歧看法…美方有所反應，也顧慮會自食其果，查閱時間：2025/7/26。
장예진. 2018. “[그래픽] 4·27 판문점 선언 주요 내용” 연합뉴스. April 27. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/GYH20180427001500044. [圖] 4·27 板門店宣言主要內容，查閱時間：2025/7/26。
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
110260008 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110260008 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
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Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
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| 000801.pdf | 1588Kb | Adobe PDF | 2 | View/Open |
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