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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37416


    Title: 時序不一致性的三個議題
    Authors: 范志萍
    Contributors: 賴景昌
    范志萍
    Keywords: 時序不一致性
    中央銀行獨立性
    通貨膨脹傾向
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2009-09-19 13:41:38 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Kydland and Prescott (1977)及Barro and Gordon (1983)提出權衡性的貨幣政策伴隨著通貨膨脹傾向問題的產生,之後陸續有許多學者提出解決之道。如將貨幣政策委託給保守的央行官員執行、政府與央行官員簽訂績效契約、央行官員訂定目標通貨膨脹水準、提升央行的獨立性及增加貨幣政策的透明度等。這些解決通貨膨脹傾向的方法,不外乎從經濟或是政治結構、制度、貨幣當局的偏好及訊息等方面著手。因此,本文分別從結構面、訊息面及制度面探討如何降低通貨膨脹傾向。
    首先,從結構面著手,考慮名目工資僵固性的問題。藉由工資調整指數的增加,一方面使短期Phillips曲線的斜率變陡,改變了通貨膨脹與失業兩者的抵換關係,打消央行官員採行權衡性的貨幣政策提高產出的念頭;另一方面則降低任用保守央行官員的意願,非保守央行官員將選擇較高的通貨膨脹政策。因此工資調整指數是否可以減少通貨膨脹傾向,將決定於這兩種影響的相對大小。
    再者,從訊息面思考,民眾藉由央行官員宣示的目標產出水準的訊息,進行訊息提煉,修正通貨膨脹的預期,得到供給面訊息的透明度相對較低時,民眾會委託愈保守的獨立央行官員來制訂貨幣政策,進而改善通貨膨脹傾向問題的結論。
    最後,從制度面作考量,同時考慮工會、貨幣當局與財政當局三種角色的模型,結果發現:當我們任用愈保守的央行官員執行貨幣政策時,其對通貨膨脹傾向產生的影響有二:一是愈保守的央行官員會降低民眾通貨膨脹的預期,且選擇較低的通貨膨脹率政策,其對通貨膨脹傾向的影響是直接且為負向的,這管道與Rogoff (1985)相同;另一則是愈保守的央行官員在執行貨幣政策時,工會就可以利用央行官員保守的特性,致力追求高工資加碼,而不必擔心物價的上漲,所以選擇較高的工資加碼,為因應工會的決定,央行官員在考慮財政當局的決策行為下,將選擇較高的通貨膨脹率來回應之,其對通貨膨脹傾向的影響是間接且為正向的,這管道與Rogoff (1985)截然不同。就是因為多考慮了工會的角色,讓民眾作出現與Rogoff (1985)不同方向的通貨膨脹預期,因此,我們才會得到愈保守的央行官員執行貨幣政策,其帶來的通貨膨脹傾向影響決定於這兩種效果的相對大小的結論。
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    Description: 博士
    國立政治大學
    經濟研究所
    89258501
    97
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892585011
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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