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    题名: 伊朗核武問題之研究
    The Study of Iran`s Nuclear Development
    作者: 張力夫
    Chang, Li-fu
    贡献者: 李登科
    Lee, Deng-ker
    張力夫
    Chang, Li-fu
    关键词: 伊朗
    核武防擴散條約
    國際原子能總署
    核能
    核武
    阿赫馬迪內賈德
    Iran
    Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)
    IAEA
    nuclear energy
    nukes
    Ahmadinejad
    日期: 2005
    上传时间: 2009-09-17 17:53:56 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 伊朗伊斯蘭共和國為中東地區主要國家之一。自1957年與美國合作發展核能以來，除了在柯梅尼政權初期曾短暫中斷外，歷任的領導人皆大力支持核科技的發展。從近年來的發現，顯示伊朗正在持續進行某些秘密的核計畫，使得國際憂心伊朗可能有發展核武的意圖。一旦伊朗擁有核武，將對國際安全產生重大衝擊。

    本文分析的重點，在於伊朗發展核科技的背景、動機、經過，還有各國對伊朗核計畫的態度，以及伊朗核武化之後對國際安全的衝擊。
    The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the major powers in the Middle East. Since 1957, when nuclear energy program received technical assistance from the U.S., its successive leaders have eagerly pursued the policy for developing nuclear technology. The only exception took place during the early years of the Ayatollah Khomeni government when all nuclear program was temporarily suspended. Recent disclosures show that Iran has been conducting several covert nuclear programs, which is considered by the international community as a possible step toward nuclear weapons.

    This thesis first analyzes the background of Iran’s nuclear development, its motives, and the evolution of its nuclear development. The U.S., Russia, the PRC, and other related powers’ attitude toward Iran’s nuclear programs will be analyzed latter. Once Iran gets nuclear weapons, its impact on the security in the Middle East as well as on the nuclear non-proliferation regime will also be examined finally.
    參考文獻: 一、專書
    中文專書
    李登科。《冷戰後中共對中東地區的外交政策》，台北：正中書局，1995年。
    周煦。《聯合國與國際政治》，台北：黎明文化事業公司，1993年。
    胡為真。《美國對華「一個中國」政策之演變》，台北：台灣商務印書館，2001年。
    張士智、趙慧杰 著。《美國中東關係史》，北京：中國社會科學出版社，1993年。
    楊永明。《國際安全與國際法：國際安全秩序規範與機制的建構與挑戰》，台北：元照出版公司，2003年。
    鄭又平、侯漢君 等譯。《各國政府與政治》，台北：韋伯出版社，1999年。
    英文專書
    Afrasiabi, Kaveh L. After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran`s Foreign Policy. Boulder: Westview Press, 1994.
    Arnett, Eric H. Nuclear Weapons after the Comprehensive Test Ban: Implications for Modernization and Proliferation. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996.
    Bee, Ronald J. Nuclear Proliferation: the Post-Cold-War Challenge. New York: Foreign Policy Association, 1995.
    Blackwill, Robert D. and Carnesale, Albert. New Nuclear Nations: Consequences for U.S. Policy. New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1993.
    Cirincione, Joseph; Wolfsthal, Jon B. and Rajkumar, Miriam. Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threats, Second Edition Revised and Expanded. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005.
    Davis, Zachary and Frankel, Benjamin, eds. The Proliferation Puzzle. Portland: Frank Cass, 1993.
    Diller, Daniel C. ed. The Middle East. Washington, D. C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1994.
    Ehteshami, Anoushiravan and Varasteh, Manshour. Iran and the International Community. London; New York: Routledge, 1991.
    Esposito, John L. ed. The Iranian Revolution: Its Global Impact. Miami, Fla.: Florida International University Press, 1990.
    Holsti, K. J. International Politics: A Framework for Analysis. 7th ed. N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1995.
    Hunter, Shireen T. Iran and the World: Continuity in a Revolutionary Decade. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1990.
    Keddie, Nikki R. and Gasiorowski, Mark J. eds. Neither East Nor West. New York: Yale University Press, 1990.
    Larsen, Jeffrey A. Arms Control: Cooperative Security in a Changing Environment, Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002.
    Muller, Harald, Fischer, David, and Kotter, Wolfgang. Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Global Order. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.
    OPEC. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2004. Vienna: OPEC, 2005.
    Pilat, Joseph F. and Pendley, Robert E. eds. 1995, A New Beginning for the NPT? New York: Plenum Press, 1995.
    Reiss, Mitchell and Litwak, Robert S. eds. Nuclear Proliferation after the Cold War. Washington D.C.: The Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1994.
    Rezun, Miron. Iran at the Crossroads: Global Relations in a Turbulent Decade. Boulder: Westview Press, 1990
    Sokolski, Henry and Clawson, Patrick eds. Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran. The Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College. 2005.
    Al-Suwaidi, Jamal S. Iran and the Gulf: A Search for Stability. United Arab Emirates: The Emirates Center for Stategic Studies and Research, 1996.
    Thomas, Raju G.. C. ed. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime: Prospects for the 21st Century. Basingstoke, Hampshire: Macmillan Press, 1998.
    美國政府出版品
    Bush, George W. “The President`s State of the Union Address.” Washington D. C.: The White House. 29 January 2002, <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html>.
    CIA. “Technology Relating To Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 1999.” Febuary 2000, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/721_reports/jan_jun1999.html>.
    CIA. World Factbook 2006. 2006, <https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html>.
    Feickert, Andrew. Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries. Congressional Research Service Reports(U.S.), 5 March 2004.
    Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, U.S. Department of State. Country Report on Terrorism 2004. April 2005, <http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/45313.pdf>.
    Office of the Secretary of Defense(US). Proliferation: Threat and Response. Washington, D. C.: April 1996, <http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/prolif97/toc.html >.
    U.S. Deaprtment of Defense. Nuclear Posture Review(classified). Jan 2002, excerpts available at <http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/npr.htm>.
    The White House. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Mar. 2006, <http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html>.
    二、期刊論文
    中文期刊論文
    江紅。〈巴勒維王朝時期英、美在伊朗的勢力消長〉，《歷史月刊》，第183卷，2003年4月，頁34-44。
    林岩哲。〈核子試爆與核武擴散〉，《問題與研究》，第34卷第11期，1995年11月，頁39-49。
    姜家雄。〈冷戰後中共與伊朗軍事合作關係之研究〉，《國際關係學報》，第13卷，1998年12月，頁121-145。
    苗華壽。〈從“上海五國”機制到“上海合作組織”〉，《和平與發展》，2001年第3期，頁25-28。
    夏義善。〈“上海合作組織”的特點及其發展前景〉，《和平與發展》，2001 年第3期，頁22-25。
    陳文生。〈海灣戰爭期間伊朗之中立政策〉，《問題與研究》，第41卷第4期，2002年7月，頁65-81。
    陳文賢。〈柯林頓政府的核武政策〉，《問題與研究》，第37卷第5期，1998年5月，頁1-16。
    陳立樵。〈伊朗革命與何梅尼(1977-1979)〉，《中興史學》，第11卷，2005年6月，頁49-76。
    蔡百銓。〈伊朗─從波斯到伊斯蘭共和國〉，《歷史月刊》，第90卷，1995年7月，頁36-42。
    英文期刊論文
    Albright,David. “An Iranian Bomb?” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 51, No. 4, July/August 1995, pp.20-26.
    Bahgat, Gawdat. “The New Iran: A Myth or A Reality?” Asian Affairs. Vol. 29, Iss. 2, Jun. 1998.
    -------------------. “Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Iraq and Iran,” The Journal of Social, Political, and Economic Studies. Vol. 28, No.4, Winter 2003, pp. 423-449.
    Betts, Richard K. “Incentives for Nuclear Weapons: India, Pakistan, Iran,” Asian Survey. Vol. 19, No. 11, Nov.1979, pp. 1053-1072.
    Bill, James A. “The politics of Hegemony: The United States and Iran,” Middle East Policy.Vol. 8, No. 3, September 2001, pp. 89-100.
    Hooglund, Eric. “Iranian Views of the Arab-Israeli Conflict,” Journal of Palestine Studies. Vol. 25, No.1, Autumn 1995, pp.86-95.
    Hunter, Robert E. “The Iran Case: Addressing Why Countries Want Nuclear Weapons,” Arms Control Today. Vol. 34, No. 10, Dec 2004, pp. 22-25.
    Gause, F. Gregory. “The Illogic of Dual Containment.” Foreign Affairs. Vol. 73 Iss.2, Mar/Apr 1994, pp. 56-66.
    Inbar, Efraim. “The Need to Block a Nuclear Iran,” Middle East Review of International Affairs. Vol. 10, No. 1, Mar. 2006, pp.85-104.
