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    Title: 匯率不確定性對台灣出口波動之影響
    Authors: 郭佩婷
    Kuo, Pei Ting
    Contributors: 陳坤銘
    饒秀華

    Chen, Kun Ming
    Rau, Hsiu Hau

    郭佩婷
    Kuo, Pei Ting
    Keywords: 匯率不確定性
    出口波動
    雙變量GARCH模型
    匯率波動
    exchange rate uncertainty
    export volatility
    bivariate GARCH model
    exchange rate volatility
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 14:14:19 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文目的在於探討匯率不確定性對台灣出口波動之影響。本文應用Barkoulas et al.(2002)理論架構,利用台灣1989年至2007年的月資料。實證結果發現:美元、日圓兌新台幣的匯率波動對於台灣出口美、日兩國的數量並無明顯的影響。美元兌新台幣的匯率波動對於以美國為進口國的台灣出口波動則有正向的影響;日圓兌新台幣的匯率波動對於以日本為進口國的台灣出口波動卻沒有顯著影響。本文認為:造成美元匯率波動主要支配力量,來自於貨幣政策制定者掌握之資訊優勢差異;造成日圓匯率波動的來源則無主要支配力量的存在。造成此種結果的原因在於貨幣政策制定者長久以來所建立的政策可信度所致,削減了造成美元匯率波動的另外二股力量。因此,新台幣兌換美元匯率波動取決於貨幣政策制定者掌握經濟真實狀況的能力與其貨幣政策方向。
    This paper investigates into the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on Taiwan export volatility. Under the theoretical framework of Barkoulas et al.(2002) and the empirical monthly data of Taiwan exports from 1989 to 2007, it is summarized that the exchange rate volatility of NTD/USD and NTD/JPY had no effect on the Taiwan exporting volume toward U.S. or Japan. However, the exchange rate volatility of NTD/USD did have positive effect on the export volatility of Taiwan to U.S. while that of NTD/JPY had no significant effect on the export volatility of Taiwan to Japan.It is argued that the dominant source of NTD/USD exchange rate volatility resulted from the variance of monetary authorities’ information advantage. On the other hand, it exists no such a dominant source in NTD/JPY exchange rate volatility.
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    -中文文獻-
    黃韻禎,2007,「匯率波動對台灣出口的影響」,政治大學國際貿易學研究所碩士論文
    蔡宜靜,2007,「我國外匯干預與貨幣政策及匯率變動之相關性分析—訊息傳遞管道」,政治大 學國際貿易學研究所碩士論文
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    95351019
    96
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351019
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Business] Theses

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