English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 109948/140897 (78%)
Visitors : 46076100      Online Users : 627
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50681


    Title: 台灣選舉預測：預測市場的運用與實證分析
    Authors: 童振源
    Keywords: 立委選舉;台北市長選舉;高雄市長選舉;預測市場;總統大選
    legislator election;Taipei mayoral election;Kaohsiung mayoral election;prediction markets;presidential election
    Date: 2009-11
    Issue Date: 2011-08-01 09:57:21 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 透過預測市場的機制來預測選舉，在國外已經有相當豐碩的研究成果，也被證明具有很高的準確度。因此，本論文要回答的問題是：預測市場是否可以準確預測台灣選舉結果？本論文先介紹預測市場的機制，進而運用預測市場的機制來預測台灣的選舉。根據未來事件交易所的資料顯示，我們發現預測市場機制運用於2006 年北高市長選舉以及2008年台灣總統與立委選舉同樣可以準確預測選舉結果。在這三次的選舉預測中，預測市場對選舉預測的準確度均超過同一時間所進行（但尚未加權）的民意調查。對此，本論文也比較了預測市場和民意調查的差異。
    Prediction Markets have been widely used abroad to forecast election results for many years. It has also been proved that such a mechanism can accurately predict election outcomes. Therefore, this paper would like to understand whether prediction markets can accurately predict Taiwan`s election outcomes. First, this paper introduces the mechanism of prediction markets and then applies the prediction market mechanism to predict Taiwan`s elections. According to the data provided by the Exchange for Future Events, we find that the prediction markets mechanism has accurately predicted the outcomes of Taiwan`s Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections in 2006, and Taiwan`s presidential election and legislator election in 2008. For these three elections, the predictive accuracy of prediction markets is higher than (unweighted) opinion poll surveys conducted during the same period. This paper then discusses the differences between prediction market and opinion survey.
    Relation: 選舉研究, 16(2), 131-166
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[國家發展研究所] 期刊論文
    [經濟學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    131-166.pdf2577KbAdobe PDF2791View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback