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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/54762
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54762


    Title: 運用文字探勘分析非量化資訊協助投資人預測公司財務表現
    Using text-mining analysis on qualitative information to predict companies’ financial performance
    Authors: 葉又豪
    Contributors: 周濟群
    葉又豪
    Keywords: K-均值
    文字探勘
    量化與非量化資訊
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2012-10-30 11:43:27 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 藉由對數字和文字形式的資訊進行分析,以協助使用者有效率地分類閱讀這些非結構化文字資訊。本研究針對2002年至2011年的上市半導體公司,使用TFIDF分析非量化的資訊,並結合量化資訊的K-Means分群分析,進而對財務表現進行預測。希望能協助投資人有效降低投資風險,創造更大的報酬。以本研究之方法進行財務表現之預測,最後的預測相符率可接近60%,詳細分析後發現下列現象:一則是公司發佈較多未來的資訊導致了文件相似度計算的失真;二則是相同K-Means分群的公司,可能使用不同字眼(保守或是不保守),闡述公司的表現,使TFIDF計算過程受到影響;三則是成長率對於經濟環境變動的反應最為明顯。但無論其原因為何,只要量化資訊有所改變,非量化資訊就會有所變化。投資人便可從非量化資訊內容的變化,進而預測下一年度的量化資訊,藉以減少投資的風險,制定正確的決策。
    Reference: 一、中文文獻
    1.吳娟娟,2002,財務績效指標之重要性分析研究-以台灣化學工業上市公司為例,中原大學會計學系碩士論文。
    2.呂國征,2007,應用財務比率分析海運業經營績效之研究,銘傳大學國際企業學系碩士在職專班碩士論文。
    3.周淑芬,2009,應用財務比率評估鋼鐵業之獲利能力,國立高雄第一科技大學之碩士論文。
    4.姜程浩,2009,以資料探勘演算法建構模糊檢索系統,義守大學資訊管理系碩士論文。
    5.胡柏存,2010,公司財務危機預警模型之研究-以美國商業銀行為例,元智大學資訊管理學系碩士論文
    6.黃孝文,2008,雲端運算服務環境下運用文字探勘於語意註解網頁文件分析之研究,國立政治大學資訊管理研究所碩士論文。
    7.趙勃軒,2002,以財務比率分析區別台灣地區上市電子公司經營績效,大同大學事業經營研究所在職專班碩士論文。
    8.謝百成,2008,我國上市公司電子股新產業分類財務比率之調查,國立中正大學會計與資訊科技研究所碩士論文。
    9.謝松文,2009,以文字探勘技術萃取財務報告書之附註說明,國立中正大學會計與資訊科技研究所碩士論文。
    10.龔碧雲,2007,運用財務比率評估企業經營績效-以台灣造紙產業為例,開南大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    11.饒挺彰,2010,99年版《台灣地區主要行業財務比率刊冊》介紹,金融聯合徵信中心徵信部。 
    二、英文文獻
    1.Anthony, J.T. Lee, Ming-Chih Lin, Rung-Tai Kao, and Kuo-Tay Chen. 2010. An effective clustering approach to stock market prediction. PACIS 2010: 54.
    2.Back, B., A. Durfee, A. Visa, H. Vanharanta, and S. Schneberger. 2007. Mining text with the prototype-matching method. Information Resources Management Journal 20: 20-31.
    3.Back, B., J. Toivonen, H. Vanharanta, A. Visa. 2001. Comparing numerical data and text information from annual reports using self-organizing maps. Accounting Information Systems:249-269.
    4.Back, B., K. Sere, and H. Vanharanta. 1998. Managing complexity in large data bases using self-organizing maps. Accounting Management and Information Technologies: 191-210.
    5.Bryan, S. H. (1997). Incremental information content of required disclosures contained in management discussion and analysis. The Accounting Review 72(2), 285-301
    6.Camilla, M. 2009. Improving competitive analysis with temporal text visualization. Marketing Intelligence & Planning 28: 571-581
    7.Cole, C. and Jones C. L. (2004). The usefulness of MD&A disclosures in the retail Industry. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 19, 361~388
    8.Engelberg, J. 2008. Costly information processing: evidence from earnings announcements. AFA 2009 San Francisco Meetings Paper.
    9.Kloptchenko, A., B. Back, H. Vanharanta, T. Eklund, J. Karlsson, and A. Visa. 2002. Combining data and text mining techniques for analyzing financial report. Eighth Americas Conference on Information Systems 2002 : 20-28.
    10.Kloptchenko, A., C. Magnusson, B. Back, A. Visa, and H. Vanharanta. 2004. Mining textual contents of financial reports. The International Journal of Digital Accounting Research 4:1-29.
    11.Vincent, L. 1999. The information content of funds from operations (FFO) for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Journal of Accounting and Economics 26: 69-104.
    12.Petersen, M. A. 2004. Information: hard and soft. Preliminary and Incomplete.
    13.Qiu, X. Y., P. Srinivasan, and N. Street. 2006. Exploring the forecasting potential of company annual reports. Proceeding of American Society for Information Science and Technology 43: 1-15.
    14.Rogers, R., and Grant. J. 1997. An empirical investigation of the relevance of the financial reporting process to financial analysts. Unpublished.
    15.Salton, G. and M. J. McGill. 1983. Introduction modern Information retrival. New York: McGill.
    16.Schipper, K., 1991. Analysts` forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5(4): 105-21.
    17.Spark, J. K. 1972. A statistical interpretation of term specificity and its application in retrival. Journal of Documentation 28(January):11-21.
    18.Stein, J. C. 2002. Information production and capital allocation: Decentralized vs. hierarchical firms. Journal of Finance 57 : 1891-1921.
    19.Sun, Y. (2007). Inventory increases, MD&A disclosures, and firm performance. Working Paper, Washington University at St. Louis, MO.
    20.Visa, A., J. Toivonen, P. Ruokonen, H. Vanharanta, and B. Back. 2000. Knowledge discovery from text documents based on paragraph maps. Proceedings of the 33rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2000.
    三、其它參考資料
    1.中研院中文分詞系統 http://ckipsvr.iis.sinica.edu.tw/。
    2.中文自然語言處理開放平台 http://www.nlp.org.cn/。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    會計研究所
    99353038
    100
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0993530381
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[會計學系] 學位論文

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