政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/35161

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/35161

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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of International Business > Theses > Item 140.119/35161

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35161

Title:	波浪理論在台灣股市的應用性探討 Applying Wave Principle to Taiwan Stock Market
Authors:	徐駿豪
Contributors:	郭維裕徐駿豪
Keywords:	波浪理論台灣加權股價指數費波南西艾略特道氏理論 Wave Principle Taiwan Weighted Stock Index Fibonacci Elliot Dow Theory
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2009-09-18 14:18:51 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	波浪理論是由 Nalph Nelson Elliott在1938年所發表的價格趨勢分析工具，它也是近年來技術分析界運用相當廣泛的一種工具。艾略特認為：「不管是股票或是任何商品價格的波動，都與大自然潮汐一樣，具有一種相當程度的規律性。」。其實這個原理和產業周期循環也很接近，運用於越多人參與的市場會越準確，因為人性也是一種大自然的現象。台灣加權股價指數是以民國55年為基期100來編製，本文雖由民國55年談起，但由於資料繁多，故集中採用民國76年1月至民國95年12月的二十年資料做為資料收集期間，以艾略特波浪理論的原則找出在台灣股市的應用規則，進而推演出未來的走勢。 Wave Principle is a trend analysis method that was developed by Nalph Elliott in 1938. Today, the principle is one of the most widely adopted methods for technical analysis in finance. Elliott discovered that the ever-changing path of stock market prices reveals a structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. In fact this principle is also similar to industry cycle. When this principle is utilized in a market, especially when a lot of people participate in this market, the principle will be rather accurate, because humanity is also a natural phenomenon. The Taiwan Weighted Stock Index was at 100 in 1966, the base period. Although the discussion in this paper starts from 1966, due to the abundance of the data, I decide to focus my research on the recent twenty years. The purpose of this study is to identify the usability of Eilliott’s Wave Principle by applying it in Taiwan’s stock market and to figure out the trend for the future.
Reference:	中文部分： 1.鄧福鈞，「波浪理論針對台股走勢之實證與預測」，台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文，民國八十九年。 2.林清和，「艾略特波浪理論應用系統」，台灣科技大學電子工程技術研究所碩士論文，民國八十六年。 3.樊冬心，「股票投資決策之研究」，中華大學工業研究所，民國八十四年。 4.喀什蘭若，「艾略特波浪理論」百年的投資智慧-神奇的價格預測，經史子集出版社，民國八十九年六月。 5.周英，「波浪洩天機」，鑫報證券投資顧問股份有限公司，民國八十八年初版。 6. 許沂光，「波浪理論與四度空間」-金融分析法導論，明報出版社有限公司，民國八十四年四月初版。 7. 白輔台，「波浪理論實戰篇」技術分析指引，小報文化有限公司，民國八十二年三月初版。 8. 譯者張嚶嚶、蕭長榮，原著A.J. Frost、Robert R. Prechter, Jr.，「艾略特波浪理論」-擴大預言1990年代股市行情，眾文圖書股份有限公司，民國八十年十二月初版。 9. 詹豐隆編譯，「甘氏角與波浪理論」，書泉出版社，民國八十年六月初版。 10.江瑞凱著，「波浪理論解析」-以台灣股市為例，眾文圖書股份有限公司，民國八十年四月初版。 11. 容樹堅、蔡惠英著，「進入全新的走勢境界」介紹波浪理論與動量分析，寰宇出版股份有限公司，民國七十七年五月初版。英文部分： 1.Robert R. Prechter, Jr., “THE MAJOR WORKS OF R.N. ELLIOTT,” New Classic Library, 1990. 2.Frost and Prechter, “ ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE-Key to Stock Market Profits,” New Classic Library, 1990. 3.Elliott Wave International, “The Basics of the Elliott Wave Principle,” (http://www.elliottwave.com/)
Description:	碩士國立政治大學國際經營與貿易研究所 92932119 95
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0929321191
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Business] Theses

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