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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67189
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| 题名: | 國際核不擴散與伊朗核問題分析： 聯合國、國際原子能總署與P5+1
Analyses of International Nuclear Non-proliferation and the Iranian Nuclear Issue: UN, IAEA and P5+1 |
| 作者: | 陳慕璇
Chen, Mu Hsuan |
| 贡献者: | 黃奎博
Huang, Kwei Bo
陳慕璇
Chen, Mu Hsuan |
| 关键词: | 伊朗核問題
鈾濃縮
重水
再處理
INFCIRC/214
INFCIRC/540
核子保防
核不擴散
P5+1
Iranian Nuclear Issue
Uranium Enrichment
Heavy Water
Reprocessing
INFCIRC/214
INFCIRC/540
Nuclear Safeguards
Nuclear Non-proliferation
P5+1 |
| 日期: | 2013 |
| 上传时间: | 2014-07-01 12:22:18 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 伊朗鈾濃縮、重水與再處理等問題自2002年以來一直是國際所關注的焦點，為了對伊朗核問題的來龍去脈有清楚的了解，本文先針對伊朗的整體核計畫發展進行探討，包括對伊朗的核決策產出進行分析。其次，本文接續討論國際原子能總署(IAEA)在伊朗受爭議的核計畫上所扮演的技術性保防角色，包括研究IAEA依照INFCIRC/214的核子保防，在伊朗進行的核子保防作業與進展，並討論在《附加議定書》(INFCIRC/540)尚未生效前，IAEA在伊朗的保防作業所面臨的問題與挑戰。再者，筆者以聯合國安理會介入伊朗核問題的背景與其陸續通過之決議為主軸，探討聯合國在國際核不擴散的原則下，自2006年以後在伊朗核問題上所扮演的政治性角色。最後，本文結合上述發現，進而探討美國在伊朗核問題所扮演的角色，以及伊朗自2003年起至今的EU3與P5+1核談判。
為了分析伊朗的核問題與意圖，以及伊朗和聯合國、IAEA以及P5+1之間的相互影響，本文以分析官方資料為主的方式一一檢視並分析自2002年8月以來的聯合國安理會決議及IAEA理事會決議與核子保防報告。本文研究後發現，伊朗在不放棄鈾濃縮權利的前提下仍與P5+1達成《聯合行動計畫》，主因在於伊朗經濟長期受到制裁，最高領袖Ali Khamenei在Hassan Rouhani上台後改對核談判內容有限讓步，以換取國際解除部分制裁並穩定伊朗國內經濟，進而促成伊朗願意妥協並簽署《聯合行動計畫》。
Iran’s nuclear enrichment, heavy water and reprocessing issues have been a spotlight ever since 2002. In order to get a fix on the context of Iran’s nuclear issue, this thesis, to begin with, explores Iran’s overall nuclear program development, including analyzing Iran’s nuclear decision-making process. Second, this thesis continues to discuss the technical role of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in safeguarding Iran’s contentious nuclear program, as well as to study IAEA’s current nuclear safeguards work and development based on the legal document- INFCIRC/214 in Iran. It also examines the problems and challeges the IAEA confronted while implementing its safeguards inspection on account of unratified Additional Protocol (INFCIRC/540). In addition, this thesis focues on the background of the intervention of the U.N. Security Council in Iran’s nuclear issue and the later resolutions it passed for a better understanding of the political role the U.N. in solving Iran’s nuclear issue on the basis of the principle of international nuclear non-proliferation. Last, this thesis makes good use of aforementioned analyses and further explores the U.S. role in Iranian nuclear issue and the EU3/ P5+1 nuclear talk since 2003.
This thesis mainly focues on analyzing official documents released by U.N. and IAEA in order to have a better grasp of Iran’s nuclear issue, intentions of and the interactions among U.N., IAEA, P5+1, and Iran. This thesis discovers that the reasons Iran agreed to sign Joint Plan of Action with P5+1 under its prerequisite of not renouncing the right of uranium enrichment can be attributed to the negative influence the long-term international sanctions have brought to its economy, so when Hassan Rouhani came to office, the supreme leader Ali Khamenei was willing to make a concession to a certain extent, in exchange for lifting part of international sanctions. The said lifting could stabilize its domestic economy, too. |
| 參考文獻: | 一、官方文獻
（一）聯合國決議
1. UNGA, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly at its 17th Plenary Meeting (A/RES/1(I)),” 24 January 1946.
