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    題名: 目標區政策對農產品價格穩定性之研究
    其他題名: The Study of Agricultural Price Stabilization in a Target Zone Policy
    作者: 方中柔;陳孟甫
    Fang,Chung-Rou;Chen,Meng-Fu
    貢獻者: 政大經濟系
    關鍵詞: 聯立隨機微分方程;目標區政策;農產品價格目標區
    Simultaneous Stochastic Differential Equation;Target Zone Policy;Agricultural Price Target Zones
    日期: 2008-12
    上傳時間: 2013-09-16 17:40:07 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文嘗試將國際金融之目標區政策應用於農產品價格管制的議題。我們將延伸Frankel(1986)及Lai、Hu與Wang(1996)分析農產品市場的概念，配合目標區政策及聯立隨機微分方程之方法，來探討當農產品及非農產品價格皆可瞬時調整時；若政府宣告目標區政策，民眾的預期將如何影響農產品價格及其他經濟變數之穩定性。明確地說，我們想根據此模型來分析：當政府宣告實施目標區政策時，對農產品價格是否亦會產生如Krugman(1991)所說的「蜜月效果」；同時也探討此項干預政策對其他非農產品價格，是否可能需要付出波動更加劇烈的代價。 從數值模擬分析，本文所得之結論爲：首先，當政府宣告目標區政策時，若民眾亦相信政府會確實實行此項政策；透過預期的改變，對於農產品及非農產品價格的影響，其間和農產品與債券間替代程度的大小有密切關係。一般而言，替代程度的越小，農產品及非農產品價格波動亦變小，即有蜜月效果存在；反之則否。其次，將目標區的範圍縮小後，並不一定會使農產品及非農產品價格的波動穩定，亦和此替代程度的大小有密切關係。此和Krugman (1991)、Klein(1990)不同的結果或許可作爲政府實行目標區政策之參考。
    This paper tries to analyze the agricultural price control issue from the view point of target zones. We extend Frankel (1986) and Lai、Hu and Wang (1996) models, where using target zone policy and simultaneous stochastic differential equation methods, to investigate whether the honeymoon effect proposed by Krugman (1991) is present when the government adopts a target zone policy on agricultural prices. Preciously, we want to know how authorities` commitment to defending an agricultural price target zone will affect the public`s agricultural price expectation, and in turn reduce actual agricultural price. With the plausible parameter values, the conclusion of this paper is as follows. Firstly, the public`s expectation will affect the economic stability when the government announced a target zone policy, and this effect is relates to the degree of asset substitutability between agricultural products and bonds. In general, the volatility of agricultural and nonagricultural product prices will reduce if this asset substitutability degree is small; the reverse is true. Secondly, the more narrow target zone bands does not smaller the volatility of agricultural and non-agricultural product prices, and it`s closed relate with the degree of asset substitutability between agricultural products and bonds as well.
    關聯: 農業經濟叢刊, 14(1), 39-82
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 期刊論文

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