政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/64744
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 110198/141124 (78%)
造访人次 : 46829828      在线人数 : 1135
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧:
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号",以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻,建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段,可获得较完整数据
  • 进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/64744


    题名: Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets for Political Elections
    作者: 陳樹衡
    Yu, Tongkui;Chen, Shu-Heng
    贡献者: 經濟系
    关键词: Prediction market;Agent-based simulation;Information aggregation mechanism;Prediction accuracy;Zero-intelligence agents;Favorite-longshot bias
    日期: 2012
    上传时间: 2014-03-20 16:24:07 (UTC+8)
    摘要: We propose a simple agent-based model of the political election prediction market which reflects the intrinsic feature of the prediction market as an information aggregation mechanism. Each agent has a vote, and all agents’ votes determine the election result. Some of the agents participate in the prediction market. Agents form their beliefs by observing their neighbors’ voting disposition, and trade with these beliefs by following some forms of the zero-intelligence strategy. In this model, the mean price of the market is used as a forecast of the election result. We study the effect of the radius of agents’ neighborhood and the geographical distribution of information on the prediction accuracy. In addition, we also identify one of the mechanisms which can replicate the favorite-longshot bias, a stylized fact in the prediction market. This model can then provide a framework for further analysis on the prediction market when market participants have more sophisticated trading behavior.
    關聯: Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XII Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 7124, 2012, pp 31-43
    数据类型: book/chapter
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 專書/專書篇章

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    3143.pdf351KbAdobe PDF21371检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