2. UNGA, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly at its 637th Plenary Meeting (A/RES/1115(XI)),” 11 January 1957.
3. UNGA, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly at its 2309th Plenary Meeting (A/RES/3263(1974)),” 9 December 1974.
4. UNSC, “Resolution Adopted by the Security Council at its 4956th Meeting (S/RES/1540),” 28 April 2004.
5. UNSC, “Resolution 1737 Adopted by the Security Council at its 5612th Meeting (S/RES/1737(2006)*),” 23 December 2006.
6. UNSC, “Resolution 1747 Adopted by the Security Council at its 5647th Meeting (S/RES/1747 (2007)),” 24 March 2007.
7. UNSC, “Resolution 1803 Adopted by the Security Council at its 5848th Meeting (S/RES/1803(2008)),” 3 March 2008.
8. UNSC, “Resolution Adopted by the Security Council at its 6191st Meeting (S/RES/1887(2009)),” 24 September 2009.
9. UNSC, “Resolution 1929 Adopted by the Security Council at its 6335th Meeting (S/RES/1929(2010)),” 9 June 2010.
10. UNGA, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly at its 48th Plenary Meeting (A/RES/67/28),” 3 December 2012.
11. UNGA, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly at its 48th Plenary Meeting (A/RES/67/59*),” 3 December 2012.
（二）聯合國其他文件
1. UNGA/UNSC, “Identical letters dated 20 April 2010 from the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council (A/64/752-S/2010/203),” 22 April 2010.
2. UNSC, “Letter dated 31 July 2006 from the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2006/603),” 2 August 2006.
3. UNSC, “Statement by the President of the Security Council (S/PRST/2006/15),” 29 March 2006.
4. UNSC, “Letter dated 23 December 2006 from the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2006/1024),” 23 December 2006.
5. UNGA/UNSC, “Letter dated 24 March 2008 from the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General (A/62/767-S/2008/203),” 26 March 2008.
6. UNGA/UNSC, ”Letter dated 11 October 2006 from the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General (A/61/514-S/2006/806),” 12 October 2006.
（三）聯合國RevCon相關文件
1. Final Document Part I of the 1975 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF/35/I.
2. Final Document Part II of the 1980 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.II/22/II, Summary Record of the 1st Meeting (NPT/CONF.II/SR.1).
3. Final Document Part I of the 1985 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.III/64/I, Annex I.
4. Final Document Part III of the 1985 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.III/64/III, Summary Record of the 1st Meeting (NPT/CONF.III/SR.1).
5. Final Document Part III of the 1990 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.IV/45/III, Provisional Summary Record of the 1st Meeting, (NPT/CONF.IV/SR.1).
6. Final Document Part III of the 1990 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.IV/45/III, Provisional Summary Record of the 2nd Meeting of the Main Committee II (NPT/CONF.IV/MC.II/SR.2).
7. Final Document Part I of the 1995 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.1995/32 (Part I).
8. Final Document Part III of the 1995 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.1995/32 (Part III), Summary Record of the 1st Meeting (NPT/CONF.1995/SR.1).
9. Final Document Part I and II of the 2000 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.2000/28.
10. Final Document Part IV of the 2000 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.2000/28 (Part IV), Summary Record of the 1st Meeting.
11. Final Document of the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT/CONF.2010/50 (Vol. I).
（四）IAEA之伊朗核子保防報告
1. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2003/40),” 6 June 2003.
2. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2003/63),” 26 August, 2003.
3. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2003/75),” 10 November, 2003.
4. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2004/11),” 24 February, 2004.
5. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2004/34),” 1 June, 2004.
6. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2004/60),” 1 September, 2004.
7. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2004/83),” 15 November 2004.
8. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2005/67),” 2 September, 2005.
9. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2006/15),” 27 February 2006.
10. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2006/27),” 28 April 2006.
11. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2006/38),” 8 June 2006.
12. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolution 1737 (2006) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2007/8),” 22 February, 2007.
13. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2007/22),” 23May 2007.
14. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2007/48),” 30 August 2007.
15. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2008/4),” 22 February 2008.
16. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2009/35),” 5 June 2009.
17. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2009/74),” 16 November 2009.
18. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2010/10),” 18 February 2010.
19. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2010/28),” 31 May 2010.
20. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2010/46),” 6 September 2010.
21. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2010/62),” 23 November 2010.
22. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2011/54),” 2 September 2011.
23. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of the Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2011/65),” 8 November 2011.
24. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of the Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2012/9),” 24 February 2012.
25. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2012/55),” 16 November 2012.
26. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2013/6),” 21 February 2013.
27. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2013/40),” 28 August 2013.
（六）IAEA 其他官方文件
1. IAEA “Communication Dated 1 August 2005 Received from the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Agency (INFCIRC/648),” 1 August 2005.
2. IAEA Department of Safeguards, IAEA Safeguards: Staying Ahead of the Game (Vienna: IAEA, 2007).
3. IAEA, Guidance for States Implementing Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements and Additional Protocols (Vienna: IAEA, 2012).
4. IAEA, “Communication dated 8 June 2010 received from the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Agency regarding the Director General’s Report to the Board of Governors GOV/2010/28 (INFCIRC/797),” 10 June 2010.
5. IAEA “Communication dated 26 November 2004 received from the Permanent Representatives of France, Germany, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United Kingdom concerning the agreement signed in Paris on 15 November 2004 (INFCIRC/637),” 26 November 2004.
6. IAEA, “Communication dated 8 August 2005 received from the Resident Representatives of France, Germany and the United Kingdom to the Agency (INFCIRC/651),” 8 August 2005.
7. IAEA, “Communication dated 16 June 2008 received from the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the Agency concerning the text of the ‘Islamic Republic’s proposed package for constructive negotiation’ (INFCIRC/729),”18 June 2008.
8. Resolution adopted by the IAEA Board of Governors, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2003/81),” 26 November 2003.
（八）美國其他官方文件
1. Action Memorandum to Secretary Kissinger from Alfred Atherton and Nelson F. Sievering, "Nuclear Energy Agreement for Cooperation with Iran," 6 December 1974.
2. Dennis C. Blair, the Director of National Intelligence of U.S.A., “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” 2 February 2010, http://www.intelligence.senate.gov/100202/blair.pdf.
3. Department of Defense of U.S.A., “2001 Quadrennial Defense Review,” 30 September 2001
4. National Intelligence Council, “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” National Intelligence Estimate, November 2007.
5. Office of U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs to U.S. Secretary of Defense, "Nuclear Energy Cooperation with Iran – Action Memorandum," June 1974.
6. Tehran Embassy cable 11539 to State Department, "US/Iran Nuclear Agreement," 26 November 1975.
7. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, “Special National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” 23 August 1974.
8. U.S. Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review (Excerpts),” 8 January 2002, http://www.defense.gov/news/jan2002/d20020109npr.pdf.
9. U.S. Department of Defense., “2010 Nuclear Posture Review,” April 2010, http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20report.pdf.
10. U.S. Embassy Paris Cable 15305 to Department of State, “Interview with Shah,” 24 June 1974.
11. U.S. Embassy Paris Cable 15445 to Department of State, “Further Remarks by Shah on Nuclear Weapon,” 25 June 1974.
12. U.S. Embassy Tehran Airgram A-69 to State Department, “The Atomic Energy of Iran,” 11 May 1977.
13. U.S. Embassy Tehran Airgram A-76 to State Department, “The Atomic Energy of Iran,” 15 April 1976.
14. U.S. Embassy Tehran Airgram A-76 to State Department, “The Atomic Energy of Iran,” 15 April 1976.
15. U.S. Government Printing Office, “National Defense Authorization, Fiscal year 2001(Public Law 106-398),” 30 October 2000, p.262,
16. U.S. Mission, Vienna, Cable 8210 to State Department, “U.S.-Iran Nuclear Cooperation,” September 25, 1975.
17. U.S. National Security Council, “National Security Decision Memorandum 292,” 22 April 1975.
二 書籍
（一）中文專書
1. Andrew C. Winner and Toshi Yoshihara, Nuclear Stability in South Asia, 國防部史政編譯室譯印，南亞核子穩定（台北：國防部史政編譯室，2003）。
2. David A. de Vaus, Research Desigh in Social Research, 胡靜怡譯，社會研究法的設計（台北：韋伯文化國際出版有線公司，2006）。
3. Frank Barnaby, How to Build a Nuclear Bomb and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction, 高嘉玲譯，怎樣製造一顆核子彈（台北：商周出版，2004）。
4. Henry A. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, 胡國材譯，核子武器與外交政策（台北：黎明文化事業公司，1982）。
5. Victor A. Utgoff, ed., The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order, 國防部史政編譯室譯印，浮現中的核武危機：核武擴散、美國利益與世界秩序（台北：國防部史政編譯室，2003）。
6. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Second Chance- Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower, 高德源譯，美國的危機與轉機（台北：左岸文化，2008）。
7. 于群主編，美國國家安全與冷戰戰略（北京：中國社會科學出版社，2006）。
8. 王仲春，核武器 核國家 核戰略（北京：時事出版社，2007）。
9. 王仲春、夏立平著，美國核力量與核戰略（天津：國防大學出版社，1995）。
10. 王新中、龔開運著，中東國家通史－伊朗卷（北京：商務印書館，2002）。
11. 范鴻達，美國與伊朗：曾經的親密（北京：社會科學文獻出版社，2006）。
12. 張鐵偉，列國志：伊朗（北京：社會科學文獻出版社，2005）。
13. 楊興禮、冀開運、陳俊華，伊朗與美國關係研究（北京：時事出版社，2006）。
14. 趙桓，核不擴散機制歷史與理論（北京：北京知識出版社，2009）。
15. 劉強，伊朗國際戰略地位論—一種全球多視角的解析（北京：世界知識出版社，2007）。
16. 滕建群等著，國際軍備控制與裁軍概論（北京：世界知識出版社，2009）。
17. 鄭端耀，國際不擴散建制運作與發展（台北：漢威出版社，2000）。
18. 閻政，美國核法律與國家能源政策（北京：北京大學出版社，2006）。
（二）英文專書
1. Andemicael, Berhanykun and Mathiason, John, Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).
2. Arnett, Eric, ed., Nuclear Weapons after the Comprehensive Test Ban: Implications for Modernization and Proliferation (New York: Oxford University Pres, 1996).
3. Bengio, Ofra and Litvak, Meir, eds., The Sunna and Shi’a in History (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011).
4. Blackaby, Frank and Milne, Tom, ed., A Nuclear-Weapon-Free World: Steps Along the Way (New York: St. Martin’s Press, LLC, 2000).
5. Boulden, Jane, eds., The United Nations and Nuclear Orders (New York: United Nations University Press, 2009).
6. Bundy, McGeorge, Danger and Suvival: Choices about the Bomb in the First Fifty Years (New York: Random House, 1988), 3-53.
7. Cheon, Seong-whun, Toward Greater Transparency in Non-Nuclear Policy: A Case of South Korea (Seoul: The Korea Institute for National Unification, 2005).
8. Cordesman, Anthony H., and Al-Rodhan, Khalid R., Iran’s Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Real and Potential Threat (Washington D.C.: The CSIS Press, 2006).
9. Downes, Mark, Iran’s Unresolved Revolution (Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2002).
10. Doyle, James E., Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Nonproliferation: Achieving Security with Technology and Policy (MA: Elsevier Inc., 2008).
11. Mohammad, ElBaradei, The Age of Deception: Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2011).
12. Fischer, David A. V., History of the International Atomic Energy Agency: The First Forty Years (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 1997).
13. Fitzpatrick, Mark, Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment (U.K.: The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007).
14. Graham, Thomas Jr. and LaVera, Damien J., Cornerstones of Security: Arms Control Treaties in the Nuclear Era (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2003).
15. Hagerty, Devin T., The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons from South Asia (Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1998).
16. Hunter, Shireen T., Iran After Khomeini (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1992).
17. Hunter, ShireenT., Iran and the World: Continuity in a Revolutionary Decade (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1990).
18. Karem, Mahmoud, A Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East- Problems and Prospects (New York: Greenwood Press, Inc., 1988).
19. Katouzian, Homa and Shahidi, Hossein, eds., Iran in the 21st Century: Politics, Economics and Conflict (London and New York: Routledge, 2008).
20. Katzman, Kenneth, Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses (New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2008).
21. Keddie, Nikki R., and Gasiorowski, Mark J., eds., Neither East Nor West: Iran, the Soviet Union and the United States (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1990).
