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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 金融學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/50842
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50842


    Title: 台股指數與總體經濟變數相關性之探討
    Discussion on Taiwan stock index and the overall correlation of economic variables
    Authors: 林威凱
    Contributors: 朱浩民
    林威凱
    Keywords: 總體經濟變數
    因果關係檢定
    共整合檢定
    誤差修正模型
    衝擊反映函數
    變異數分解
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2011-09-29 16:50:31 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究之樣本取自1991年7月1日至2010年3月之月資料,探討各總體經濟變數包括:利率、匯率(美元對新台幣)、M1B、出口、GDP、領先指標綜合指數與大陸及美國兩股市,對台股指數之影響。實證結果顯示,道瓊工業指數為影響台股加權指數最具代表性與領先的指標,大陸股市則非如一般所預期對台股指數變動有重要解釋能力。且道瓊工業指數、利率、M1b、GDP對台股具有領先的單向因果關係。

    在衝擊反應函數及變異數分解中,除了道瓊工業指數為判斷台股指數變動最重要因素外,利率與貨幣供給則扮演著解釋台股變動另一重要的角色,利率調升對台股指數之影響為先正後負,當利率調升前,投資者會事先反應,但調升後便會開始調節,反而對台股造成負向影響;而GDP及出口在變異數分解中占台股變異數比例是相對次高的比重,說明台股的變動反應了經濟的基本面因素,台股的變動亦會受其影響,惟此二項變數屬於落後指標,只能用在事後分析。而(美元兌新台幣)匯率及領先指標綜合指數則對台股變動無顯著解釋能力。
    Reference: 參考文獻
    一、中文部份:
    1. 冉雋(2002),流動性與總體經濟-台灣股票實證,國立政治大學國際貿易學系未出版碩士論文。
    2. 林基煌、徐正義(2004),「東亞地區新興市場匯率與股價指數之關係-金融風暴前後的實證分析」,中華管理學報,第五卷,第一期,23-29。
    3. 邱哲修、邱建良、蘇英谷(2001),「台灣匯率波動對股價報酬之影響」,企銀季刊第二十四卷,第四期,131-147。
    4. 邱國欽、林鳴琴、王正己、呂偉傑(2007),「股價、景氣狀態與貨幣政策-台灣證券交易所發行量加權指數實證研究¬」 ,財金論文叢刊 ,P110-127。
    5. 洪之良(2001),台美兩地之股價與總體經濟變數關聯性研究,國立交通大學經營管理學系未出版碩士論文。
    6. 涂嵂婷(2008),動量報酬、波動度與總體經濟變數關係之實證研究,國立中央大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
    7. 徐鍵欣(2004),定期總體經濟訊息之宣告效果-以台指現貨、期貨及台指選擇權VIX為例,台北大學合作經濟學研究所未出版碩士論文。
    8. 陳政傑(2003),利用總體指標進行指數投資的擇時策略,國立政治大學財務管理學系未出版碩士論文。
    9. 黃慶光(2000),台灣股價指數反向操作策略及價量關係分析,國立中正大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
    10. 黃勁豪(2001),台灣股票市場波動性與總體經濟波動性關係之研究,東海大學企業管理學系未出版碩士論文。
    11. 曾惠淇(2004),台灣領先指標綜合指數與總體經濟活動關聯性之研究,逢甲大學財務金融學系未出版碩士論文。
    12. 劉素疋(2005),總體經濟因素與股價關係之研究,國立雲林科技大學財務金融學系未出版碩士論文。
    13. 魏宏泰(2003),台灣股價與總體經濟變數關係之實證研究,朝陽科技大學財務金融學系未出版碩士論文。

    二、英文部分:
    1. Campbell, J.Y., M. Lettau, B.G. Malkiel and Y. Xu. (2001), “Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile:An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk,” Journal of Finance, Vol.56, pp. 1-43.
    2. Chan, L. K. C., N. Jegadeesh and J. Jegadeesh (1996),“Momentum Strategies,” Journal of Finance, Vol.51, pp1681-1713.
    3. Cheung, Y. W. and L.K. Ng (1998), “International Evidence on the Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Activity,” Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol.5, pp.281-296.
    4. Connolly, R. and C. Stivers (2005), “Macroeconomic News, Stock Turnover and Volatility Clustering in Daily Stock Return,” The Journal of Financial Research, Vol.28, pp.235-259.
    5. Fifield, S.G.M., D.M. Power and C.D. Sinclair (2002), “Macroeconomic Factors and Share Returns: An Analysis Using Emerging Market Data,” International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.7(1), pp.51-62.
    6. Graham, M., J. Nikkinen, and P. Sahlstrom (2003),“Relative Importance of Scheduled Macroeconomic News for Stock Market Investors,” Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol.27, 153-165
    7. James, C., S. Koreisha and M. Partch (1985), “A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates¬,” Journal of Finance, Vol.40, pp.1375-1384.
    8. Jegadeesh, N. and S. Titman (1993), “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency,” Journal of Finance Vol.56, pp.699-720.
    9. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vector,” Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, Vol.12, pp.231-254.
    10. Johansen, Soren and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistic, Vol.52, pp.169-210.
    11. Kim, S. J. and J. Sheen (2000), “International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility-Australia and the US¬,” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.8, pp.85-113
    12. Laopodis, N. T. and B.L. Sawhney (2002), “Dynamic Interactions between Main Street and Wall Street,” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.42, (4), pp.803-815.
    13. Maysami, R. C. and T.S. Koh (2000), “A Vector Error Correction Model of the Singapore Stock Market,” International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.9, pp.79-96.
    14. Nikkinen, J. and P. Sahlstron (2001), “Impact of Scheduled U.S. Macroeconomic News on Stock Market Uncertainty:A Multinational Perspective,” Multinational Finance Journal, Vol.5, pp.129-148
    15. Pearce, D. K. and V. Raley (1985), “Stock Prices and Economic News,” Journal of Business, Vol.58, pp.49-67.
    16. Ram, Rati and David E. Spencer (1983), “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money,” The American Economic Review, Vol.73, pp.463-470.
    17. Resnick, Bruce G. and Gary L. Shoesmith (2002), “Using the Yield Curve to Time the Stock Market¬,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol.158, no.3, pp.83-91
    18. Schwert, G.W. (1989), “Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time,” Journal of Finance, Vol.12, no.5, pp.1115-1153.
    19. Wongbangpo, P. and S. C. Sharma (2002), “Stock Market and Macro-economic Fundamental Dynamic Interactions: ASEAN-5 Countries,” Journal of Asian Economics, Vol.13, (1), pp. 27-51.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    金融研究所
    97352001
    98
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097352001
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[金融學系] 學位論文

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