    Jalali, Ali A. “The strategic partnership of Russia and Iran,” Parameters. Vol. 31, No. 4, Winter 2001/2002, pp.98-111.
    Ladjevardi, Habib. “The origions of U.S. Support for an Autocratic Iran,” International Journal of Middle East Studies. Vol.15, No. 2, May 1983, pp.225-239.
    Lake, Anthony. “Confronting Backlash States.” Foreign Affairs. Vol. 73 Iss.2, Mar/Apr 1994, pp. 45-55.
    Milani, Mohsen M. “The Evolution of the Iranian Presidency: From Bani Sadr to Rafsanjani,” British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. Vol. 20 No. 1, 1993, pp.83-97.
    Mizin, Victor. “The Russia-Iran Nuclear Connection and U.S.Policy Options,” Middle East Review of International Affairs. Vol. 8, No. 1, Mar. 2004, pp.71-85.
    Pajak, Roger F. “Nuclear Status and Policies of Middle East Countries,” International Affairs. Vol.59, No.4, Autumn 1983, pp. 587-607.
    Poneman, Daniel. “Nuclear Policies in Developing Countries,” International Affairs. Vol.57, No.4, Autumn 1981, pp. 568-584.
    Ramazani, R. K. “Ideology and Pragmatism in Iran`s Foreign Policy,” The Middle East Journal. Vol. 58, No. 4, Autumn 2004, pp. 549-559.
    Rubinstein, Alvin Z. “The Soviet Union and Iran under Khomeini,” International Affairs. Vol. 57, No.4, Autumn 1981, pp.599-617.
    Sadr, Ehsaneh I. “The Impact of Iran’s Nuclearization on Israel,” Middle East Policy. Vol. 12, No.2, Summer 2005, pp. 58-72.
    Sagan, Scott D. “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security. Vol.21, No. 3, Winter 1996, pp.54-86.
    Sick, Gary. “Iran`s Quest for Superpower Status,” Foreign Affairs. Vol. 65, No.4, Spring 1987, pp.697-715.
    Takeyh, Ray. “Iran’s Nuclear Calculations,” World Policy Journal. Vol. 20, No. 2, Summer 2003, pp.21-28.
    Ziad, Homayra. “Iran`s Domestic Reforms and International Policies,” Washington Report on Middle East Affairs. Vol. 22, Iss. 5, June 2003.
    Zonis, Marvin. “All in the Timing: Renewing U.S.-Iran relations,” World Policy Journal. Vol. 16, No.4, Winter 1999/2000, pp. 33-48.
    三、報紙
    中文報紙
    《中央日報》
    《中國時報》
    《台灣新生報》
    《民族晚報》
    《自由時報》
    《青年日報》
    《聯合報》
    英文報紙
    The China Daily. (North American Edition)
    The Guardian.
    The Jerusalem Post.
    The Middle East Times.
    The New York Times.
    The Tehran Times.
    The Washington Post.
    The Washington Times.
    四、英文網路資源
    Agence France Presse.【www.afp.com/english/home/】
    Associated Press.【www.ap.org】
    BBC.【news.bbc.co.uk】
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.【www.carnegieendowment.org】
    Center for Nonproliferation Studies(CNS), Monterey Institute of International Studies.【cns.miis.edu】
    Foreign Policy In Focus (FPIF).【www.fpif.org】
    Global Security.【www.globalsecurity.org】
    IAEA.【www.iaea.org】
    Iran Watch.【www.iranwatch.org/】
    Al Jazeera.【english.aljazeera.net/HomePage】
    The Arms Control Association.【www.armscontrol.org】
    JSTOR.【www.jstor.org】
    ProQuest.【proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?RQT=301&UserId=IPAuto&Passwd=IPAuto&JSEna&cfc=1】
    Reuters.【today.reuters.com/news/home.aspx】
    The International Foundation for Election Systems, IFES.【www.ifes.org】
    The Islamic Republic News Agency.【www.irna.ir/en/frontpage/menu-232/】
    MissileThreat.com(The Claremont Institute, U.S.)【www.missilethreat.com/】
    The Nuclear Threat Initiative, NTI.【www.nti.org】
    United Nations.【www.un.org】
    The White House.【www.whitehouse.gov】
    Wikipedia.【en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page】
    WorldAtlas.com.【worldatlas.com】
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交研究所
    92253011
    94
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922530111
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[外交學系] 學位論文

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