22. Kegley, Charles W. Jr., and Wittkopf, Eugene R., ed., The Nuclear Reader: Strategy, Weapons, War (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1985).
23. Kile, Shannon N., ed., Europe and Iran: Perspectives on Non-proliferation (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005).
24. Kok, Kenneth D., ed., Nuclear Engineering Handbook (New York: CRC Press, 2009).
25. McKnight, Allan, Atomic Safeguards: A study in International Verification (New York: United Nations, 1971).
26. McKnight, Allan, Nuclear Non-Proliferation: IAEA and EURATOM (New York: , 1970).
27. Mousavian, Hossein, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir (Washington D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).
28. Müller, Harald, ed., A European Non-Proliferation Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987), 203-257.
29. Müller, Harald, Fischer, David, and Kötter, Wolfgang, eds., Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Global Order (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994).
30. Olwell, Russel B., The International Atomic Energy Agency (New York: Infobase Publishing, 2009).
31. Patrikarakos, David, Nuclear Iran: The Birth of an Atomic State (New York: I.B. Tauris, 2012).
32. Rauchhaus, Robert, Kroenig, Matthrew, and Erik Gartzke, ed., Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation (New York: Routledge Global Security Studies, 2011).
33. Rezun, Miron, ed., Iran at the Crossroads: Global Relations in A Turbulent Decade (Boulder: Westview Press, 1990).
34. Rhodes, Richard, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986).
35. Rublee, Maria Nonproliferation Norms: Why States Choose Nuclear Restraint (Athens, GA: University of Georgia Press, 2009).
36. Sagan, Scott D., and Waltz, Kenneth, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons- A Debate Renewed (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003).
37. Simpson, John, ed., Nuclear Non-proliferation: An Agenda for the 1990s (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987).
38. Tannenwald, Nina, The Nuclear Taboo (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
39. Willrich, Mason, ed., International Safeguards and Nuclear Industry (Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 1973).
40. Wright, Robin, ed., The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and U.S. Policy (Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2010).
41. Zarimpas, Nicholas, ed., Transparency in Nuclear Warheads and Materials (New York: Oxford University Press Inc., 2003).
三、期刊
（一）中文期刊
1. 何志龍、張妮，「敘利亞與兩伊戰爭」，世界歷史，第3期(2009)：71-82。
2. 陳文生，「人面獅身霸權與核不擴散典則：美國對北韓、伊朗及伊拉克核擴散之處理」，政治科學論叢，第43期(2010)：83-118。
3. 陳文生，「伊朗輸出伊斯蘭革命之分析與評估」，新世紀宗教研究，第1卷第1期(2002)：175-200。
4. 陳世民，「歐巴馬政府核武管制政策之轉變：朝向核擴散或無核武世界？」全球政治評論，第33期(2011)：9-18。
5. 陳牧民，「南亞核武議題：歷史發展與現況」，全球政治評論，第38期(2012)：15-20。
6. 廖文義，「伊朗核問題與國際政治：大國的態度與作為」，全球政治評論，第16期(2006)：101-130。
7. 蔣仁符，「危險的布希主義－美國的新三合一核子軍事戰略」，中華戰略學刊，第94期(2005)：216-242。
8. 戴正龍，「歐巴馬政府的核外交與核戰略」，全球政治評論，第38期(2012)：1-8。
（二）英文期刊
1. Aghazadeh, Mahdieh, “A Historical Overview of Sanctions on Iran and Iran’s Nuclear Program,” Journal of Academic Studies, Vol. 56 (2013): 137-160.
2. Amir, M. Haji-Yousefi, “Iran’s Foreign Policy during Ahmadinejad: From Confrontation to Accommodation,” Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol.9, No.2 (Summer, 2010): 1-23.
3. Bechhoefer, Bernhard G., and Stein, Eric, “Atoms for Peace: The New International Atomic Energy Agency,” Michigan Law Review, Vol. 55, No. 6 (April, 1957): 747-798.
4. Betts, Richard K., “Incentives for Nuclear Weapons: India, Pakistan, Iran,” Asian Survey, Vol.19, No.11 (November, 1979): 1053-1072.
5. Bowen, Wyn Q., and Kidd, Joanna, “The Iranian Nuclear Challenge,” International Affairs, Vol.80, No.2 (March, 2004): 257-276.
6. Braun, Chaim and Chyba, Christopher F., "Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2 (2004): 5-49.
7. Burr, William, “A Brief History of U.S.- Iranian Nuclear Negotiation,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 65, No.1 (January/February, 2009): 21-34.
8. Carranza, Mario E., “Can the NPT Survive? The Theory and Practice of US Nuclear Non-proliferation Policy after September 11,” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 27, No. 3 (December, 2006): 489-525.
9. Chafetz, Glenn, "The Political Psychology of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," The Journal of Politics, Vol. 57, No. 3 (1995): 743-55.
10. Chen, Kane, “Nuclear Decision-Making in Iran: A Rare Glimpse,” Middle East Brief, No.5 (May, 2006): 1-10.
11. Chubin, Shahram and Lizwak, Robert S., “Debating Iran’s Nuclear Aspirations,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 26, No.4 (2003): 99-114.
12. Coffey, Joseph I., "Nuclear Guarantees and Nonproliferation," International Organization, Vol. 25, No. 4 (1971): 836-844.
13. Cohen, Avner and Graham, Thomas, “An NPT for Non-members,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 60, No.3 (May/June 2004): 40-44.
14. Crail, Peter, "Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1540." Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 13, No. 2 (2006): 355-99.
15. D. M. Edwards, “International Legal Aspects of Safeguards and the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol.33, No.1 (January, 1984): 1-21.
16. Einhorn, Robert J., “A Transatlantic Strategy on Iran’s Nuclear Weapon,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 4 (June, 2010): 21-32.
17. Eisenstadt, Michael and Khalaji, Mehdi, “Nuclear Fatwa: Religion and Politics in Iran’s Proliferation Strategy,” Policy Focus, No. 115 (September, 2011).
18. Eisenstadt, Michael, “Russia Arms and Technology Transfers to Iran: Policy Challenges for the United States,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 31, No. 2 (March, 2001): 15-22.
19. Fever, Peter D., and Niou, Emerson M. S., “Managing Nuclear Proliferation: Condemn, Strike or Assist?” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 40, no.2 (1996): 209-233.
20. Goldschmidt, Bertrand, “A Historical Survey of Nonproliferation Policies,” International Security, Vol. 1 (1977): 69-87.
21. Hergiz, Christopher, “IAEA Safeguards,” International Security, Vol. 7, No. 4 (1983): 195-199.
22. Huth, Paul K., "Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debate," Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.2 (1999): 25–48.
23. Huth, Paul K., “The Extended Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 34, No.2 (1990): 270-290.
24. Hymans, Jacques E. C., “Theories of Nuclear Proliferation,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 13(2006): 3.
25. Islam, Md. Thowhidul, “Nuclearization of Iran; the Policy of China,” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September, 2011): 389-402.
26. Jervis, Robert, “Rational Deterrence Revisited,” World Politics, Vol. 31, No.2 (1979): 289-324.
27. Kamminga, Menno T., “The IAEA Convention on Nuclear Safety,” The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 4 (1995): 872-882.
28. Kerr, Paul, “Iran, Russia Reach Nuclear Agreement,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, No.3 (April, 2005): 35-36.
29. Lindsay, James M., and Takeyh, Ray, “After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.89, No.2 (March/April, 2010): 33-49.
30. Luttwak, Edward N., “Of Bombs and Men,” Commentary, Vol. 76, No.2 (1983): 77-82.
31. Maleki, Abbas, “Decision Making in Iran’s Foreign Policy: A Heuristic Approach,” Journal of Social Affairs, Vol. 19, No. 73 (Spring, 2002): 39-59.
32. Medeiros, Evan S., “Russian-Iranian Reactor Contract Restarts Work at Bushehr Complex,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 26, No.4 (May/June, 1996): 25.
33. Meier, Oliver, “Iran and Foreign Enrichment: A Troubled Model,” Arms Control Today, Vol.36, No.1 (January/Februay, 2006): 26-27.
34. Montgomery, Alexander H., "Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network," International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (2005): 153-87.
35. Parker, Lyn, “International Safeguards against the Diversion of Nuclear Materials to Non-Peaceful Uses,” The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 4 (October, 1978): 711-737.
36. Pendley, Robert, Lawrence Scheinman and Richard W. Butler, “International Safeguarding as Institutionalized Collective Behavior,” International Organization, Vol. 29, No.3 (Summer, 1975): 585-616.
37. Preez, Jean du, "Keeping the NPT Together: A Thankless Job in a Climate of Mistrust," Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 13, No. 1 (2006): 1-16.
38. Quillen, Chris, “Iranian Nuclear Weapons Policy: Past Present and Possible Future,” Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.6, No.2 (June, 2002): 17-24.
39. Rosen, Steven, “Proliferation Treaty Controls and the IAEA,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 11, No. 2 (1967): 168-175.
40. Sagan, Scott D., “How to Keep the Bomb From Iran,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No.5, (September/ October, 2006): 45-59.
41. Sagan, Scott D., “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security, Vol.3 (1996/1997): 54-86.
42. Scheinman, Lawrence, “Multinational Alternatives and Nuclear Nonproliferation,” International Organization, Vol. 35, No. 1 (1981): 77-102.
43. Schulz, John J., “Washington Unable to Derail Russian-Iranian Nuclear Accord,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 25, No.3 (April, 1995): 20.
44. Squassoni, Sharon, “Looking Back: The 1978 Nuclear Nonproliferation Act,” Arms Control Today, Vol. 38, No.10 (December, 2008): 64-67.
45. Timerbaev, Roland and Welsh, Susan, "The IAEA`s Role in Nuclear Arms Control: Its Evolution and Future Prospects," Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 1, No. 3 (1994): 18-31.
46. Walker, William, “Nuclear Order and Disorder,” International Affairs, Vol. 74, No.4 (2000): 703-724.
47. Weber, Steve, "Realism, Detente, and Nuclear Weapons," International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 1 (1990): 55-82.
48. Willrich, Mason, “Safeguarding Atoms for Peace,” The American Journal of International Law, Vol. 60, No.1 (January, 1966): 34-54.
49. Wolfsthal, Jon B., “Iran, Russia Sign Nuclear Deal, Raising Proliferation Concerns,” Arms Control Today, Vol.25, No. 1 (January/February, 1995): 21.
四、學術論文
（一）中文會議論文
1. 陳文生，〈美國中東政策之趨勢與評析〉，《美國外交情勢與其未來走向》研討會。台北市：中華歐亞基金會，2007年4月20日。
2. 陳文生，〈強制外交與禁核擴散：伊拉克、伊朗及北韓案例〉，《制度、治理與秩序》學術研討會。義守大學：台灣政治學會，2007年09月29-30日。
（二）英文會議論文
1. Mohammad, Ghannadi-Maragheh, "Atomic Energy Organization of Iran," Presented at The 27th World Nuclear Association Annual Symposium, London: World Nuclear Association, 4-6 September 2002.
2. Shmuel Bar et al., “ Iranian Nuclear Decision Making under Ahmadinejad,” in The Eighth Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel’s National Security: “Israel at Sixty: Tests of Endurance”Held in Israel by the Institute for Policy and Strategy, 20-23 January 2008.
五、網站資料
（一）官方網站
1. Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran
http://www.cbi.ir/default_en.aspx
2. IAEA
http://www.iaea.org/
3. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic of Iran http://www.mfa.gov.ir/?siteid=3
4. Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations New York
http://www.iran-un.org/
5. U.S. Department of State
http://www.state.gov/
6. U.S. Department of the Treasury
http://www.treasury.gov/Pages/default.aspx
7. UN Documents for Iran http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-documents/iran/
8. UN
http://www.un.org/en/
9. UN Security Council Iran Sanctions Committee http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1737/index.shtml
（二）非官方網站
1. Arms Control Association
http://www.armscontrol.org/
2. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
http://carnegieendowment.org/
3. Council on Foreign Relations
http://www.cfr.org/
4. Global Security.org
http://www.globalsecurity.org/
5. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
http://www.iiss.org/
6. Iran Watch
http://www.iranwatch.org/
7. ISIS Nuclear Iran
http://isisnucleariran.org/
8. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) http://cns.miis.edu/index.htm
9. Nuclear Threat Initiative
http://www.nti.org/
10. National Security Archive, The
http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/
11. World Nuclear Association
http://www.world-nuclear.org/ |
| 描述: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
99253011
102 |
| 資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099253011 |
| 数据类型: | thesis |
| 显示于类别: | [外交學系] 學位論文
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