English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 110936/141856 (78%)
Visitors : 47733085      Online Users : 1043
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/64388


    Title: 空屋率影響房價嗎?
    Does Vacancy Rate Affect Housing Price?
    Authors: 陳蕙瑩
    Chen, Hui Ying
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    江穎慧

    Chang, Chin Oh
    Chiang, Ying Hui

    陳蕙瑩
    Chen, Hui Ying
    Keywords: 空屋率
    自然空屋率
    非自然空屋率
    房價
    VAR
    Vacancy Rate
    Natural Vacancy Rate
    Non-natural Vacancy Rate
    Housing Price
    VAR
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-03-04 09:17:52 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 回顧台灣歷次住宅普查統計資料,空屋率逐年上升,2000年住宅普查,空屋數為123萬宅,空屋率為17.6%;2010年住宅普查結果則顯示,空屋數為156萬宅,空屋率為19.3%。過去文獻認為房價與空屋率為負向關係,當空屋率上升表示房價有下跌的趨勢,但近年數據顯示房價與空屋率呈現同步上揚,空屋率對房價似乎不如過往有負向顯著作用,確實與過去文獻研究之情形不同。
    空屋率可解構為自然空屋率與非自然空屋率,根據理論基礎不同自然空屋率文獻分為兩種面向之探討。其一,Blank and Winnick(1953)將勞工市場中的薪資變動會受就業率的影響應用至出租市場中,認為租金的變動將會受到自然空屋率高低的影響,維持市場上租金或價格水準均衡下之自然空屋率,可視為租金或價格調整之基準。其次,住宅市場中,因資訊不完全之特性及異質性高,買賣雙方通常需花費一定時間才能尋得適當的住宅,在搜尋過程中,市場需有一定數量之空屋以維持市場正常運作,此空屋數量稱為自然空屋率。自然空屋率受到住宅市場供需結構所影響,若其住宅異質性及搜尋成本提高,摩擦性需求也隨之增加,則因應市場上「交易」與「遷徙」搜尋成本之自然空屋率也會隨之上升。
    過去文獻雖估計自然空屋率,但並無進一步討論自然空屋率、非自然空屋率與房價之間的關係,故本文先估算住宅市場之自然空屋率,再進一步探討空屋率、自然空屋率、非自然空屋率與房價之間的關係與影響程度,並對目前目前住宅市場高空屋率與高房價並存之不合理現象提出解釋。根據自然空屋率理論基礎,本文分別以房價變動均衡模型與房價空屋率聯立方程式估計自然空屋率。房價變動均衡模型之實證結果可初步瞭解都會區呈現供過於求的情形,房價理應將向下調整,但模型設計過於簡單。而房價空屋率聯立方程式之模型解釋力佳,2000至2010年台灣地區自然空屋率平均為7.38%,其中都會區之自然空屋率較高。
    本研究採用房價空屋率聯立方程式結果,並進一步建立VAR模型進行因果關係檢定、變異數分解及衝擊反應分析之實證,實證顯示空屋率與房價互為獨立因果關係,且非自然空屋率對房價之負向衝擊反應甚於空屋率及自然空屋率對房價之影響程度,因此,本文認為2000年後,空屋率對於檢視房價調整的效果有限,以非自然空屋率檢視房價調整情形,方可得較合理精確之解釋。
    Based on the statistical data collected by Population and Housing Census in Taiwan, the housing vacancy rate has shown a steady upward movement since 1980. In particular, the levels of housing vacancy rate and the numbers of vacant units have grown from 17.6% and 1,230,000 units in 2000 to 19.3% and 1,560,000 in 2010. In the past, the housing price decreased as the housing vacancy rate increased and vice versa; however, we find different situation from the previous researches that the housing price and the housing vacancy rate rise simultaneously.
    The housing vacancy rate can be divided into the natural vacancy rate and the non-natural vacancy rate. According to the two different natural housing vacancy rate theories, we discuss two different scenarios. First, Blank and Winnick(1953) stated that the rental adjustment is significantly affected by the relationship between the natural vacancy rate and the vacancy rate. If natural vacancy rate is higher than vacancy rate, the rental might rise in the future; on the contrary, if natural vacancy rate is lower than vacancy rate, the rental might fall. Second, the inherently imperfect nature of the housing market has imposed heavy burdens of search costs on both buyers and suppliers. In order to facilitate transactions in the market, there always has to be a certain fraction of vacant houses maintained continuously from one period to another. And the specific amount of vacant houses is regarded as the housing vacancy rate.
    Although the scholars estimated the natural vacancy rate but there is no literature to further discuss the relationship between the natural vacancy rate, the non-natural vacancy rate and the housing price. In hence, we calculate the two natural vacancy rates in the housing market by applying the two models based on the two theories respectively. We use the result of the two-equation structure model due to the significantly positive R-square and the average natural vacancy rate is 7.38% in Taiwan.
    Furthermore, we use the VAR model to examine granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The empirical results demonstrate that the vacancy rate and the housing price are independent which means the vacancy rate would not affect the housing price. In addition, the negative impulse response of the non-natural vacancy rate to the housing price is greater than the impulse response of the vacancy rate and the natural vacancy rate to the housing price individually. Therefore, in this empirical study, we find that using the non-natural vacancy rate to verify the adjustment of the housing price is more reasonable and precise than using the vacancy rate.
    Reference: 李瑞麟、陳蓓如(1993),”台灣空屋資源浪費與利用初探”,都市與計劃,第20卷第1期,第23-42頁。

