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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50039


    Title: 購屋者房價預期分析
    Authors: 陳佳甫
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    陳佳甫
    Keywords: 房價預期
    預期異質性
    多項羅吉特模型
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2010-12-09 16:46:54 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 價格預期是影響市場價格波動的重要因素，但過去房價預期的研究多半以客觀的市場與環境因素取代購屋者實際的預期，缺乏購屋個體實際的預期研究。股價與物價預期相關研究已從個體預期的角度發現價格預期具有高度的異質性，隱含多元豐富的資訊。故本研究希望釐清個體購屋者預期，是否因身分屬性、搜尋行為、動機與認知產生不同的預期？房價預期的差異與股價預期、民生消費品價格預期有何不同與類似之處？在不同的景氣狀況之下預期之異質性是否因此而改變？
    由於購屋者預期為類別變數，本研究使用多項羅吉特模型。實證結果顯示，購屋者身分、行為、動機與認知使房價預期產生差異，其中女性購屋者看漲機率較男性高與消費市場預期差異結果相同，加上住宅投資消費目的皆較投資者多，推測購屋者對住宅商品之看法仍偏向消費市場。此外，從在不同景氣階段，房價預期之異質性會因此改變，主因是住宅投資與消費價比例發生變化。當市場投資比例增加時，購屋者房價預期差異較大，反之預期差異較小。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政研究所
    96257014
    97
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096257014
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Land Economics] Theses

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