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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/52139


    Title: 大中華地區生育率影響因素之研究
    Other Titles: A Study on the Determinants of Fertility in the Greater China Region
    Authors: 吳文傑
    Contributors: 行政院國家科學委員會
    國立政治大學財政系
    Keywords: 生育率;總體經濟波動;不對稱循環;大中華圈
    Date: 2012-10
    Issue Date: 2011-11-16 15:11:33 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 過去已經有一些實證研究在檢驗是否生育率與經濟景氣呈現正循環或者反循環現象。這些研究主要採取美國或OECD國家的資料。不過，這樣的實證證據在大中華地區是比較缺乏的，特別是針對中國大陸。本研究計畫除了希冀針對大中華圈三個主要經濟體進行生育率與經濟景氣關係的實證分析外，也針對過去的實證文獻所採用的假定(hypothesis)提出不一樣的看法。過去的文獻都假設總體經濟變數對於生育率的影響效果大小在經濟景氣時(expansion)與衰退時(recession)是對稱的(symmetric)。不過我主張生育率對於總體經濟變數的反應在經濟景氣時(expansion)與衰退時(recession)應該存在不對稱的(asymmetric)。採用大中華圈的生育率資料，本研究最主要的預期貢獻即是提供生育率循環是否為不對稱的證據。為了與過去探討先進國家低生育率原因的文獻相連結，本研究也希望利用大中華圈的panel資料，來探討影響台灣、香港、中國三地低生育率現象的決定因素。
    Whether the fertility exhibits a procyclical or countercyclical pattern has been examined in several studies mainly employing the USA or OECD data. However, we seldom find this kind of empirical evidences for the greater China region including Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China. In addition to employing the data of greater China region to conduct the tests on the response of fertility to the business cycle, this project will differ from the previous studies in performing tests to determine whether fertility cycles are asymmetric. Previous empirical studies examining the link between fertility and short-run economic fluctuations all assume that the response of fertility to business cycle is symmetric. However, I propose a testable hypothesis that the responses are asymmetric in both economic upturn and downturn. In order to link my study to another line of literature exploring the determinants of low fertility outcomes in developed countries, I would also employ the panel data to find out the determinants of low fertility outcomes in the greater China region.
    Relation: 應用研究
    學術補助
    研究期間:10008~ 10107
    研究經費:386仟元
    Source URI: http://grbsearch.stpi.narl.org.tw/GRB/result.jsp?id=1930145&plan_no=NSC100-2410-H004-077&plan_year=100&projkey=PF10006-0890&target=plan&highStr=*&check=0&pnchDesc=%E5%A4%A7%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E5%9C%B0%E5%8D%80%E7%94%9F%E8%82%B2%E7%8E%87%E5%BD%B1%E9%9F%BF%E5%9B%A0%E7%B4%A0%E4%B9%8B%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 國科會研究計畫

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