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| Title: | 脫退率模型之建構與應用―台灣壽險資料
Establishment and Application of Lapse Rate Model |
| Authors: | 彭文慧
Peng,Wen Hui |
| Contributors: | 黃泓智
彭文慧
Peng,Wen Hui |
| Keywords: | 脫退率
保單年度
利差
準備金
lapse rate
policy year
interest rate difference
reserve |
| Date: | 2011 |
| Issue Date: | 2012-10-30 11:24:36 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以保險事業發展中心之資料分析各種不同因子如年度、性別、保額、有無體檢、保費繳別、保單年度及利差、利率等對脫退率之影響，並將其中較具顯著影響的因子納入脫退率模型之建立，期望能藉此模型準確估計台灣壽險公司生死合險、終身壽險以及定期壽險之脫退率，進而幫助壽險公司之財務規劃。
自本研究之分析發現其中最具影響力之因子為保單生效後之保單年度，因此以此為主軸建立脫退率模型，接著，亦考量利差以及利率所呈現的趨勢於其中分別建立保單年度利差模型以及保單年度利率模型，此外，更完整考量本研究中脫退率相關因素，以羅吉斯迴歸方法建立模型。最後將此四種模型應用於壽險公司準備金之提存，以生死合險為例模擬公司現金流量，發現準備金之分配如同
Tsai et al.(2002)受利率風險影響甚鉅，而加入本研究所建立之四種脫退率模型模擬後，反而減少了公司未來所須面臨的利率風險，其中又以保單年度模型影響最大，而第四種脫退率模型不同於Tsai et al.根據台灣壽險經驗加入所有具影響之因素，其模擬結果介於保單年度模型以及保單年度利率模型間，可發現考量因素之不同對脫退率影響甚鉅，繼而影響準備金之提存。
In this article, we focus on the causes and the features of lapse rate including year, sex, size, underwriting method, premium payment mode, policy year, interest rate and interest rate difference by collecting and analyzing the empirical data of endowment, whole life insurance and term life insurance in Taiwan from Taiwan Insurance Institute. Then we take factors that have effect with lapse rate into account to establish model, and we hope to accurately estimate the lapse rate of endowment, whole life insurance and term life insurance in Taiwan by these models, and assist the life insurance companies’ financial decision making.
After analyzing, we find the most effective factor of this study is the policy year, which means the year after issuing, so we take this one as our primary consideration of our lapse rate model. Then we add the interest rate difference and interest rate in the further two models. Beside this, we further consider the important factors in the part of analysis and put it in the fourth model by using Logistic Regression Model. Finally, we apply these four models to the policy reserve of life insurance company by taking endowment policy as an example simulating the cash flow. We find that the results was same as Tsai et al. (2002) that distribution of policy reserve is strongly affected by interest rate risk, but can decrease interest rate risk the company have to face in the future by adding our lapse rate models, especially the policy year model, and the fourth lapse rate model which count into most factors was not the same as Tsai et al. producing result between policy year model and the policy- interest rate model. From the results of all the lapse rate model. We can know that considering different factors in the model will bring such distinct contribution amount of reserve for life insurance company. |
| Reference: | 1. Buck, N. F. 1960. First Year Lapse and Default Rates. Transactions, of the Society of Actuaries 12(33): 258–93; Discussions:294–314.
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18. Tsai, C. , W. Kuo, and W. Chen, 2002, Early Surrender and the Distribution of PolicyReserves, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 31(3), 429-445.
19. Tsai, C. , W. Kuo, and W. Chen, 2003, An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: the Cointegration Approach, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 70(3), 489–508.
20. Tsai, C., W. Kuo, and D. Mi-Hsiu Chiang, 2009, TheDistribution of Policy ReservesConsidering The Policy-Year Structures of Surrender Rates and Expense Ratios, TheJournal of Risk and Insurance, 76(4), 909-931. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
99358006
100 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099358006 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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