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| Title: | 2010年各國戶口普查制度之研究
An international study of 2010 population census methods |
| Authors: | 顏貝珊
Yen, Bei Shan |
| Contributors: | 余清祥
顏貝珊
Yen, Bei Shan |
| Keywords: | 戶口普查
登記式普查
美國社區調查
常住人口
戶籍人口
Population and Housing Census
Registered-Based Census
American Community Survey
Registered Population
Permanent Resident |
| Date: | 2009 |
| Issue Date: | 2010-12-08 14:52:44 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 戶口普查的主旨在於瞭解一個國家或地區的人口及其相關特性，國家的政策制訂及人力規劃需仰賴正確的調查結果。但隨著社會變遷等諸多因素，即使增加費用也無法提高普查的完訪率，資料的品質也因民眾配合意願而降低。為提高資料品質與降低調查成本等因素，部份國家積極發展新的普查方法，預計在2010年普查正式實施，取代傳統的戶口普查。
本研究整理新的普查方法，包括登記式普查、登記式普查結合抽樣調查、滾動式普查等方法。其中也包括行政院計畫預計在2010年以登記式普查結合抽樣調查取代傳統的戶口普查，效法新加坡、北歐四國與荷蘭，整合公務登記系統取得普查短表資料，抽樣調查代替國外長表問卷，希冀獲得較為詳細的教育、生育、居家老人照護等社經議題之統計資料。除了整理資料外，本文也將討論2010年台灣的戶口普查，以常住人口為調查目標，可能衍生的問題。
另外，本研究也將整理美國與法國即將採用的調查方法，包括美國社區調查（American Community Survey）的設計與抽樣方法，用於普查以取代長表問卷的可能，並研究抽樣調查蒐集人口的限制，比較普查及調查蒐集資料的優缺點。
The objective of the population and housing census is to collect the demographic information on the population in a nation or an area which will be used as a reference for government planning and policy making. Because of the dramatic change in the social environment, some problems were generated as a result, such as the increase in survey cost, non-response rate, and data demand. Although many countries are still using the Traditional Census method for the 2010 census, some are active in developing new methods to improve the quality of data collected and to decrease the survey cost.
Following the examples of Singapore, Netherland, and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), the method for conducting the 2010 Taiwan Census will be different, changing from the traditional census to registered-based census with sampling survey. This method will integrate the official registry system to acquire the basic demographic characteristics, and collect more detailed information on the social and economic topics, including the aspects of education, fertility, and elder care by using sampling methods. Consequently, this research will be separated into two parts. The first part will introduce and analyze several common census methods used, including the Traditional Census method, Registered-Based Census, Registered-Based Census with Sampling Survey, and the Rolling Census. In addition, the target population of 2010 Taiwan Census is De Jure population and we shall also discuss its potential problems.
In the second part, the research will further examine the survey methods that will be used for the U.S. and French census, including the design concept and the sampling method executed by the American Community Survey (ACS) to replace the long-form questionnaire for the 2010 U.S. Census. Finally, we will discuss the restrictions of using sampling to collect data, compare the strengths and weaknesses of census and the different sampling methods, as well as analyze the problems related to the registered population and the permanent residents. |
| Reference: | 中文部分
中華人民共和國香港特別行政區政府統計處（2001）香港二零零一年人口普查主要報告:第二冊。
中華人民共和國香港特別行政區政府統計處（2006）香港二零零六年中期人口統計主要報告:第二冊。
行政院主計處（2004）新加坡的統計制度。
行政院主計處（2007）2010年人口及住宅普查構想與發展之研究。
余清祥、胡玉蕙（1999）從美國經驗探討抽樣在普查之新角色，主計月刊522:60-66。
沈益民（1983）近三十年世界人口普查和人口概況，北京：群眾。
洪永泰（1996）戶籍登記常住人口與非常住人口之差異研究，國科會專題研究報告。
洪永泰（2003）原始樣本、替代樣本、與追蹤樣本的比較：「2001年臺灣選舉與民主化調查研究」訪問失敗問題的探討，選舉研究10(2):37-58。
張善余（2003）中國人口地理，北京：科學。
張新儀、林明珠、洪永泰、林淑慧（2003），臺灣地區「常住人口」與「移動人口」的比較：2001年國民健康訪問調查資料的實證分析，調查研究14:5-29。
許耿修（2003）台灣戶政制度研究，國立成功大學歷史學研究所碩士論文。
陳紹馨（1979）臺灣的人口變遷與社會變遷，台北：聯經。
陳肇男、劉克智（2002）台灣2000 年戶口普查結果的評價：常住人口與戶籍登記口的比較分析，人口學刊25:1-56。
黃于玲、周元暉（2005）荷蘭2001年虛擬普查簡介，中國統計通訊，16(4):2-8。
蔡宏進、廖正宏（1987） 人口學，台北：巨流。
英文部分
Department of Statistics, Singapore（2002）, “Singapore Census of Population 2000: Administrative Report”
Hogan, Howard（1993）“The 1990 Post-enumeration Survey: Operation and Results”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.88, No.423, 1047-1060
National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies （2008）, “Data validation in the French Census”
National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies（2004）, “The French new rolling census”, UNECE Seminar on New Methods for Population Census
Statistics Netherlands（2004）, “The Dutch Virtual Census of 2001: Analysis and Methodology”
UN Census Knowledge Base, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/censuskb/
UN（2007）, “Population and Vital Statistics Report”
UN（2008）, “Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses”
UNECE（2007）,“Register-based statistics in the Nordic countries”
UNECE（2008）, “Measuring population and housing :Practices of UNECE countries in the 2000 round of censuses”
U.S. Bureau of the Census（2006）. “American Community Survey: Design and Methodology” |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
96354011
98 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096354011 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 學位論文
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