政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/54903
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 111321/142230 (78%)
造访人次 : 48398280      在线人数 : 684
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54903


    题名: 金融發展與經濟成長 通貨膨脹的門檻效果
    The threshold effect of inflation on the relation between financial development and economic growth
    作者: 李怡萱
    贡献者: 郭炳伸
    林信助
    李怡萱
    关键词: 門檻迴歸模型
    通貨膨脹
    金融發展
    經濟成長
    日期: 2011
    上传时间: 2012-10-30 14:20:47 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文目的以門檻迴歸(threshold regression)方法，試分析台灣1965到2011年間銀行對民間放款總額(BL)、貨幣供給量(M2)、股市成交值(STV)等三大金融發展指標在面對不同通貨膨脹率時，與經濟成長間的關係是否會發生結構性的轉變。
    實證結果發現，支持金融發展與經濟成長之間存在門檻效果，並且以「通貨膨脹率」為門檻指標時，分別可找到兩到三個門檻值：以銀行放款為例，有兩個門檻值將觀測點分成三群，當通膨處於低通膨區(小於3.76%)，銀行放款的成長可促進經濟成長；若通膨率處於溫和通膨區(介於3.76%~5.58%)，估計係數將由正轉負；一旦到達高通膨區(高於5.58%)，通膨將加劇資訊不對稱的問題而影響放款者決策，進而對經濟成長造成顯著的負面影響。M2成長率不論通膨率的高低，皆能促進經濟成長。股市成交值成長率也是在低通膨區對經濟有正向效果，但通膨一旦高於門檻值(2.88%)，則轉為不顯著的負面效果。此外，在分析金融發展對經濟成長關係之議題時，本文經由Wald test驗證「通貨膨脹率」較傳統的時間門檻為較佳的門檻變數，其中又以銀行放款(BL)變數的通膨門檻效果最為顯著，大幅提升門檻迴歸模型的效率。
    參考文獻: Azariadis, C. and B. D. Smith (1996), “Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect,” Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 309–332.
    Bose, N. (2002), “Inflation, the Credit Market, and Economic Growth,” Oxford Economic Papers, 54(3), 412–434.
    Boyd, J. H., R. Levine, and B. D. Smith (2001), “The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(2), 221–248.
    Christopoulos,D. K. and E. G. Tsionas (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,” Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 55–74.
    De Gregorio, J. and P. E. Guidotti (1995), “Financial Development and Economic Growth,” World Development, 23(3), 433–448.
    Diamond, D. W. and P. H. Dybvig (1983), “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,” Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401–419.
    Demetriades, P. O. and K. B. Luintel (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(1), 16-41
    Gurley, J. G. and E. S. Shaw (1955), “Financial Aspects of Economic Development,” The American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538
    Hansen, B. E. (2000), “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,” Econometrica, 68(3), 575– 603.
    Hsu, C. M. and S. M. Lin (2000). “Financial Development and Endogenous Growth Model,” Industry of Free China. 9, 21-47.
    Hung, F. S. (2003), “Inflation, Financial Development, and Economic Growth,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 45–67.
    Huybens, E. and B.D. Smith (1999), “Inflation, FinancialMarkets and Long-Run Real Activity,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(2), 283–315.
    King, R. G. and R. Levine (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might be Right,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717–737.
    Khan,M. S. and A. S. Senhadji (2001), “Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,” IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 1–21.
    Levine, R. (1991), “Stock market, growth, and tax policy,” The Journal of Finance, 46, 1445-1465
    Levine, R. and S. Zervos (1998), “Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth,” American Economic Review, 88(3), 537–558.
    McKinnon, R. I. (1973), “Money and Capital in Economic Development,” Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
    Odedokun, M. O. (1996), “Alternative Econometric Approaches for Analysing the Role of the Financial Sector in Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence from LDCs,” Journal of Development Economics, 50(1), 119–146.
    Rousseau, P. L. and P. Wachtel (2002), “Inflation Thresholds and the Finance-Growth Nexus,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 777–793.
    Saint-Paul, G. (1992), “Technological choice, financial markets and economic development,” European Review, 36, 763-781
    Schumpeter, J. A. (1911), The Theory of Economic Development, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
    李建強(2006)，「銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長— 臺灣的實證研究」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，36:2，77–113。
    李建強、洪福聲、黃柏農(2005)，「金融發展與經濟成長的關係會消失嗎?─門檻迴歸模型之應用」，《經濟研究》，41:1(2005), 45-74。
    楊亦農(2009)，「時間序列分析 : 經濟與財務上之應用」，二版，雙葉書廊。
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    99351012
    100
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099351012
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 大小格式浏览次数
    101201.pdf849KbAdobe PDF2709检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