    黃淑英(1993),”空屋資訊調查與分析體制建立之研究─以台北市之住宅為例”,國立中興大學法商學院都市計劃研究所碩士論文。

    林祖嘉、張金鶚、彭建文(1994),"台灣地區空屋率與房價調整之均衡分析", 八十二年度經濟學門專題計畫研究成果發表會論文選集,第85-106頁。

    彭建文(1994),”台灣地區空屋率之研究”,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。

    彭建文、張金鶚(1995),”台灣地區空屋現象與原因分析”,住宅學報,第3期,第45-71頁。

    彭建文、張金鶚、林秋瑾、陳永森 (1995),”台灣地區空屋調查分析”,都市與計劃,第22卷第2期,第41-56頁。

    林秋瑾、張金鶚(2000),”空(餘)屋的問題與對策分析”,內政部建築研究所研究計畫成果報告。

    張金鶚、林秋瑾(2000),”桃園縣、新竹市(縣)、台中縣、台南市、高雄縣等六縣市空(餘)屋之資料分析研究”,內政部營建署研究計畫成果報告。

    花敬群(2001),"自有率、空屋數量與住宅市場調整",住宅學報,第10卷第32期,第127-137頁。

    林祖嘉、彭建文(2003),”台灣地區自然空屋率之再估計”,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。

    林韋宏、彭建文、林子欽(2003),”住宅屬性對空屋形成機率影響之研究─以台北市為例”,住宅學報,第12卷第2期,第91-107頁。

    彭建文(2004),"台灣地區空屋狀況變遷與原因分析",住宅學報,第13卷第2期,第23-46頁。

    林佳蓉、張金鶚(2004),”空屋的迷思─台灣地區359區市鄉鎮空屋率之成因分析”,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。

    彭建文(2005),”自有住宅市場均衡空屋率分析-以台北縣市為例”,台灣土地研究,第8卷第1期,第1-21頁。

    曾建穎、張金鶚、花敬群(2005),”不同空間、時間住宅租金與其房價關聯性之研究─台北地區之實證現象分析”,住宅學報,第14卷第2期,第27-49頁。

    王婕瑄(2006),”台北地區房租乘數迷思之探討”,國立台北大學經濟學系碩士論文。

    邱妙如(2010),”房價與空屋、餘屋之關係分析─以台灣地區為例”,國立政治大學經濟學系碩士論文。

    許淑媛、袁淑湄、張金鶚(2011),”住宅個案價格分散之研究:房價水準、景氣時機與區位條件之分析”,都市與計劃,第38卷第4期,第403-426頁。

    李敏、陳勝可(2011),”EViews統計分析與應用”,電子工業出版社。

    楊奕農(2008),”時間序列分析─經濟與財務上之應用,雙葉書廊有限公司。

    行政院主計處(2011),”99年人口及住宅普查”。

    Blank, D. M. and Winnick, L., (1953), The Structure of the Housing Market, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 67: 181-208.

    Jud, G. D. and Frew,J., (1990), Atypicality and the Natural Vacancy Rate Hypothesis, Journal of the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association, Vol. 18(3): 294-301.

    Hsueh, L.M., Tseng, H. P. and Hsieh,C. C. (2007), Relationship Between the Housing Vacancy Rate, Housing Price, and the Moving Rate at the Township Level in Taiwan, in 1990 and 2000, International Real Estate Review, Vol. 10(1): 119-150.

    McCartney, J., (2010), Predicting Turning Points in the Rent Cycle Using the Vacancy Rate-An Applied Study of the Dublin Office Market, Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, Vol. 40: 11-32.

    Rosen, K. T. and Smith, L. B., (1983), The Price-Adjustment Process for Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate, American Economic Review, Vol. 73(4): 779-86.

    Tse, R. Y. C. and Macgregor, B. D., (1999), Housing Vacancy Rate and Rental Adjustment: Evidence from Hong Kong, Urban Studies, Vol. 36(10): 1769-82.

    Sivitanides, P. S., (1997), The Rent Adjustment Process and the Structural Vacancy Rate in the Commercial Real Estate Market, Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol.13(2): 195-209.

    Gabriel, S. A. and Nothaft, F. E., (1988), Rental Housing Markets and the Natural Vacancy Rate, Journal of the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association, Vol. 16(4): 419-29.

    Struyk, R. J., (1988), Understanding High Housing Vacancy Rates in a Developing Country: Jordan, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol.22(3): 373-80.

    Vakili-Zad, C. and Hoekstra, J., (2011), High Dwelling Vacancy Rate and High Prices of Housing in Malta a Mediterranean Phenomenon, J Hous and the Built Environ, Vol.26: 441-455.

    Wheaton, W.C., (1990), “Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model”, Journal of Political Economics, Vol.98(6): 1270-1292.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政研究所
    100257023
    102
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100257023
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    702301.pdf2251KbAdobe PDF2536View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback