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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/30909
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30909


    Title: 再發事件之存活分析之研究
    Survival Analysis For Recurrent Event Data
    Authors: 王麗芬
    Wang,Li-Fen
    Contributors: 陳麗霞
    王麗芬
    Wang,Li-Fen
    Keywords: 再發事件
    重複事件
    事故傾向
    隨機效果
    分層模式
    未分層模式
    recurrent events
    frailty
    random effect
    Date: 2005
    Issue Date: 2009-09-14
    Abstract: 處理多重事件或再發事件之事件發生時間的資料時,常會以Cox模式為基礎而予以延伸,其中較適合再發事件的模式為:A-G模式、GT-UR 模式、PWP-CP 模式及PWP-GT模式。這些模式又可按照是否以發生次數為分層變數,而分為未分層模式(包含A-G模式、 GT-UR 模式),及分層模式(包含PWP-CP模式、 PWP-GT 模式)。
    本論文將以改良的Cox延伸模式,包括對變異數進行修正或加入事故傾向(或隨機效果),探討公務人員升等的快慢與哪些變數有關。變異數修正方式利用穩健標準誤以解決事件之再發時間之間的相依問題;事故傾向模式則主要是以隨機效果代表無法觀察到的個體間之異質性,且同一個體的各次發生時間共享相同的異質性,並假定異質性服從某種特定分配。對於各種Cox的延伸模式,我們可比較採用穩健變異數與否對估計及推論結果的差異,以及事故傾向加入前後,估計及推論結果與模式配適上的差異。
    由本論文對公務人員升等資料的分析可發現,採用變異數修正方法時,未分層的模式有較小的變異數估計值,所以顯著的變數較多,包括性別、官等、教育程度及年齡;分層模式中顯著變數則只有官等及教育程度。若假定事故傾向服從對數Gamma分配,並加入於上述四種模式中,則顯著的變數與未加入事故傾向時一致,且各模式之下均無法拒絕所有人的事故傾向同為0的假設。這種現象或許是因為我們無法取得教育程度與公務人員考試及格種類之歷史資料,也有可能是因為公務人員升等的體制健全,且法規制定嚴謹,運作也有正常的模式可循所致。
    Reference: Allison P. D.’Survival analysis using the sas system-a practical guide.’
    Andersen, P. K. and Gill, R.D. ‘Cox’s regression model for counting processes: a large sample study.’ Annals of Statistics, 10, 1100-1120(1982).
    Barai, USHA and Teoh, NICK ‘Multiple statistics for multiple events, with application to repeated infections in the growth factor studies.’ Statistics in Medicine, Vol.16, 941-949(1997).
    Boher, J. and Cook, R.J. (2004). ‘Implications of model misspecification among robust tests for recurrent events.’ Working paper Series and Technical Reports, 2005.05.
    Box-Steffensmeier, J.M., and Boef, S. D. (2002). ‘A monte carlo analysis for recurrent events data.’ Annual Preditical Metholology meeting July 2002, SES-083418.
    Box-Steffensmeier, J.M., and Boef, S. D. (2005). ‘Repeated event survival models: the conditional frailty model.’ Pubmed PMID:16345026.
    Dewanji, A. and Moolgavkar S.H. (1999). ‘A poisson process approach for recurrent event data with environmental covariates.’ NRCSE-TRS, No.028.
    Genser, B. and Werneche, K. D. ‘Joint modeling of repeated transitions in follow-up data - A case study on breast cancer data.’ Biometrical Journal 47(2005)3,388-401.
    Gray, R.J.(1992). ‘Flexible methods for analyzing survival data using splines, with applications to breast cancer prognosis.’ Journal of American Statistical Association, 87, 942-951.
    Greene, W.H.(2002). Econometric Analysis. 5th Ed. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
    Kelly, PJ, Lim, LL. ‘Survival analysis for recurrent event data: an application to childhood infectious disease.’ Statistics in Medicine (1999);19(1):13-33.
    Li, Q.H. and Lagakos, S.W. ‘Use of the WEI-WEISSFELD method for the analysis of a recurring and a terminating event.’ Statistics in Medicine, Vol.16, 925-940(1997).
    Prentice, RL, and Williams, BJ, and Peterson, AV. ‘On the regression analysis of multivariate failure time data.’ Biometrika (1981); 68:373-379.
    Therneau T.M. and Grambsch P. M. ‘Modeling survival data extending the cox model’
    Therneau, T.M., Grambsch, P.M.(1998). ‘Penalized Cox models and frailty.’ Copyright 2000 Mayo Foundation.
    White, H.A. (1980). ‘A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity.’ Econometrica, 48(4), 817-838.
    Wei, LJ. Lin, DY, and Weissfeld, L. ‘Regression analysis of multivariate incomplete failure time data by modeling marginal distributions.’ Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(408):1065-1073(1989).
    Wei, LJ. Glidden, DV. ‘An overview of statistical methods for multiple failure time data in clinical trials.’ Statistics in Medicine (1997); 16(8):833-839.
    考試院考銓研究報告87年度專題「建立公務人員職務輪調制度之研究」。
    考試院考銓研究報告92年度專題「高級文官考選與晉用制度之研究」。
    銓敘部94年意見調查「高級文官考選與晉用制度之研究」調查報告。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計研究所
    93354027
    94
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093354027
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 學位論文

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